[Model output discussion - mid January]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Some sort of Easterly is appearing in the  SEMI RELIABLE timeframe now it appears  from especially ukmo and jma,and ecm not far behind.Gfs just seems to flip flop every 6 hours at the moment ,so can’t make much sense of it at the moment

yet some members say there is NO sign of any Easterly ,ok,so what models are you looking at then to come to that conclusion 

Thats right from an actual easterly to a low slipping south brininging with it token 24 hour easterly flow.

More than happy to let people chase phantoms but maybe they shouldn't do it at thoe cost of asking who cares and thats rubbish for me type post that have been made today.

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Your hatred of easterlies is remarkable.

Did one freeze your nether regions in a previous life? ?

Love them some of the best snow falls come from them.

But there isn't one to be seen.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

The trend away from Easterlies is very clear now from the GEFS.... the classic sine wave formation showing lows crossing the uk very prevalent. 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

4 minutes ago, igloo said:

looks like the easterly will just miss with all the energy going over the top and we could well get the dreaded south westerly in the latter stages 

Short lived cold spell easterly a billion miles away even the north westerlies are miles off. Not a great winter run

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Looks like a north westerly in on the way

Then again that high just wont back west. Either way Easterly is dead. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Froth going on in the MO about potential Easterly.

Problem is it's at T+36244456772

I could only work out the date from 999999 days from now but that would be boxing day 4755

Probably downgrade to +1 uppers and rain by then thou 

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Who cares about a north westerly? I’d say there’s a fine balance between easterlies and something less desirable. UKMO looks really quite good to me, some of the air originates from deepest darkest Siberia. It has a more prolonged look to it too.

I do hence why Im posting about it...... Is that okay?

The uppers don't look that special at 120 and if the run follows this morning the 168 chart will have a high over the UK with the coldest air to the east,

The GFs has swept the very cold air away by day 8.

 Vs 

North Westerly more likely to verify (based on GFS 12z and GEFS 06z), just hope that high can back west a little,

Everyone seemed to ignore the very cold runs on the GEFS has been removed on the 06z run!

[Model output discussion - mid January]

After a brief milder sector the very cold air is coming in from the north West, just need that high to back up a bit,

[Model output discussion - mid January]

UKM looks okay fora  spell of dry and chilly weather but the Atlantic is not far away from flattening the ridge, we can just hope the jet digs south east again to give us another shot at a North Westerly,

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Looks like another Cold North Westerly is on the way, once that ridge pulls back a bit.

 

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If ever we needed a stonking (not just a decent) EC46 then its today.

Because we all know its going to verify and not change by Friday. 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Vs 

The 06z GEFS has cleared the board of the very cold easterlies blink and you miss it type output, but what it has done is opened the door to the North West, with the majority of runs showing several cold shot from the north west over the next 10 days.

As a result the mean has gone up a few degrees but that's to be expected.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Now that's a Northerly 

I suspect all this easterly nonsense  will soon be put to bed and once the Mid lat high breaks up we will get a pretty decent cold spell from the north

[Model output discussion - mid January]

This is for NW England..... 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

The Control run has a little bit of potential 



Hmmmmm


Plenty of interest throughout the ensembles...... maybe its time to start taking a little bit more notice 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

North Westerly Leading to North Easterly leading to Easterly...... 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

 1991 Vs Todays GFS 12z Run

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

500 miles too far south - bring it further North and boom.

You can't please some people 

Text book easterly, and that Low early in the run helps a lot.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

And those that keep repeating myth "northern Arm of the Jet is too strong" (also look at Feb 1991) (Not the poster)

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

That's the Jet profile you want if you want an Easterly.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Shame it lasts about 2 secs the arctic outbreak,it’s all too flat again.boring run if your looking for cold ZZZZZZZ

Very boring and no Cold insight,

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It should be a better run than the 6z, it depends on that trough over Newfoundland (I think), we need that to remain slow moving thus pumping up WAA up the western side of Greenland, its not idealy tilted but I think it will just about get the job done.

The low (or shortwave as you call it shortwave) forces the high back west.... which mean as it falls across Europe there will be a more potent North Easterly.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

No Easterly on this run, Jet profile totally different.

Plenty of interest before day 7 in either case 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So your posting up a Chart for T132 that shows a 12 hour window for the north to see some wintry ness 

Not exactly compelling evidence—

Noones looking for an ‘easterly’ every time - just commenting on the evolution which indicated something could come from the East -

You can’t categorically say nothing from the east this year as you will look as stupid as the same people like IB who said the same thing in 2009/2010/2013 & so on- so the option needs to be on the table -

S

Thats right only 12 hours.... well not quite right but hey lets go with it. 

No interest in that chart at all the tgermal gradient over the UK another low sinking south east over the UK a day or so later..... you are  right if your only looking for an easterly there is no interest  

 

You are right there can always be an easterly its just boring when every run is comparrd to something that isn't there

[Model output discussion - mid January]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

3 successive runs from the GFS where the wave height@192 is insufficient to cover the ground needed to get the ridge to Scandi - being that it gets cut off over the North Sea-

not to much to be excited about ATM - although some time left for change.

Its interesting people are still hanging their hats on the modelling of the MJO when the GFS can’t even get it right at day 1-2...

s

Yep nothing interesting at all this side of the 192 hour charts Steve

Unless 

There will be no Easterly this year! save your self the trouble of looking for one all the time.