[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Ok let’s have an internet bet! 

I think they will change. 

In what time frame? 

Should he models not be picking up the effect of the warming already considering they are modeling the warming?

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Flurries started up here but a rather interesting battle of the Apps MetO Vs BBC (new data)

Met has me down for 3 hours of light snow max temp 0 
BBC has me down for 7 hours of light snow max temp of 1

A good test for BBC new data source, it got he temps spot on this weekend.

 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Bit of a runner between 144 and 168 that could be very wintry on the northern flank 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

11 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

joke

1cm

disgrace we need to be warned?!?!?

Yeah 1cm will make surfaces slippy

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

12 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

By 150 we have two GEFS ensembles that go this route... 

 

Can we competly ignore these at such a short lead time? 

 

I think we can, just your typical outliers you get with most Ensemble sets.

Then again the Mild sector on Thursday started with support of just one or two runs. 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Looks like an occasion when people to the West of the M6 may do better for snow for a change 

They can keep their temps of +5 and Sleet 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

22 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Been w while since i've seen a forecast like this for Preston ......fingers crossed

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2018-02-06

Looks pretty poor, you can add 1 degree to those temps and the snow will be gone by 9am. if it even settels at all.

Compare that to the BBC App https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2639912

BBC has had this weekends temperatures spot on. (new Data Provider is getting something right)

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

We need Ensemble member 8 from this morning to win through for Friday,

Tuesday looking like a blink and you'll miss it event with, Anywhere west of Manchester will have snow for maybe an hour or so further east probably a little longer but it's not sticking around unless you live high up.

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Tuesday with temps of 1 at 300m probably means snow will not settle for most. BBC app has had this weekends temp spot on

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

I see nothing of any real note this week cold but nit much snow

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Temp up at 4.3 now 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Radar has peppt up a bit on the bacj edge..... 

 

Temp has gone from 1 to 1.7 so its on the rise here which is odd

 

Still snowing

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

To be fair why should everyone conform to the cold lovers stereotype.. I'm quite neutral and don't see anyone should be castigated for suggesting there has been a downgrade relative to over inflated expectations. There has and as someone who likes all types of weather with no real preference the expectation of cold can sometimes be almost religious from the outside point of view.

 

*Prepares for the attacks*

Did you quote the right post with this reply?

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Snow here and a dusging also

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Some showers around manchester atm below freezing here thou

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, pip22 said:

The upgraded bbc app appears to be a downgrade of sorts after all with temperatures up to 6-5C on Sun and Mon. This morning it was 2-3 as max on Sun and Mon. Disappointed.

This time I'm gonna be quiet about this and pretend this upcoming cold spell not happening. However if the models changes for the better in the next few days then I'd be happy.

 

 

 

 

 

Bbc app..... has the app updated recently think the data is from a different source.

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Tomorrow is looking grim temp maxing out at 2 and light sleet /snow for most if the day 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

GFS op is not without support but its not in the majority either.

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

My post was as follows.

Snow or no snow we are entering the coldest part of winter,or am I missing something. 

Now I don' mind my post disappearing if that is deemed of topic,but the amount of crap and it is page after page that I read in there is embarrassing and goes untouched.

C.S

Well it isnt model related but yeah far more crap gets left up... just depends on the poster

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Just now, joggs said:

You said not one single post did you not?.

Think you've gone model thread blind.

Ive not seen it i saw Johns post but didnt see the original... must still be there and you've clearly seen it but i haven't. Then agai i have a few people on ignore

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

That's why I rarely post in there, I messaged one of the mods asking why my post was removed once, they said I was cherry picking, yet it was still a bloody chart I posted and not a fictional squirrel!

Why not repost it here 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Just now, joggs said:

John Holmes replied to someone mentioning feet of snow and is like to see you show me what shows that.

You need to take another look.

Sounds like you're wearing the blinkered glasses as the coldie mob are.

Ha ha one person mentioned something and its the eniter thread once again ha Ha

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

19 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Now remind me why I dont post in the MOD thread oh yes that is it,post deleted because I

Mentioned lack of snow and it been coldest part of winter.yet you can post about your Granny and that is ok.

What a pile of jaffa cakes that thread is.

C.S

Im gonna bet a small sum of snow that your post wanst removed because of the reason you said 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

11 minutes ago, joggs said:

People in model thread doing my nut in with the  constant ramps of disruptive and feet of snowfall.

Looks a fairly benign cold week with the cold slacking later.

A cm or two in places that see it with frosts the main story.

I've never bought into this easterly phase with big snow chances because it's never been shown.

Maybe the next cycle mid month onwards. Aarrrrrrgh.Sorry had to get that off my chest lol.

Ive not seen a single post mentioning feet of snow and a few cms of snow can be disruptive.

Im glad you made stuff up to argue against it thiu otherwise your post would have been silly 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All true nick - I am intrigued that some of the lesser models had found the v cold evolution this morning and yet have reverted away again. Given the trend of the gfs (yes I know it’s the gfs), I would be thinking the very wintry scenario which seemed more than feasible following the ec 00z op was on slightly dodgy ground. 

One run is a trend?