frosty ground
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Posts posted by frosty ground
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The 06z Run with lots of cold air over northern Scandi.-
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13 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Yep - nothing of note from the extended eps. - classic +NAO signal.
O no the Extended EPS have changed again, is almost like they change day to day like all the other extended models and ensembles forecast.,
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10 minutes ago, Danny* said:
So after days of trashing the GFS for not showing good charts, it's suddenly the best model out there because it's showing an improvement? Interesting.
18z is a step back in the right direction but it's still not brilliant, a lot of energy still going into the Northern arm.
I must of missed the post declaribg the GFS the best model.....
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK and dry for most
It was obvious what was going to happen on the 144 chart....
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The Met Office have described the high as a cold block......, Is that an accurate description to me it looks like a standard ridge thrown up with Cold air going down its eastern flank, had the ridge been thrown up over the Atlantic it would be described as a toppler.
Speaking of topplers-
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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:
The problem is without a proper undercut or cold to tap into, this chart is essentially cold with rain. To get an easterly from this would be at best day 8, even then unlikely.
dont mean to be a negative nelly but I feel it's realistic
The Azores high is just about to ridge in the raise height over Europe..... not a great chart really
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
GFS again bringing in PM incursions into FI.
Something to look forward to.
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Judging by the output so far I think we can dismiss any possabillty of any sort of snowfall next week, any encroachment of the Atlantic over the UK will be met with Warm uppers and rain.
Freezing rain if the surface is cold enough for a time.-
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GEM has left the party, Warm uppers and the Block sulks away East.,
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Those uppers are warm but at the surface I think it would be slightly colder. -
The risk of one or more Snowfalls from the mobile period.
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Now that's what we want to see-
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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
NAVGEM06z is a carbon copy of UKMO 00z if you wanted to know what 168 was like
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0
To warm fo any snow.
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16 minutes ago, shaky said:
Control has higher pressure ovet scandinavia at 96 hours compared to 00z!!gfs wat are you doing?
Had the uppers been lower you may have seen some snow of that, but all models now agree on (or have converged upon) the uppers being to warm for any battleground type setup (at least a wintry one)
Ensemble Member 1 has a better go at it -
@Steve Murr expected an 80% swing from the GFS towards the other models i would say that was a good call but its the other 20% swing from the other models that have killed the cold chances.
As for which model won.... well if its cold vs not cold then the GFS won but if you actually examine it then you can see that the GFS struggled the most but as i and a few others have stated there was always going to be a convergence
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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Give the poor model a chance it’s only just worked out what’s happening let alone placement....
No real change tonight - GEM great - UKMO following with colder air day 7
ECM expected to be great...
S
But its the movement of the other models that makes it a non event.
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
No time to post just yet
but look at the GFS - how much it’s transformed to the euros
todays swingometer
UKMO / GEM 10% to GFS
GFS. 60% to Euros
original estimate 80/20 looks to be about right...
But that swing to the GFS has removed the chance of Block in a good position to around zero!
Has it has been said many times by many people No one Model is ever right hat far out and what we always see is a convergence, unfortunately in this case any movement away from the GEM/ECM/UKM leads to not much of anything.-
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
The 850s are not relevant on ukmo - it will be very cold at the surface
And if a front hits those uppers its going to be rain
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
UKMO 144 has cold air in place-
And i'm sure it will show the Atlantic undercutting thereafer-
GFS is dreadful, again.
Not really, But the movement of the high from 120 to 144 is north -
The Jet is not Curving back, So the Block will get pushed East / South East.
It is worth noting that the Northern arm of the Jet has a more vertical look to it over iceland. -
The Low over Spain is further east and the Heights are lower, if you wan to see a decent Easterly blast you need both Low heights and Low Pressure to be closer to Italy.
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4 minutes ago, karyo said:
Quite a change from its earlier output that was holding the block firm.
Any Links? Never Mind seen it now
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
I have looked though the eps clusters now and apart from the uncertainty re the manifestation of the easterly and its duration, the extended looks much more mobile leaning (re cluster percentages) than previous output. Have to wait and see what the 12z thinks about that
AKA the Extended EPS has changed yet again.
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Ensemble 1 shows what we want from the Jet, Curved back South West.-
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Model output discussion - into 2018
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not sure there is any support for any snowfall next week as the uppers are once again to high, they do drop back below zero but the air then is atlantic sourced and is there fore not a classic undercut.