mulzy

We haven’t got started yet - the NAVGEM and CFSv2 will be posted soon.

Is there any where we can see the output from MOGREPS? Last I heard the Met Office is a public institution that you and I finance!

Very uncertain what would happen from there. Can’t see the Atlantic breaking through quickly though...

GEM is pure NWP porn!! We need the ECM to stick to its guns!

Wouldn’t it be great if we see signs of retrogression at day 10 - but that’s just me being greedy!!

Good for the SE but really want an upgrade to make it countrywide. No-one should miss out (except the greedy Midlanders ofc!!!)

Let’s hope that this ECM is another mild outlier!

ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

At 210 hours (like all other models) very low.

Not a great run (6z GFS) in the medium term but an upgrade up to 132hrs. The saggy bottom high that delivers warms uppers is something to watch going forward.

By 156 hrs, the eps mean shows the whole country in at least -3 uppers with an easterly flow. Control is similar but the uppers are at least -6 across the whole country.

Day 10 ECM probably gives a high of 0C in London - possibly colder.

Better ECM 144 but just concerned that low is not clearing south east faster. Big risk of pulling warm uppers back up - at least for the south.

I like the ECM - much better than the GFS at day 7

This morning’s run.

This issue is the slow movement and filling of the low over the UK at day 6. Synoptically looks good but because that low didn't move quickly, cloud, drizzle and mildish uppers injected into the mix.

6C and drizzle - yuck!

4.0C and 108mm. Mildish start - a very cold week in second half of the month.

The 7-10 day period is definitely beginning to show more interest. Day 10 GFS - a little of higher heights to our north (akin to Jan 2013 perhaps?) Day 10 GEM - a shallow northerly flow - very much slider territory going forward. Day 10 ECM - slider - probably wrong side of marginal for most. Day 10 ECM eps mean - much better than the op - shows a wedge of heights to our north / north-east. Fairly sure we will have a significant cluster showing a Scandi high at this juncture. Health warning - these are day 10 charts but the trend is our friend here!

Living in Scotland at 200m asl cannot be compared with living in lowland S.E England viz. snow chances in a polar maritime flow. Marginality just doesn't cut it where I live - give me -15 uppers with a moisture laden easterly please!

GFS FI quite interesting... Just for fun for now!

Got a very noobish question about the MJO - if we move into phase 3 for example, is there any lag before the analogue pattern for that MJO phase becomes applicable or is any response immediate?

Light snow in RP - no chance of settling (for now!) 2.0C

Rain here in RP. 2.5C

Merry xmas all and one. Let's drink to a very snowy new year!