ribster

I might be wrong, but it looks to me in the later stages that the low slips under the growing block, then the whole lot is shifted west and starts to build north around Greenland.

No disrespect, but not an awful leap of faith there expecting it to be cold in December, and not expecting another 1 in 100 year event! With GP, Steve M and others, their assertions are backed up with some charts/data. It would help if your reasoning was backed up with some charts and data, as it would help me and I suspect many others understand how you have arrived at your conclusion.

Yep, excellent post thanks Steve, explaining why and how you think things will evolve. Should be clear to both seasoned and newer members to the forum.

I'm not sure that I follow, the weekend just gone was picked up way out by GFS (prior to the 228 chart that Steve M saved). ECM wouldn't have done as it simply doesn't go that far out. Can't argue with day 6, 7, 8 etc, ECM seems to be better, although from my limited understanding doesn't seem an awful lot. You appear to be advocating that we should only bother with 120/144, which would rather defeat the object of this thread for me. As has been said before, I can switch on the beeb for that kind of range. Obviously accuracy diminishes the further you go out, but the analysis and discussion of the possibilities in the medium to long term is what makes it so interesting/exciting.

Didn't need any elevation for that, had those where I was in Norfolk, roughly 6 miles in from the coast, practically at sea level.

I think it's quite the opposite, if said member wants to go and learn, there are plenty of resources for doing so, I wouldn't suggest the model thread is the best place to do it, although things can be picked up. I don't see that anyone has posted anything that hasn't been based on the output available, however far out it may have been. Nothing wrong with hypothesis, conjecture, speculation on what a setup/chart might deliver should it come to fruition. Steves posts are fantastic for example, you can feel the enthusiasm and excitement in his posts, at the same time it's quite clear what he is saying and always adds appropriate caveats. If we are just to discuss/read about the next 5 days and what has a cat in hells chance of actually occurring, you may as well change the name of the thread!

Well it's cats and dogs here! Has been for a while now.

Sorry, I thought Matt had his own website, posts on TWO, tweets etc, where his musings could be read, which if you have access to the internet (must do by being here), then you could access his musings, my bad!

Can I start quoting what Alex Deakin has been saying then (and not credit him with saying it), thought the idea was to post your own thoughts, not regurgitate what someone else has been saying.

Tonights GFS hasn't proved anything, if those temps subsequently occur, then that's a different story. Obviously temps of 20c and over can occur in September and beyond, although the likelihood is ever diminishing with time. The original comment was perhaps a little foolhardy, but no more so than yours.

Not at all, if one looks only for synoptics/weather of a certain type, then they are likely to find it. For a more objective analysis, posts by Gibby, Frosty and John have made fantastic reading lately, giving a much clearer, unbiased view.

Not sure about an agenda, I don't have a commercial interest and I'm looking forward to some warm days. It's others that seem to chase one weather type or another (or at least models showing it). In the meantime a warm up is on the cards, which is just as well because it isn't today. Although Sat/Sun look a bit cloudy here. We shall see what next weekend brings. I haven't seen any rules about positive posts only

Maybe only if it showed settled and warm eh? The last few days have been about as Autumnal as it gets, not just here, but down south where I've just returned from, wind, rain and some chilly nights. The models have been hinting at a warm up for next week, for some time now. But to accept that something at 168 -192 is gospel, but totally dismiss something at 240 is quite laughable.

Because by then, most people are back at work (summer holidays are over), and we have lost around 4 and quarter hours of daylight. Not an awful lot of 'usable' weather when you get home from work at that time of year. Summer ends 31st August, fact. We get the same rubbish every year saying we can get 'summer like' weather in September or October - I'd be surprised if there is a single person on the forum who isn't aware of that, just as you can get 'autumn like' weather in summer. What it smacks of to me, is desperation and disappointment at a rather poor summer.

I can't see where he's coming from at all, and when Peter Gibbs says unsettled for the next few days and beyond, says it all really...

Slighty imby I think, as there has been plenty enough rain here, all night long and again on and off during the day, as for watering the vegetables, haven't had to do that for the last couple of days. Of course there will be variation from place to place, especially regarding rainfall, but like it or not the general theme is unsettled.

Midsummers day is 21st June (24th, if you want to argue the point), which is different to the middle of summer. GFS does offer some hope towards the end of the run, which could be perfect timing for my trip to the Scottish mountains. Would definitely be preferable to lows crashing in from the west.

Yes indeed 'could', Summer could be a lot of things, it hasn't even started yet, a lot of claptrap in this forum today, records being broken, our athletes running in high 30s heat (yeah, that will be good, lol), summer being the best ever based on a hunch! It's as bad as it gets in winter with the ramping, thank god GP and John are here to give us some proper analysis and objectivity.

Most confused by the model output this evening, fancy, just 12 days from the start of Summer, they show some sunshine and warmth? Most unusual!

Gavin, you've been touting this for weeks and weeks, if I had a fiver for every time you've said it, I'd be booking a holiday to somewhere with some warm sunshine! Odds, are as we edge ever nearer summer, one might expect to see some warmer temps and sunshine, at this rate it will be the longest day! As it happens, it's rained here in some form or other for the last 45 days...

Welcome back WoW, and as some would, I won't slate you for daring to have a weather preference and not wishing to post during seasons in which you are not particularly interested in following the models.

Do you mean looks as in is likely, or that's what a model suggests, as I think there is a very important distinction between the two. As it is, I can only see a slight hint of that on the GFS towards the end of the run. In fact ECM has another low winding itself up towards the end of it's run. In the meantime, lots more wet weather to come this week.

Indeed, not quite the 3 day blip is it, don't think the models have read your script!

Really? I think it's a long way off to be calling that, only into the second month of spring. Personally I think the setup is ripe for rain of biblical proportions for the summer, but as I said, too far out to call either way.

Winter? We are a third of the way through spring mate! One thing is for sure though, with temps about 10c lower than they have been, it's going to feel a lot colder!