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Kentish Man

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Everything posted by Kentish Man

  1. Puzzled by sudden talk of showers and showery rain later tonight and tomorrow - where's that popped up from after all the talk of a glorious week at least up to Friday night?
  2. Climate UK has just released its March statistics CET: (Mar 1-31): 2.9°C (-3.7 degC) E&W Rain: (Mar 1-31): 72.8mm (102 per cent) E&W Sun: (Mar 1-31): 84.2hr ( 72 per cent) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures
  3. Even with the GFS 06z only the final two days of the month are very mild as the daytime mildness on the 29th is tempered by a predicted overnight frost on 28th/29th. ECM, GEM ,UKMO and NOGAPS all have cold or less mild scenarios at the moment. Nevertheless GFS may of course be right especially from what I have seen it has been the best model this winter. The most interesting batle for me is not whether we finish sub 3C but whether March manages to end up as the coldest "winter" month in a cold winter.
  4. Yes Where I live I was on the eastern fringe of the persistent streamer and got 8cms. Travel 3 miles eastward into Maidstone centre and far less. My son is 23 today and I have to say this is by far his most wintry birthday - in fact I suspect it is his ONLY wintry birthday. I recall on the day he was born on March 12 1990 we had 60F temps and sunshine
  5. Looking at the radar and outside lol the persistent snow streamer is finally petering out. Approx 8cm depth here. Hint of sun now and temps creeping up towards 2C.
  6. Temps risen from 0.1C to 2.1C in short order. Cold air getting mixed out? I never have much faith in breakdown frontal snow coming in from the west ahead of milder air down here. Usually a damp squib south of the Thames at least and possibly some way north of that this time.
  7. The pattern that seems to be gradually evolving is one that is essentially cold but with somewhat lower pressure than we see with some very cold anticyclonic winters. So maybe not the bonecrushing low temps of Jan 1963 but plenty of chances of seeing the wintry stuff and no need to worry too much about daytime temps edging slightly above 0C in the models. In areas that are lucky enough to receive any significant snowfall temps may not creep above freezing anyway. Re the GEM that shows slightly milder conditions in the medium term but cold returning in the far FI period so if that verified it wouldn't be too bad at all eventually.
  8. This might yet be quite a prescient post given hopes of a longer, more severe cold spell look like they've gone the way of the pear if you believe today's 06z GFS. While the dramatic turnaround, if it proves to be, doesn't surprise me (after all we've been here so many times before - the last disappointment being as recently as last month) we are at least going to have a short cold spell before the potential return of mild. As far as the CET is concerned the above 5's are still very much in the game - indeed it could end up being quite a mild month. Mind you if the ECM verifies instead...
  9. I don't comment in this thread much these days but after seeing a large number of failed easterlies and northerlies over my several years as a member of this site including the dead cert we supposedly had in early December I'd really take a more sanguine view of the GFS 12z. Given the exceptionally wet period over the last nine months we are overdue a persistent spell of anticyclonic weather. I feel reasonably confident it will turn colder as a result but maybe less so about any snow.
  10. Looking at Roger's figures the CET for 2001 - 12 which stands at 4.7C is in historical terms incredibly high and it is clear we are well overdue some cold ones to rebalance the figures. It is difficult to see this one as being likely to do this given the expected mild start but I am hopeful of a colder ending. 4.1C please
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