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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    A poor ECM it must be said - by day 7 a swathe of southern England in positive uppers.
  2. mulzy
    Easily - a SE flow off a coldish continent.
  3. mulzy
    Maybe a couple of French coldies have compromised some of the data - it's a perfect run for most of France!
  4. mulzy
    It doesn't quite happen on this run as most of the precipitation stays in France, but this is a theme going forward in the day 8-10 range.
  5. mulzy
    Until tomorrow morning...
  6. mulzy
    Meanwhile, from our Canadian friends, two charts for your perusal! Edit: the GEM is an absolute stonker!
  7. mulzy
    If there's one model that you want to show picture perfect synoptics, it is the UKMO and boy does it deliver! What a chart!!
  8. mulzy
    GEFS having very little to do with a southward correction. Like the GFS Det it's pushing things slightly north.
  9. mulzy
    With the exception of the GFS, all other models have shifted south - some slightly, some more so. ARPERGE (shown below) probably the most southward. I believe its the shortwave to the north of Iceland that is putting the southward pressure on the block - but I could be wrong?. We await the ECM with baited breath as this was was the first model to call out the southward shift.
  10. mulzy
    ICON similar to this morning's ECM - hope that's not an omen for things to come!
  11. mulzy
    Looking at the mean BA, I would expect the cluster to be significant but probably less than 43%. Hoped to be proved wrong!
  12. mulzy
    ICON 6z looks good - similar to the 0z run - if anything the high is further north and more robust.
  13. mulzy
    Absolutely crazy that an ensemble mean can be as low as -14 way out at day 6.
  14. mulzy
    Definite shift to the south in the eps but not as marked as the Det shift. Extended eps similar to this morning - strong retrogression signal with cold UK 850s.
  15. mulzy
    Of course it can still go wrong, but the chance of brutal cold hitting in the 6-9 day period is now better than evens. We have all been burnt many times before and have the scars to show for it so I am still nervy. So, please no popping of champagne corks yet!
  16. mulzy
    Let me clarify as a member of the Netweather family liaison committee, no member is to tell any family member until 48 hours (2 days) before the brutal cold hits. If in any doubt please contact the committee for further guidance.
  17. mulzy
    Extended EPS - similar theme of the high heights retrogressing to Greenland (and beyond). 850s over the UK remaining cold.
  18. mulzy
    EPS strong support for the Det. Mean charts are going to be good!
  19. mulzy
    ECM 0z run - BANK!!!! ECM 240 chart - What.A.Chart - the best we have seen in this insane period of model watching!
  20. mulzy
    I mentioned this earlier - it could just be a one suite blip. If this evening’s ECM suite is similar then that is a concern for coldies. We really need the cold to start appearing within the 6 day timeline. Day 10 eye candy charts are great to look at but we all know they are unlikely to verify as is.
  21. mulzy
    A little bit of balance please. Just looking at the ECM Det and it's ensembles, things have downgraded as the below shows: 12z yesterday 0z today However, on a positive note, the UKMO is now good at day 6. So swings and roundabouts as ever.
  22. mulzy
    ECM a downgrade on yesterday evening’s run - we have lost the cold uppers at day 6. Still should be ok from day 6.
  23. mulzy
    Another cracking run from the ECM. If you think days 5-9 are decent, goodness knows what you will think of days 10 and beyond. Brutal cold locked in!!
  24. mulzy
    For those who said things will get resolved tonight, think again. Still big differences at day 5. UKMO is a big worry...
  25. mulzy
    UKMO better than this morning at day 5. Not bad, not amazing...
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