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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    Clear skies here in RP. Temps 2.9C.
  2. mulzy
    Max temperatures on Tues and Wed *should* be 3-4C across our region
  3. mulzy
    5.4C and breezy with fair weather cloud in RP.
  4. mulzy
    Spot on Jason. This is the day 15 GEM ensemble mean 500Mb anomaly. Very promising...
  5. mulzy
    GFS FI is rather interesting - we *could* be heading in that overall direction. Support from both ensemble suites.
  6. mulzy
    The only day of interest I see is Tuesday with that decaying front - that's out best hope. Temperatures progged at 3-5C is an issue - we often get lower than that in a misty/foggy inversion! Mid-month onwards could be much better - let's see...
  7. mulzy
    Oh dear!! ECM is very poor at day 5. A significant mild sector encroaches the UK with heavy rain expected on Thursday. It’s quite possible that the det is on the mild side of the envelope but the cold/cool snap will probably be over by Friday. On the face of it, snow chances look limited. Eastern coastal districts may do well as well as more western and central areas from that decaying front on Tuesday - but as ever surprise snowfalls are likely to happen. To be honest, expecting little if any snow here in London. Hey-ho, the search continues - interest now mid month for me - blocking could become prominent by then.
  8. mulzy
    Wouldn’t lose any sleep over that chart. As ever, the GFS is too fast and progressive.
  9. mulzy
    UKMO day 6 looks good to me - more potent trough disruption incoming...
  10. mulzy
    London ECM temperature ensemble time series below. Cold and trending colder!
  11. mulzy
    Front on Tuesday dies a death as it traverses the country - not much for the south eastern quarter of the country on this run. ...But cold is well and truly bedded in.
  12. mulzy
    Same theme from the models this morning - wintry with some snow at times. This could be the real deal folks - strap in and enjoy. Still think the models are struggling day 7+ - lots will change in the medium range but we have one snow event within 72 hours (Saturday) now!
  13. mulzy
    Can i revise please? 3.4C and 62mm please. NWP generally suggest a cold start to February.
  14. mulzy
    Indeed Steve - a slice of -10 uppers across central England.
  15. mulzy
    A -8 uppers mean chart should never be sniffed at, particularly out at day 6/7. You may still be right and things may go the way of the pear with regards a cold and wintry spell. However, with the data/models that are available to us mere amateurs, I would say the *probability* of an upcoming cold spell is significantly greater than 50%. Time will tell as ever! Anyway the 6z GEFS were a big upgrade on the 0z set. I quite like P5!
  16. mulzy
    I think the Control run will trump the operational for cold! -12/-13 850s over good part of England (days 5-7)!!
  17. mulzy
    UKMO has led the way here. Most of the models now aligning well with an easterly now consistently shown with trough disruption (ECM exemplifies this) very much on the menu. For those who said the easterly is dead, long live the easterly!!
  18. mulzy
    4.0C and 62mm please.
  19. mulzy
    The ICON is a “Euro”.
  20. mulzy
    On your first point, patience, grasshopper patience! Watch as more and more of the gefs flip to an easterly solution...
  21. mulzy
    On a train with dodgy wi-if. Can one of you kind people check the ECM eps on weather.us and tell us how many are similar to UKMO day 6? Many thanks.
  22. mulzy
    Indeed - ECM is closing in the UKMO solution. GFS on another planet at the moment. Still a lot of water to flow under the bridge but in UKMO we trust!!
  23. mulzy
    Too early to be writing off the Easterly. It's still knife-edge territory.
  24. mulzy
    FWIW, ECM is similar to UKMO at day 4.
  25. mulzy
    P19 is truly a marvelous run!
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