Kentish Man

Strikes me the weather today didn't quite live up to its billing in yesterday's forecasts. Damp cloudy and only average temps.

I won't be asking for a repeat of this August any time soon. Ok not the worst one in historical terms by any stretch but unkind for the year's first below average and a distinctly wet month to boot to coincide with many peoples all too precious holidays.

5.5C thanks

For a spot of optimism this winter is not entirely unlike 1975/76 in its relative mildness and dryness and even with a half-baked easterly in February. That was followed by the hot 1976 summer and a 10 year cycle of mainly cooler winters ending in 1986/87

Hello! At last Jan CET is now confirmed as 4.0C

Having just moaned about this winter on the whingeing thread I have to say January was actually quite cold in Kent. I can only assume the delay in announcing the CET for the month is due to trying to establish an accurate figure after such an unusually pronounced divide between a rather cold south east and a rather mild north and west.

Going by this morning's models it looks like we can finally write off winter now after this four day sadly neutered beast from the east coming up. The 2016/17 winter has largely been a let down for cold lovers after many early forecasts for a below average season and constant hints of wintry spells in the models only for them to be downgraded or disappear as they move into the reliable 120 hour timeframe.

A late 3.0C for me

Now the ECM has gone on full on mild mode perhaps cold fans should be more hopeful given the overrated model has spent most of this winter predicting cold spells that have not materialised.

Yup while the current 48 hour "cold" snap was a little more wintry down here than cynics like me expected the models after a short hiatus and genuflection to cold have reverted to the scenarios for the second half of January that they were expecting at the start of this week ie HP sitting too far south to provide any interest and a continuation of the dry rather uninteresting setup we've "enjoyed" so far this winter.

Despite the needless to say shorter and weaker by the day mini toppler due later this week if today's blow torch 06z GFS verifies my silly mild guess of 5.6C born out of frustration with this winter and the succession of letdowns regarding putative cold spells shown in the models may not be too far off the mark.

75/76 was a very dry mild and uneventful winter like this one and of course a long hot summer followed with drought orders and the rest

I appreciate there has been some snow in some parts of the country over the last few winters but to get meaningful snow cover down in my neck of the woods you usually need a cold continental flow or an artic maritime trough. Cold zonality doesn't cut the mustard here. There's nothing in the charts apart from a possible northerly toppler becoming less potent by the modelling day.

Bearing in mind this winter so far with its mild Dec and average looking Jan (very much like 1985/86) it would have to be Feb 1986. A CET of minus 1.1C makes it the coldest month since 1963 beating even Dec 2010. Huge snow drifts occurred in Kent accompanied by bright blue skies at times giving the place a rare alpine feel.

I see the properly cold FI scenarios on GFS have once again disappeared today. Despite the greater hopes and promise of this winter Is this going to be a season that flatters to deceive and consequently even more disappointing than the last few where at least we suspected both in our hearts and from the science that real cold and snow would never arrive.

5.6C

Indeed although as UKMO doesn't go out as far into the future as the others its not always as obvious! Thinking about Januarys 2009 was a bit snowy as you say as was 1996 I think but overall there's not be too much to really write home about for us soft southerners since 1987 and before that 1979

I kind of feel the GFS 06z is this winters potential fork in the road - I may personally wish to dismiss it but all too often rather than an outlier it is the GFS picking up something ahead of the rest. If the 06z verifies the best of winter will once again be lost. January has been a disappointing month for 20 years now

8.1C please

Looks like an unremarkable and rather warm first half of the month coming up based on latest GFS projections (after a slightly chilly first few days). GFS actually hinted at a cold easterly month for a number of runs at the start of this week before these notions were firmly banished over the lasr few days. Without any significant wintry spells being on the cards I'm going for 7.3C

This thread has gone a bit quiet - any chance of an update from one of the experts on this subject as we head towards March?

3.7C thanks

4.6C please

Late one 4.4C pl;ease

While in the south east this summer continues to hold meteorological interest on a practical level it has not been the most likeable. Last year a warm but not humid, dry and sunny July and August followed a long period of below average temperatures making it one of the most unexpected and pleasant summers in my memory. 2014 by contrast has been uncomfortably humid throughout June and July making working and sleeping difficult and barely more than one week into the main school holidays has morphed into a very wet, cloudy and cool affair just when the majority are able to take some time off. Give me 2013 over 2014 any time whatever the records for the three month summer will say at the end of August.