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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    The JMA goes this at day 8 to this at day 11! FI I know but a plausible evolution in my opinion.
  2. mulzy
    Had nothing to do for 15 minutes (I have no life and wife is busy!) so I came up with an 850 temps (for London) time series showing the EPS mean.
  3. mulzy
    And in English what does this mean? Or do we have to second guess?
  4. mulzy
    ECM very progressive - no cold uppers in the UK by day 7 - could be temporary though. Need the low to move east south east rather than south.
  5. mulzy
    Sadly, some people have no clue what the meaning of an outlier is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier
  6. mulzy
    Too far east in my opinion. 144 should see us in the warm sector with a south-westerly flow.
  7. mulzy
    We need a significant westward correction in the 120-144 range otherwise we could be forever chasing!
  8. mulzy
    Decent 0z ECMWF run but I think it's gone shortwave crazy in FI. Let's see how things pan out this evening...
  9. mulzy
    3.8C please
  10. mulzy
    Lightning here!
  11. mulzy
    The APERGE remains fairly blocked at 114 hrs - it's rather on it's own at the moment.
  12. mulzy
    Not quite an ice day here. Peaked at 0.8C at 14:42 but on the way down again - currently 0.4C
  13. mulzy
    Snow grains here - hardly visible but falling from the sky -0.6C
  14. mulzy
    Even at day 9 on the ECM, the Atlantic is not winning. Looks blocked to me.
  15. mulzy
    From where we were this time yesterday, I think most of us will take the ECM solution and chance our arm. And, there is still time for further upgrades - a bit cheeky I know!
  16. mulzy
    A lot of cloud has drifted into our region so temperatures widely above freezing at the moment. It's 2.7C here
  17. mulzy
    Way out in deep FI but first signs of height rises to the NE are being shown in the GEFS mean. Something to watch going forward...
  18. mulzy
    Indeed BA - the ensemble mean is not as sharp as the operational as one would expect - probably some of the ensemble suite following the UKMO solution. The control is very similar to the operational and delivers an easterly/south-easterly at days 10/11 with -10 uppers!
  19. mulzy
    The extended eps is again broadly similar to the last few runs though higher heights over Europe is pushing the jet a little bit further to the north meaning that the 850's are anomalously warm right through to day 15. From what the NWP is showing, it's a long way to cold. However, we all know things can change quickly but for the sake of your sanity reign in expectations for the rest of this month and early February.
  20. mulzy
    12-15 day period. All deep FI.
  21. mulzy
    The ext eps broadly similar to this morning's run, but maybe the jet axis a little bit further south. The control run has a few shallow low pressure systems running on a southerly trajectory that may produce marginal snow events over parts of the UK.
  22. mulzy
    No change in the extended eps in the day 12-15 period. Looks pretty zonal to me with mild south-westerlies (classic positive NAO signature).
  23. mulzy
    Indeed. The eps have been very good this winter season. We need to be cautious but I am very concerned about a potential return return to zonality in the 11-15 day period.
  24. mulzy
    Close but no cigar - need the higher heights to be much closer to Greenland to allow a meaningful retrogression.
  25. mulzy
    Temperatures rising here now as the sleet relents. Partial covering melting. 0.9C (up from 0.6C 30 minutes ago)
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