Snooz

Yay! here's hoping that there is to be a sting in this winters tale delivers to all! re: tonite.. it's them Highlands LOL.. the band's (although it's fairly pepped up behind too) is either racing towards them, too quick over the west, or it can't get over them, not reaching the east - LOL! TBH I wasn't really expecting it to reach this far anyway but we'll see, it wouldn't take much to add a fresh coat. We still have a good covering with no melt today despite the temps, last nights final dusting (after clearing the drive earlier) is still intact - it's been freezing here this afternoon, fell sharply from +3c at around 2pm to -3c when I was out taking the kids to footie at 5pm and gritters were out in force - it's now around -0.5c DP -2 so regardless it's.. :blush: With the warmer temps progged for after this band it will be interesting again to see what happens to it and how quickly!

A bit of a hit or miss for us/you SL? - Ian Fergusson on the MO thread has said that the WBFL is lower than first anticipated and the PPN signal is stronger. Apparently the NAE chart was already tweaked overnight (00z) to reflect this and was proved correct as snow appeared further south than expected this morning. I'm assuming this didn't become public knowledge until 4-5 hours before the actual event anyway here's the latest NAE precip chart for midnight (unfortunately the next frame loses it's pink so it's hard to guess the expected easterly extent between midnight and 6am) He (also said to "watch this space" for more possible tweaks after the 12Z so it does look like another nowcast or check back on the NAE charts around 5pm :o ---------- That "PL" activity did not extend this far inland last evening did Aberdeen see anything from it?

Monds.. sorry you're so high up the rungs of the naughty step there's spaces below you now hehe.. (and yes I think the Balaclava would suit!) and re that pic the system that is now breaking down just east of NE was earlier on marked as a PL.. it was as early as last night that LadyP noticed it marked as such on the chart - I actually think it looks like it's going to bypass the east coast for te most part, and even the showers coming across the Firth are breaking down a lot, but hey what do I know, it only takes a couple to give a further covering !

but honestly as per last reply I think it's just ours just now, yours tomorrow, in fact Edin/Glasgow got some earlier today didn't they? honest I've tried getting the hairdrier out to blow it your way a bit, but it just melts mine so..

Evening! have been out and see I've not missed much on the model front Yes LS, the naughty step for you - (BUT Ha Ha!) agreed no METO warning is a good sign, they very rarely gave us one when we were getting all tat tasty snow earlier, and even then it was just a "be aware" Anyway another white day here, quite a few tasty thick showers this afternoon (giant flakes) followed by some light snow & graupel satuff.. depth isnow around 4 inches in the garden again! and I see the radar is offering up a few maore chances of a hit here and there.. I think this is because we'll not see tomorrows frontal stuff this far NE. SS, I do think your biggest problems tomorrow if any will be around Edinburgh and central - you can see the sate of te A90 at Ellon on traffic.org (when it'#s working itsoften unavailable) - and it's quite clear for now the run through Aberdeen and up to St Fergus - however tonights heaviest showers could be reserved for the more eastern areas - which if thy get a direct hit could affect the Peterhead/Fraserburgh road. Hard to say really obviously until tomorrow. Might be an idea to keep an idea on the Scools closure list as an early guide to what thetransport think in that area.. in fact most of the school already on that list are already around the Ellon/Peterhead area though tey would be a bit off the main roads.. what time you planning leaving, I could phone one of our employees who lives up that way and check it out first thing for you if you want?

Morning All, crisply cold & Sunny here, very very slight dusting after the rain last night so while some of the depth of the last fews days has gone there's an icing sugar coating once again. (phew my forecasting to friends status is intact!) Nice the see it's getting further south, and leaving snow, this morning . Seems like that's just might be a taster before more tomorrow for you:yahoo: - coming from the front out west meeting the cold air that this one (and previous N->S incursions have) brought? We, up here, don't usually get very much from tomorrows kind of set up (W->E), it gets stuck on the hills, but as you say by-tor, given half a chance this winter, and who knows, and there's still a couple interesting formations up north which might still skiff the Moray/NE coast? - Looking good for Glasgow, Edin, Fife (bout time LS got some, he deserves it!!) well what can I say about this morning's "atmosphere" in the MO thread - nothing much - except to post the ensembles perhaps, these same ensembles despite the flip flops have shown at least moderate agreement up until about 7/8th.. until today! now out of sync from as early as Thursday - the ECM ones are apparently even more at odds?.. So who knows - its certainly a struggle for them! off to work, you see this working at home, there's way too many distractions at times

