[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

GFS 12z pretty quick return to Atlantic. Not yreat mid section.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

hmmm, interesting 

We now have a rain event for the majority.

Mild sector.... is back.

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

That'll be rain then

Not seen anything other that Rain for coastal location for Saturday.

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

First chance to test the New BBC App Vs The Met Office APP for my location

BBC has sleet and rain (with temps at least 1 degree higher) Met has light snow and some sleet

What Model is the new BBC web site using? 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

20 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Really hope this front gets here on tuesday...it has a feb96 look about it ..my all time favourite snow event...over a foot here.

Front looks like it's gonna die a death. (IF Twitter)

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

So the Atlantic go in and quickly bring n it PM air with a runner. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

The Atlantic gets in on this run, but the block is still there, (Big change by this point)

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Greater Disruption

It's also worth noting the difference in the low coming out of Canada.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

A better angle of attack from the Atlantic, if that front can approach vertically aligned with the UK then that's a recipe for a big snow event. 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

By Tuesday evening the 6z gfs sets up a northwesterly with -10c uppers. If that happens, then I can die happy!

Anyway, the 6z is more amplified than the 0z which is a relief. The UKMO has me a bit concerned this morning but let's hope it will get more amplified this afternoon.

I spotted that it has a look of january 4th 2010 about it, not as cold thou!

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Incoming- going to be an epic 6z..here

Excluding the slight correction west it looks the same as the 0z.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

GFs back the Azores high a bit west compared to the 0z.

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Look at the charts posted...we're in a mean westerly flow by day 6...

Might be cold (most especially at night) courtesy of stagnant cold pooling from E then via NW but by day 6 we're struggling on the UKMO, GFS and GEM. In fact, the GEM turns out really quite zonal.

Day 7 GFS is ok though...50/50 as to what happens next

Key to remember, -8 uppers might look pretty on a chart but for low lying NW England -8 uppers of a PM origin don't always deliver snow (as many have found out this winter). -8 uppers from a polar continental source and we're laughing.

A mean westerly flow running into an entrenched cold pool, with additional cold following on behind.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

More Disruption Incoming 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

high pressure over Scandi now on the 12z vs low on the 06z.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

 12z Vs 0z 

night and day difference between the 0z and 12z ICON.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

More of a mild sector makes it across the UK by Thursday next week, i think we can thank the Azores high for that.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

6z Vs 00z Icon 

Thats a big shift (pretty much what Steve has said already)

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Good covering of snow maybe an inch will it last till the morning thou.

 

[North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards]

Covering off snow here

[Model output discussion - mid January]

4 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

So going by your mentality, if you don't understand someone's point of you, you compare them to your wife and accuse them off winding other people up? What's fundamentally wrong with someone injecting realism/different perspectives into the discussion? 

The people at The Daily Star would think Christmas has come early if half the people on here offered to write the weather section for them

I've read all your post and you need to explian to people what you find exceptional or intresting or standard February weather.... because without that no one knows what we shpuld ve co.paring the current charts too.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

54 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yes I did thank you. I can no longer edit my post.

However point till stands - nothing particularly noteworthy <240. 

Would be delighted to be proven wrong. 

What would class as noteworthy....?

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Main course...?

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

- It is pretty bog standard to February.

  -good debate mind

Not much debate to be had when one poster starts whining that he cant see what all the fuss is about. 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

What do you mean the rest of the run, its not half way through ( 12z) or are you talking about the 6z

It is on Wetter