[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Sorry NWS i meant Tuesday night into wednesday

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

who said that FG?

Not the ruddy BBC app i hope!!

Yep lol 

Bbc app never had me down as snow until midnight and the temp is falling

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

40 mph gust and heavy snow over night wednesday..... hope that holds true.

 

 

Temperature has dropped now around 1 degree and falling.... last shpwe was intense horizontal hail pretty impressive

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Big rumble of thunder- the rain continues !!

Saw the lightining towards waterhead lees

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

would imagine its already snow higher up than here- frostyG?

 

Sleet atm not expecting snow till later

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Its worth keeping an eye out for Wednesday night Thursday on the apps any shift south should reduce the max temperature..... For example im seeing +7 Thursday morning ATM 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Showers are starting to liven up now...... Lighting detected over Northern Ireland.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Here are the 850s from wed to thu- theres no way ukmo hasnt shifted that low south- like i said, the milder uppers spread up through our region into siuthern scotland on the 00z run..

Its a big time step.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Its not a slider

Thats a helpful post 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Slider Gate take 55

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

Really should assume this is an outlier after constant runs showing a severe storm...

 

6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs. Even so even with a southwards correction it'll still be too marginal for coastal areas.. but marginally better inland

The Low being modeled less sever and further south is across the board so far.

This is not a one Model aberration 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

 Vs

Only slight corrections from now on please.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Hmmmmmm

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Just now, Weather-history said:

NAVGEM 06z

Not even developed at that point.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Unless I'm mistaken the GFS has shifted south.....

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Nice developments from the ICON. It makes an attempt to build a ridge in the Atlantic at the end of the week. Also pressure a bit lower in Iberia which is important.

Pressure rising over Ibrea is a direct result of the low pulling further north so as it sinks south therefore pressure to the south must fall

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

two more corrections like this and we end up in the sweet spot.

PPN Chart Is probably the best guide.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

850's show it well

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Further south, but probably to far north for this run at least...... Can the other models carry on this trend?

It's further south becasue its not as intense NWS.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Low is on its way on the ICON (First model out),,,,,,, Looks like its getting here earlier (when you scan the last 24 hours) Also looking like a track change already. 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

What time is this meant to start as the skies here looking a weird colour

Overnight, earlier higher up you are.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Is this Taf for tonight/ tomorrow or tomorrow/ wed?

they are 24 hour forecast I think.

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGCC

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

TAF update. 

 Liverpool just rain showers and heavy rain showers.

Manchester  heavy rain showers until midnight; rain/snow showers until 06:00; snow showers after 06:00. 

 Cumulonimbus only for Manchester which surprises me a bit. 

The airport is sheltered by the Wirria...... Storms will break out to the north surley. 

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

I'm slightly confused with the Scottish warning as the Impact Chart has been adjusted to make the event less likely but with more impact.

I think the amounts shown for the higher areas of our region are on the low side but we will soon see.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards]

And its up!!!!
2-6 cm of snow may fall in places, especially on higher ground above 100-200m. A slushy cover of 1 or 2 cm seems more likely at lower levels and closer to the western coasts, some areas seeing very little or no snow. Some drifting may occur on cross-Pennine routes in the strong to gale winds