LOL.. I can't do it - so much for T96 and realism when I'm hitting T168+ charts all over the place, [don't mind in here for a muse] but but but the who's right/wrong model/person is a bit wearing... & we've not even hit the pub run yet, so I think I'll just check back tomorrow off to draw instead it's infinitely more calming

Agreed and thanks for your views too, they didn't go unnoticed .. I wasn't meaning to overrrule your note when I posted that one, and I agree it will likely be different further down south - just trying to gain an overall picture so I can TRY to sift the truth in the MO thread in the days to come :pardon:and I've just finshed work so am trying to catch up with all the days events [rant]that's what really tires me about the MOD thread, reading the repetition - if I have to read the flipping Met Office outlook one more time in there I think I'll scream! is there not a weather forecast discussion thread or am I supposed to think the outlook is a model now?[/rant over]

many thanks, I better hope the northerly is a little slow in reaching us then [tonite] as the period covered when my friend doesn't want snow is up until 9am tomorrow! it will be exciting watching the next round of the beasterly's march.. although I just noticed Ian Fergusson has tried to inject a note of caution which appears to answer the bigger scale question, following on from the earlier stuff I posted here from him: but my bold this time fun fun fun!!

OK just kidding you lot.. it was those FI charts that made me think twice haha! serious question is all that precip over Scotland Rain/Sleet, not normally in the habit of making predictions outisde of family or a 6-12 hour timeframe, but a friend asked me earlier if it would snow tonight and I said no! and then promptly scared myself as I looked at the radar. 'nother question, "IF" those easterly charts came off would that mean it would be a lot drier here or would snow be just as much in the offing as at any other time, and/or would it simplay make it more marginal dependant on micro-climate type things (like location, location, location!) haven't been in the MO thread yet.. should I or not? SS you're teasing again! naughty step for you soon

I just came on to check the progress and thought I'd check the Scottish Thread first.. but I think I've got the wrong one!

Yes sure! (providing I actually manage to construct the thing!).. seriously if you do get stuck do shout out on here, got a spare room even if the igloo is uninhabitable

from what I've read overall I don't think anyone of note has completely backed of the "E'ly" maybe it's just that the evolution of such a pettern is new to everyone? Long and short range forecasters alike - even the Met Office haven't discounted yet have they? [this is per Ian Fergusson's updates about his team briefings] - anyway I'd better go, thanks to all and LS I'm not surprised you're dissillusioned with the models, but if it's any consolation I can't read them anyway.. and I'm pretty sure you're seeing (reading) a wee bit of history Stick with it you're doing a grand job!

tsk tsk! no fluke, just depends which particular singular record you want to look at .. cold spell or cold snap and even if Englands temps were a degree lower in a particular time frame I do believe an Easterly treats Scotland a little differently, maing it drier but not necessarily colder? - In [very] general (though I know it can be as marginal as anywhere) Northerly's bring us further north colder temps which I think you would agree that most further down south usually write off as being no good for cold? at least not sustained cold instead of calling it "fluke" can't you just share the enjoyment as part of the fickleness of weather in the UK?

with all due respect we know that :drunk:I think all this does say is that it's been an exceptional winter all over the UK in one way or another? even if not quite in YBY, the stories will abound for a few years - This is NOT a "normal" winter anywhere in the UK! I believe from reading that your CET is also quite low compared to normal - and while our wee achievement might seem like nothing in comparison, I think the point is here that it is the longevity as opposed to any singular particular record. There's no one time that appears worse than a particular month, temp or storm, but much like the CET average, which is an average - we've been chatting about this since [16th or 17th] December - it's never really gone away for some parts, I personally have had continuous snowcover since then, not 100% admittedly but still that's different for MBY and will make mine and my sons memories - each place has their own occasion of note.. and those records we read about, I'm pretty sure they weren't UK wide? It's been a ball [if somewhat cold], it's been a pleasure to be part of the excitment in general and even if it suddenly goes mild tomorrow and stays that way (which I doubt) - it is one to remember - enjoy what you have when you have it! Mondy I'm not sure whre it actually states this but I believe it is th 50 day average that is being touted! 50 days!!

hi howham.. you're right it wisnae snamannie stuff last time! Where's the pics?? Tomorrow I have the urge to try an igloo again but I'd better wait 'til DS gets home from school or the neighbouyrs will talk..

