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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    I 100% disagree with your post. Seasonal forecasting will improve as we get a better understanding of teleconnections - it is still an embryonic area of meteorology. For the foreseeable, it will remain probabilistic rather than saying X will happen, Y will not happen but that is still useful insight - it' still better than nothing or a toin coss. Yes, better computer processing power will ensure marginal gains in the short to medium term NWP. However longer term forecasting will be very dependent on teleconnections - the few friends I have in meteorology are excited (and sometimes frustrated) by this area of meteorology. Exciting times ahead!
  2. mulzy
    Last time, we had better imbedded cold. This time it will most likely be rain for most I am afraid. Chances of snow in London from this system ~10%.
  3. mulzy
    To be honest, they seem to a little troughy again (cf this morning) through the UK in the day 13-15 period. The clusters will reveal more but I would not call the ext eps “as bad as it gets”.
  4. mulzy
    I prefer the Euro high dross to an active jet bringing wet and stormy conditions. Long live the Euro high. If we can’t get snow and ice, let’s have mild and benign weather. Despite the usual hope casting that happens on here, there is nothing wintry in the cards over the next 15 days, bar some transient snow on northern uplands next week. The MO update for the middle of January gives me a little hope but apart from that it’s pretty bleak.
  5. mulzy
    I think you will find that the polar front jet actually gets adjusted further north most of the time. The models (especially the GFS) have a bias to overplay the extent of any southerly trajectory.
  6. mulzy
    As it stands, I would take the GEFS with a pinch of salt - the EPS nowhere near as cold. A shift from well above normal temperatures to normal, maybe just below normal (for the south) with the continuing possibility of snow over high ground in the north seems the best call at the moment. http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london
  7. mulzy
    The shift to move the jet SW to NE often happens after a period of very unsettled weather - seen it so many times over the years. Maybe this is what the MO were alluding to in their long ranger? Anyway, time will tell as ever!
  8. mulzy
    Northern hilly areas will see some snow - I would not call that "large parts of the UK". Those ECM snow depth charts are very misleading. Treat with huge truckload of salt.
  9. mulzy
    Just the operational. The ensembles show a spike up too before returning to more normal values.
  10. mulzy
    Background signals from teleconnects are flaky at best. Sorry to say this but am also not a fan of analogues especially when the climate is changing so fast. Stick to the NWP within 10 days and you will not be disappointed (even then you will be led up the garden path at times). Rest is just conjecture...
  11. mulzy
    We have to be realistic and as been flagged for a while, unsettled weather (wet and windy and often mild) is now clearly signposted. The 6-10 day 500Mb anomaly charts from both the GEFS and EPS illustrate this perfectly. AS @Steve Murr has indicated, the strat forecasts are indeed dire. Luckily, we are still early in winter but we can confidently write off the next 10-15 days. As ever, way too much hope casting happening in here. All in all, a very poor outlook if snow/cold/wintry weather is what you are after.
  12. mulzy
    Last time we had a potent northerly/north-westerly that contributed to some home grown cold. Nothing doing this time...
  13. mulzy
    Nick, you've not mentioned the SS Save Christmas recently. Can I assume it's sunk without trace with the loss of all souls on board?
  14. mulzy
    To be frank, most people come onto this forum in Winter to look for snow/wintry possibilities. Rain and gales, though interesting weather, doesn't really float most people's boats especially as this is the default here in the UK.
  15. mulzy
    Looks like a period of very unsettled weather after Christmas is locked in now. Very strong support in both the GEFS and EPS for this to happen. Nothing wintry on the horizon (at least for lowland parts). Chin up folks - there are still ~70 days of winter left...
  16. mulzy
    Ban me for posting an ICON chart if you must but this is close to a very good chart.
  17. mulzy
    I don't want to be pedantic but if the Azores High is displaced to the N or NE or NW, it shouldn't be called the Azores High, it should be called something else. The Azores High is one part that contributes to a positive NAO. Therefore in my book, it is not a good sign for cold weather in the UK.
  18. mulzy
    The Azores High is the winter killer - always has been, always will be.
  19. mulzy
    Is there anywhere we can view the skill scores of the ECMWF and Glosea medium/long range models? I am guessing that as with all medium/long forecasts, it's pretty poor - better than coin toss but not much better. Happy to be corrected.
  20. mulzy
    It's something I have been guilty of over the years too but anyone quoting the NAVGEM, BOM, CMA , NCMRWF or CPTEC should face the ban hammer!
  21. mulzy
    No point sugar coating it, the NWP is pretty poor from a coldie's perspective. We are fast reaching the point where we are reliant on some warming in the stratosphere as Crew Cold mentioned last night. We have seen so many times over the years, once the PV takes hold around the Greenland locale, it's tough to shift. I am also very wary of any modelling that shifts the polar front jet to the south. We often see modelling that shows the jet digging to the south of us at mid range but invariable this gets shifted north (I believe this is a known model bias). The positives remain the MO long range forecast and it's something I will be watching over the next few days to see if there is a subtle change of wording.
  22. mulzy
    When should we start getting worried about wind and rainfall impacts? The NWP is very concerning - hope the various contingency planners have got all bases covered over the holiday period.
  23. mulzy
    GFS loses the plot as it tries to blow up that low in the Atlantic at days 9-10. This run is for the bin after mid range...
  24. mulzy
    I want the old Frosty back posting snow charts from the GFS in deep FI!!
  25. mulzy
    No change on the ext eps. It's looking fairly bleak at the moment for coldies.
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