mulzy
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Everything posted by mulzy
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It's just one set but the extended eps are horrific tonight. Low heights close to Iceland, high heights over continental Europe (Euro High). Let's hope it is a blip.
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UKMO and GEM are following your script for starters! Pretty flat...
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From the GEFS 6z set for the period Feb 1 to Feb 4, there are 5 decent members (P1, P2, P8, P9 and P19) and 4 reasonable members (P7, P13, P14 and P18). This shows there is hope for early February folks.
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That's an anomaly chart so the High Pressure will most likely be centered across southern England and northern France. Anyway this is a mean chart but I am sure there will be quite a few true UK Highs in the mix.
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That is not a bad chat actually...
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It's a possibility for sure - think we need to focus on the first two weeks of Feb for this.
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I think we need to point out that March 2013 was truly exceptional (just like December 2010). To say another March 2013 is round the corner is highly unlikely. Five years ago today (my last lying snow event), we had this - remember this folks?
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Just one set but the extended eps not looking that great - no real coherent signal but we have lost the significant heights to the north-east.
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Looks like the winter killer (AZH) is in full prominence as we head into next week. I think we just have to grin and bear it. Like I have said before, first two weeks of Feb could be positive as the Strat and MJO come to our aid. Time will tell as ever...
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Slight retrogression of the big Siberian High at day 9 on the ECMWF - probably lead to nothing but it is a player going forward for sure. More suns needed!
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And the point of posting one member of a ensemble set at day 16 is?
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Pressure rising to the east days 8 and 9 on the ECM is interesting.
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For Referencing the NAVGEM, you should be expecting the ban hammer to strike!
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GEM further south too!
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Some kind of Euro heights has been well advertised in the extended range for a while now.
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The verification stats clearly show that the ECMWF, though far from perfect, is clearly the superior model. This is nothing new - well known for a number of years.
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Yes, I was ridiculed by saying the Azores High is the winter killer. Let’s face it, it is and always has been. There is evidence that AGW has led to a slight northward shift as well as intensification of the AZH.
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Some kind of Euro heights is probably the form horse in the extended period (similar to what is shown in the 6z GFS) - so unlikely to stay unsettled for long. No sign of deep cold though...
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Yep, the NWP all trending the wrong way. To be honest the Westerly “blast” was never going to deliver much here. Temps of 8C with a breeze - yippee!! Just disappointed with the medium term outlook now - the dreaded AZH showing its hand.
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Indeed - just 30 miles further south and we're in the game. With just about everyone else getting snow this winter, we deserve some luck!!
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London will be chilly in the wind but snowless (as ever) - you may return to something white though!!
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AZH could start spoiling the fun after day 10 but that's way out in FI...
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Yet another M4 north event. Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!
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Hmmm, GFS looks very progressive after day 6. Worrying trend...
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As @Man With Beard has suggested most of the eps have the runner much shallower and further south. This is the evolution I would favour for now...
