frosty ground
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Posts posted by frosty ground
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23 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Im not sure I agree with some of the posts this morning.
Between Xmas and the New year its likely to be unsettled with snow on higher ground in the N. Im not sure I would refer this as stormy though just bog standard typical zonality. Worringly if you're seeking a cold spell for the New year the outlook could become even worse.as I can see pressure rising from the S with the jet taking a SW-NE trajectory. This will result in very mild temps spreading across the UK into Europe. I continue to be amazed at just how much warmth is being predicted especially for Scandi, Siberia.
Only positive for the New year is the ouput can only get better because it cannot get any worse.
GFS Operation Run isn't really to be trusted
I don't see Very Mild South westerlies..... Other than the occasional passing depression.-
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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Barring a few GEFS which survive the zonal onslaught the SS Save Christmas has now sent out an SOS!
The surface temps though dont look that mild , looking at De Bilt and given the set up which would mean northern parts of the UK would be colder there still could be some snow during Christmas week.
There are still differences in the medium term between the big 3 with how low pressure exits the ne USA and the speed of that .
So not great this morning but the jet still remains on a more southerly track upto T240 hrs and there’s always a chance of a surprise with that.
Yes the possibility of snow up here is real....-
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6 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Just the operational. The ensembles show a spike up too before returning to more normal values.
As the saying goes probably not the best idea taking one operation run at its word
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18 minutes ago, mulzy said:
We have to be realistic and as been flagged for a while, unsettled weather (wet and windy and often mild) is now clearly signposted. The 6-10 day 500Mb anomaly charts from both the GEFS and EPS illustrate this perfectly.
Luckily, we are still early in winter but we can confidently write off the next 10-15 days. As ever, way too much hope casting happening in here. All in all, a very poor outlook if snow/cold/wintry weather is what you are after.
That chart is from the GFS right? is it just the Operation run or is it the Full Ensemble Mean?
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1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
So if your so certain of a mild and wet January, and now Glacier point also saying a similar theme yesterday, why was in only a week maybe 2 at the most that him and others were posting very good reasoned out posts all pointing to our north east in the new year, very confident forecasts explaining why it looks nearer enough a dead cert???
This happens every year and it seems peeps never learn.
Signals and teleconnections seem to be as fickle as anything else imho.
Can you or glacier point explain what's suddenly gone wrong on what seems to be a chatostrophic scale?
Cheers
Things change and they can change back or there could be another set of signals that show something in a few weeks time. Just another winter on NETW
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The slider that we was told earlier was impossible looks to be a bit further south.-
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Vs
You can see the difference over the pole-
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
A very interesting set of 12z suites emerging with the anti PVTL in full swing day 5 !!!!
Anti PVTL?
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Hmmmm Atlantic is quieting down a bit here, probably a reflection of the height getting further over the pole form the alaskan ridge. -
9 minutes ago, Smartie said:
Yep I don't mind this yawn fest as some call it & I'm not looking forward to the change to a more mobile setup, unless of course it brings the chances of wintry weather which living down south is not the case at the moment so I'd rather this settled spell continued.
Settled and foggy her for the next 3 days. Not great!
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Your right it does see those resultant PPN type charts with the whole country covered in a blanket, interestingly though I don't, and I doubt most professional meteorologists would either.
I think those charts show the potential of Wintry PPN, they do not show a blanket of snow, Not sure why you would think they do. Also I am not sure why you are making a point just so you can dismiss it as no one else as stated there will be blanket of snow. What you replied to was a post highlighting the potential for a slider, you then dismissed it as a possibility.
The synoptics clearly show potential for Wintry weather more so the North and east of the low, and is clearly possible.-
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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
TBH I couldn't see that type of result occurring from that setup, plus theres really no room for manoeuvre there - if that high is even a tiny bit more NE then its not happening.
Interestingly the GFS does see that type of result from that setup
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We get a slider of sorts on the GFS around the 192 time, which could giver wintry potential to the North and east of where it tracks.
Or what Swilliam said-
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Looking at the 06z run changes around Greenland have allowed some wintry potential to again turn up on boxing Day
High ground up north setup but
Quickly followed by a soaking for the south!
and from this morning run, we are starting to se a firming up of a short lived cold outbreak around the 26/28th-
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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Not in the 15d period from now.
EDIT : It might change but not significantly enough for a proper cold spell to suddenly develop.
You where talking about the extended period.... is this now upto 15 days?
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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Ext eps are even crapper than the overnight run.
Which will change again in the morning....
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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:
I think the 12z is going to pull some interest out of the hat as of the 27th of December. Colder air back over the UK, with -8 850s creeping towards northern Scotland. Sorry, can't post images at the moment.
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Don't know why my post was removed but its a fact that the Euro heights are a problem for the UK in terms of getting a good dig of colder air down across the uk next week as things stand..some on here need to lighten up and grow a sense of humour!!
Or post in the banter thread for jokes? Not sure why you think your jokes are immune to the rules everyone else follows?
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6 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
Coming down again 4-6 inches.... love convective snow up here.... six inches where it first started laying.... Aguero scores too wahoo.... got trees bowing now... really chunky flakes again... power lines/ phone line really covered....
New ruler for you at Christmas
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3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
Got between 1-2 inches now wow.... was puddles half an hour ago.... take that for no snow will lay Diane oxberry
Probably why the roads are not gritted
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Snow here and a dusting already on all surfaces
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You can't say heights are too high over Europe now can you?-
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Never mind the Northerly bit, this is going to turn into a ridiculous Easterly as the high topples, exept this time via more plausable and less convoluted route.
Was thinking the same, the correction west and North will lead to a better Easterly assuming the same outcome of collapsing high.
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could lead to a rather could Northerly this.(note a further correction west)-
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The possibility of wintry weather after Christmas is still very much on, It looks to have firmed up a bit to.