Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

frosty ground

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,589

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by frosty ground

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by frosty ground

    14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    So it seems the low pressure that exits the Mid Atlantic Coast of America at around +96 is quite important. I wonder what they make of it state side? 

    image.thumb.png.39f3171187725df0d24ab9684965656d.png

    I thought it was the wave that develops on the western flank of the high and is driven around the high and forms a low that was the catalyst. (to drag the cold air westwards later on)

    • Thanks 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    But does finding something interesting have to be accompanied by copious amounts of OTT misleading drivel which very likely puts off many who find the meteorological aspects of the current scenario quite fascinating?

    No, but its a democracy and people don't have to conform to what we think is acceptable. 

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, knocker said:

    Irrelevant because I clearly stated the £4 billion cuts from the last government and the predictable impact on social care in the community, not the more recent Tory nonsense, and Corbyn wasn't even a twinkle then as at that time the Tories hadn't hatched a plan to ensure his ascendancy.

    Of course it's a weather forum and funnily enough I do realize that many like extremes but I am merely pointing out that during the usual way OTT melodrama that pours forth at the thought of the temp dipping below 0C the consequences should be borne in mind.

    If you think a long term solution to social care in this country is relevant to social care in this country then fair enougth.

    The elderly have been protected the most with above inflation pension increase and winter fuel payments, 

    the IFs states by 2019 the social care budget will have grown by 3.9% from its 2009/10 level.

    Some cuts have been initiated by councils that priorities in other areas. The same councils that got bigger  grant under Labour for purely political reasons had their grants reduced inline with the rest of the UK.

    I'm not going to think about the consequence of something i have no control over, like I don't think about Earthquakes Tsunamis etc etc, Which I also find interesting.

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    The eps further east with the mean ridge as they respond to the op direction of travel and delayed initial pulse of WAA and eventual neg tilted trough. Spreads are big and pretty indeterminate so I would be having a day off from too much analysis of the charts - the lunchtime Exeter 15 day outlook worth a read.  

    Only a few days ago the much talked about Extended EPS went off on one, maybe its time we sop taking these things at face value.

    • Like 2

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, knocker said:

    I couldn't give a toss what word you use and the rest of your answer is totally irrelevant to desperate state of social care in the community which has directly led to hospitals being in crisis with people dying in corridors and being treated in the car park, Not counting the thousands who have to remain in hospital due to no social care package being available. Mind I suppose the upside of that is they will be warm if does get intensely cold unless the heating is turned off to save money of course.

    Of course my answer is relevant...... you complain about Social care, I told you what could have solved it and you say its irrelevant. you couldn't undermine your own argument any more if you actually tried.

    As for cold weather or extreme weather in general, we do not control it wanting it or not wanting it makes no difference. This is a weather forum and a lot of the people here like extremes, doesn't mean they wanna see the elderly freeze. 

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    Well I did do 20 years in the North Atlantic on Ocean Weather Ships experiencing some very extreme weather so for half my working life I had to suspend my hatred of extreme. And I actually extremely dislike the liberal use of the words hate and hatred that permeates this site..

    When they cut the Social Care budget by £4 billion in the last parliament.

    Would you prefer me to use the word dislike? Not that it make any difference to me.

    I'll think you will find that our elderly have been the ones protected from Austerity, had The tories kept their original idea of making all people contribute to their social care and still allowing them to pass on 100k to their families we wouldn't have any short fall but you can thank the OTT press reaction and a politically astute Corbyn for that.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

    Once again signs of all the ramping falling apart and left with egg on there faces yet again. Why people post such charts way out in fantasy land in 10 days time and get excited over computer generated weather is beyond me. Everything ever posted is always 10 days away and by the time those charts reach T0 it's completely different anyway. You'd think how people ramp the 10 days charts are always right when in reality it never is.

    I'll have a little bet with you......

    I bet you can't find a single post that states a day 10 chart or above will verify. 

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, knocker said:

    That rather depends on your viewpoint, Apart from the fact that very cold weather makes me feel unwell I have three main reasons why any forthcoming intensely cold weather concerns me.

    1. It sends heating bills through the roof which disproportionately affects the elderly and sick

    2. A very negative affect on wildlife

    3. And it will speed up the cull of the vulnerable and elderly, like myself, initiated by the Tories and currently well under way.

     

    So you hate all kinds of extreme then?

    On point 2 it's not like nature can't cope with a bit of cold.....

    Doesn't mild damp weather help bugs spread making people even old people sick?

    So when did the Tories start culling their own voter base..... :rofl:

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Not the best of starts to the evening outputs .

    It looks like GFS op has picked out one of those horrible ensemble members and the UKMO is also flatter.

    Without the trigger shortwave cutting back sw it’s going to be a more drawn out affair which just gives more time for another variable to pop up.

    Very disappointing start and really after a more positive trend there’s no point trying to spin this as anything other than a crap start to the evening for coldies .

    We await the ECM but it’s recent record is hardly glowing , even if that remains similar to this mornings run we now have to wait for tomorrow.

    Regardless of what the runs show today we always have to wait till the next one.

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by frosty ground

    2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    npsh500.png npsh500.png

    While it's still making progress toward a similar outcome (trough breaking down, some of it likely headed for W. Asia with blocking to N of it), this run is a bit out of kilter with the other models terms of how much the Atlantic trough advances NE days 4-6, so is worth viewing with high(er than usual) suspicion.

     

    UN144-21.GIF?13-17

    Here's UKMO top-down at day 6. Looks alright when taking into account the fact that the focus of heights is ready to shift from SW to NE of the UK - but true to say, it could easily have been better with the shape of the Atlantic trough.

    Worth Noting the Low has slipped south on the UKM whilst on the GFS it went back north west.

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...