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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    In the near term, moderate differences still exist in the depth of the uppers that cover the country at day 3. Does GFS have a cold bias when it comes to uppers in a northerly outbreak? GFS ECMWF
  2. mulzy
    Time will tell as ever - 2/3C probably right for most of the country but for London 4/5C is probably spot on.
  3. mulzy
    ECM is the gold standard, GFS is cannon fodder.
  4. mulzy
    True that!
  5. mulzy
    The GFS is a cannon fodder model in my book. The verification stats proves it.
  6. mulzy
    Yep - the low is heading sliding down about 500 miles too far east. It's cold rain I am afraid. ...But it's a day 7 chart so this is not mailed down yet. UKMO the pick for me tonight (from a coldies perspective).
  7. mulzy
    Thank God it's the NAVGEM - rain for the majority on that run.
  8. mulzy
    UKMO day 6 better than this morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0
  9. mulzy
    The eps control run very similar to the operational, viz. slider. Best ECM of the season and best eps of the season too!
  10. mulzy
    A good-ish ECM in FI and to be a honest a backtrack from the last night's appalling run. Day 10 chart looks good to me despite the PV in the Eastern Canada locale.
  11. mulzy
    ICON 18z run following the ECM. I can bet that the others will fall into line tomorrow.
  12. mulzy
    3.7C and 90 mm please.
  13. mulzy
    ECM at 168 - trough is disrupting favourably - could be a decent end to the run!
  14. mulzy
    Looking at those two charts alone leaving aside the GFS evolution, you would say that UKMO is better.
  15. mulzy
    UKMO 144 chart not bad at all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
  16. mulzy
    It's crazy - it almost ends up with hurricane force winds!
  17. mulzy
    Why 192 hrs? Take everything after 120 hrs as JFF. Having said that we have all been burnt within the 120 hrs mark!
  18. mulzy
    12z GEFS rolling out and they are a significant upgrade to the 6z set. The retrogression signal is still strong.
  19. mulzy
    Extended eps not as good as last night. Picking up a west based NAO signal. Start of a trend or a blip?
  20. mulzy
    Yes, very much so, though at that range there is some dilution. Better extended set than this morning but someone needs to check the clusters.
  21. mulzy
    Retrogression signal still shows up in the eps.
  22. mulzy
    Medium term pain for longer term gain perhaps? Would be interesting to see if the eps has the retrogression signal similar to the operational.
  23. mulzy
    The APERGE does NOT follow the UKMO route. UKMO looking very isolated this evening - does not mean it is wrong though! Needless to say, critical ECM this evening..
  24. mulzy
    144 chart looks good to me. Stiff north-easterly - not desperately cold but this is a decent chart. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
  25. mulzy
    FWIW, the ICON looks good at day 7. Well within the envelope of ensemble spreads at this range.
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