[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Look at what the GEM is doing to the JET at @144 (Curving back the northern arm sending cold towards the UK and supporting the Block. 

The GFS on the other hand @138 is simply splitting the Jet and sending both the cold and the block to the east.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

not gonna happen on this Run, The Jet is heading south East and not curving back south west around the high!

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

13 minutes ago, comet said:

This was the ecm 12z on the 31/12/17 t144

and this is todays ecm  at t96

Notice how the ridge of high pressure is further south even on the ecm and if this continues by the time it ridges north it may be to far south and there will not be any cold uppers to tap into. Not looking forward to the mornings charts.

You mean the shortwave that helps drag the cold east later is over iceland now

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

On the GFS 18z run we need to the jet curve back west, thats the driver of the cold air backing west withiut it its a no go

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some not so good news:

How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

Essex weather has access to mogreps?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

In so many ways that’s a downgrade.

1) the shortwave near Iceland flattening the high more.

2) the low over Europe not clearing as much to the south east.

 

It also stops pushing the high east..... as per the 120 hours chart.

 

Has anyone been having redirects from the mete website?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

I see we are reduced to posting the GEM ensembles

 

 

 

 

I posted them to show how the OP was not really supported (For Clarity the OP is not shown but you can see the spread)

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Indeed it does brings in a very mild southwesterly from Azores by day 10 I wouldn’t blame those who wrote off the remainder for January if that verified. Good thing there’s so much water to go under the bridge.. 

Why it's just a snap shot in time and the pattern we have seen so far this winter looks to carry on.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Just now, mulzy said:

Is there any where we can see the output from MOGREPS?  Last I heard the met Office is a public institution that you and I finance!

Which sells products so it can help fun it self!

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

This is the GEM Ensembles, which suggest to me that the Op is not really supported

And further south (London)

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

 yes but even in split jet situations its bias is to put more energy into the northern arm thats why it so often backtracks towards other models in Scandi high set ups

No issue with energy in the Northern Arm, its about how that Arm behaves and if you can get it curving around a high,

i would suggest this high being forcast is too weak for that to happen, and the ECM and GEM will move towards the GFS as the GFS moves towards the ECM.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

So unless you get a Jet Profile like this you can forget about the Cold backing West.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The foehn effect is localised. The foehn effect doesn't cause a whole continent to be massively above the norm in terms of upper cold. On the whole, Europe and west Russia have been anomalously warm for weeks. 

It takes only a few days for the Continent to cool down, The synoptics in this case draws even miler uppers arss the west of Europe (again on the GFS at least)

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Need to see the Jet do this, Nothing wrong with it going over the top as long as  it curves back, not sure any model is showing this thou.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Well yes. We're at the point of peak land mass cooling and at the time where European cold pools can develop in situ. To see virtually the whole of mainland Europe in positive uppers in early January is remarkable to me. 

Though I guess a lot of us are now seeing things like this as the norm! 

The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

 Southerly winds from Africa
 Still from a southerly direction. 

Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's actually quite remarkable how far N the warm uppers spread into Europe given the time of year. 

Is it? 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So as the GFS ignites for another run 

if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

But that's not going to happen as the Jet will simply push it South East, the Jet is not curving back (at least on the GFS)

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So the gfs which has known northern arm of jet bias has the high less north than the other models surprise surprise

But the Jet is Split on the GFS

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks crap to me at 108? (too much Atlantic energy).

Cant see how this run can be saved already!!

Don't look at this then

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Snow showers into the SE by sunday morning on GFS?

not on the 12z...... Uppers to warm at that point



Jet Stream still not conducive to back the cold West,

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The correction west by the 06z Run has been undone b the 12z run.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

The GFS 06z Run has moved towards the ECM, But i usually find that all models converge on the correct solution by moving towards each other.

Battleground synoptics on offer from the Met Office Update the phrase (moves erratically Eastward) is good for large snowfalls in this setup.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

GFS Control Run is showing a correction West of the block also.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Not sure the Jet as it is is conducive to backing cold west.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

4 minutes ago, comet said:

Nothing strange about my post at all. I to am impressed by the uppers for the weekend but I am just wary that what we are seeing in the models is a slow erosion of the amplification of the high. I really hope I am wrong here otherwise like I said above the lovely cold upper temps that you have posted will be to the south of the UK by the weekend.

Many a time we have seen a potent easterly heading for the UK only to see the high ending up over the UK with the very cold air down in southern Europe.

Can you show this sinking high, i took the time to produce the GFs that does not show what you said it did so can you produce the UKM or ECM? in the time frames you mentioned?