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frosty ground

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Posts posted by frosty ground

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mulzy said:

    Yep, the NWP all trending the wrong way. To be honest the Westerly “blast” was never going to deliver much here. Temps of 8C with a breeze - yippee!! Just disappointed with the medium term outlook now - the dreaded AZH showing its hand.

    Yes there was never really a cold spell for your kocation only ever on FI at 7 days plus away so there can be no shock that there has been a change after all your always telling people not to get sucked in..... i suppouse the only saving grace is that tge cold westerly is going to deliver snow for my location which was predicted almonst 10 days out. Not sure i like the look of the storm either but either a way a vwry wintry week coming up

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    No idea mate :)

     I know the bbc apps are unreliable but if peeps type in moorside on the bbc app and take a look im not sure how on earth there are no warnings?

    Unless of course it a pile of utter waste, in which case it begs the question why dont they ditch them?

    Warnings will come in the morning for our region. Wont really start in our region till tuesday morning and then later in the day for lower areas.

     

    Looks good foor moorside as you say.... might be a decent total by Friday after which temps really plummet 

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    Right then. Haven’t caught up with this thread yet so these are just my initial thoughts. I have no shame in saying that this is a rather imby post because it has to be as the coastal strip will be experiencing different conditions to inland next week regardless of what happens. 

     The first thing that strikes me is the impressive lapse rates that we will have from Tuesday morning onwards,with 500 mbar temperatures constantly between -35 and -40; so potential for some very lively showers. Lightning will occur probably quite frequently around the area, especially during the night and in the coldest pockets of air.

    850 mbar temperatures do not seem to me to be conducive for coastal falling snow all the time, so I am only expecting to see snow in very heavy and/or prolonged showers. At the very least though I’m expecting a rarther interesting week of  convection with showers of hail, graupel and sleet, with wet snow at times.

    Friday night looks interesting to me if forecasts continue to suggest winds veering northerly; I can see a snow event for the coast at that point. 

     In summary, I am not expecting any lying snow here except for possibly an hour or two here and there, although I expect coverings of hail and graupel to be rather persistent.  I do expect to see falling snow but only transiently.  Apart from that, looking forward to the convective potential and to reading other reports from across the region even though they will most likely make me jealous. :-) 

    Seems reasonable for coastal locations.

    Any runners could give you a rather larger fall of snow depending on track, so its worth watching.

    Regardless of the snow there are going to be some lifely showers accompanied by some strong gust of wind.

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    At the risk of being lambasted for not seeing a wintry nirvana next week (runners aside which has always been the caveat), I’m still struggling to see where sustained snow cover is likely away from elevation with an onshore flow. 

    At the risk of being a little silly where are the post showing low level on shore snow cover?

    • Like 2

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

    And Monday as well 

    Overnight rain clears southeast around midday. A colder day, with sunshine but also blustery showers follows. Freezing level falls from 600m at dawn, to 300m by the afternoon, and then to 100m during the evening. Showers will turn increasingly to snow at all levels, with some icy conditions possible.

     

    plus now netweather going for 80cm here.... 

    That is not matching up with other Sites...... All use GFS..... Like XCweather. for example

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Dexter said:

    Peak District forecast looks promising for Monday. States that freezing levels will fall to 100m by the evening. Surely this indicates snow, including accumulating snow, likely at all levels by the evening?

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/mountains/peak-district

     

    Strong westerly winds, sunny spells and occasional sleet, hail and snow showers will lead to winter conditions across this hills. Icy surfaces are likely, and whilst accumulations will mostly be above the freezing level, of around 200m, some snow is possible to valley floors during heavier bursts.

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFSOPUK12_192_25.png

    Snow Depth at day 8*..... Only after this chart do things get interesting.

    Yes we know the GFS overplays the 850's
    Yes we know snow charts are useless 24 hours away
    Yes we know something else that you want to say about Southern England and how warm it will be.

    But we can take from this run is, the potential is there fro snow as early s Monday night how much and how low is to be confirmed.

    • Like 2
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