LOL, very true but you know us weather types apparently it's never enough hehe and TBH because everyone else has been caught up in their own wee world and perhaps thinks that it's "usual" for Scotland to "always" get snow - it's probably gone largely unnoticed - but, hey we've had a ball on our Scottish thread.. thanks to the the Admins, Mods, Pete and Ross B et al for allowing us that space

Oh I'm bad.. and my patience didn't hold out! Brilliant summary LS! I have been busy most of the afternoon working and clearing snow yeah those Huntly cam pics show it like it is! I thought I'd pop in on the MO thread as it seemed OK earlier on.. BIG Mistake! and I should have known better anyway Those showers just keep on coming and are much beefier than earlier, though it does seem like lots more people are getting a shottie now which is good, so am now off to read what I should have done in the first place -- LS's earlier analysis (out of date or not it's good to see how each evolution points to different things!)

Thank you for a voice of reason. I had just managed to get close to the end of thread and was about to give up on it yet again! (a plea, please could some of you put your [oft repeated] opinions or IMBY posts in the regional threads??) chionomaniac, your post means I click out with at least some idea of whats actually going on regards MO.. thanks!

because not everything is certain? and even if it is the eventual outcome it's not likely to happen at the flick of a switch a couple of posts from Ian Ferguson (BBC Forecaster) on the Model thread give a little insight as to why the UK Outlook is as it is.. I do again stress this was a midnight briefing and will shortly be superceded!!!

oops ^ anomaly = analogy and LOL at the Miaow!!

SS, I like your Footie anomaly it does seem very much like that with some just enjoying the game and others living by it! re the 00z I was just thinking that now the E'ly madness is all but over it should [hopefully] be less argumentative in there for a while, not saying that I don't believe we won't see some hints at some SE/E'ly breezes, but I certainly don't think the "Beast" the southerners were after is on the cards. I don't think any of the models/charts can be classed as "nailed" even yet. (messy charts abound) - GP's and others views (although admittedly most of the actual tech talk goes way over my head) in the tech thread is very interesting (along with our own LS of course!) when taking into account what has just happed re: the GFS "amazing" flip I'm kind of a pragmatist too, and enjoy the nowcasting much better, I do not see the need to back slap, or state the bl**ding obvious - it's kind of like picking a horse isn't it.. there's form that can be taken into account, butthn there's also the state of the ground (teleconnections?) - but when alls said and done it still doesn't mean the expected one will always win! anyway regards your trip up here on Wednesday, from what I can gather it *should* be OK by then (i.e. these coastal showers look to have died down), Tuesday was always going be a very decisive day (IMHO!) and it looks to me like that's when we should see what that little low (is that what's known as a shortwave LS?) of the coast of Norway brings .. as at the current NAE charts it seems it might affect inland areas more but it's just coming into range on the 6z a bit more

Morning.. Nicely done on the MO thread LS! Well it looks like it will be quieter in there today after the 00Z.. anyway lots of wee showers overnight but they have beefed up this morning to give another solid covering though haven't looked out a the depth yet.. here's the 8am Huntly Cam pic as that's a lot eadier than going out in the cold this early Currently 0C DP -1 (Wind chill -3) and snowing looks like it will continue this way for a day or 2 on the N/East coast anyway, and hoping it meanders around for all too

Tine Out on the Naughty Step for you! Thanks LS for the patient explanation - I'll never be a forecaster nor attempt it but it does help to know that when I look at the charts (which are pretty blinking exciting right now) that I might be able to attempt an explanation of what I see and don't worry about the 'exaggeration', it's pretty tame compared to some other exaggerations, at least this one finally helped me see a bigger thing.. o many thanks again

OK I think I see, can you spare a mo to teach me a bit about this lark? so I *think* that T72 (as per the latest 12z's) is the crucial period as to whether the Greenland High starts building or not? the so called Northern blocking .. is it dependant on that high building and/or meeting with the high over Scandinavia? ie like this: please do tell and don't be worried about telling me I'm really silly! thanks