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Everything posted by mulzy
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's hope it's the English Channel- 1,198 replies
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Yes, a case of ‘for the few, not the many’. Thursday/Friday remains the best bet for the region as a whole. -3.3C and clear.
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Great to hear these fantastic reports from Kent and Sussex. London crew - don’t give up hope - those decaying showers from East Anglia may deliver us something a little later.
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think expectations were sky high and when we saw some amazing charts in mid range and FI, some of us including me all got carried away. Add to that, talk of a Feb 09 or even a Feb 91 redux was mentioned and as ever we got ahead of ourselves. We still have a few days of this cold snap that is guaranteed to give *some* folk snow.- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM doesn't quite make it on this run - by day 6, mild uppers encroach a lot of England. Guess there wasn't enough trough disruption along the front between days 4 and 5? If only the pattern was 200 miles further south!- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM looks decent to me viz. Friday's event.- 1,198 replies
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Hopefully is can expand a little bit north and west to include as many members as possible! I am just on the westernmost edge of the warning area! 0.4C and cloudy.
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I think it's a good call - the angle of the precipitation looks a little too acute (compare with MO amber warning).
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Snow flurries all morning. Temporary light dustings come and go. It's not melting, it's vanishing. 0.0C
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12 noon on Friday on the ECM - a (warm/occluded?) front lies from north central Wales to Kent producing snow. Edit: That low at day 6 close to the South-East produces some wintry precipitation in the SE too as it passes by.- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The orange line trending up now- long may it continue!- 1,198 replies
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
mulzy replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Temp: 3.5C DP: -5.7C Sunny -
Model output discussion - the beast arrives
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Delete- 1,198 replies
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
mulzy replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
To be honest, it did start showing up in the NWP modelling yesterday and that trend has continued today. Let's enjoy the next few days - sadly I think snowfall will be localised and many in this region will be disappointed come the end of the week. The big hope was always Friday but even that is receding now. -
Sadly, a significant downgrade, at least for those of us in the south.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
mulzy replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Glorious start to the day here. 2.1C. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting FI output on the ECM. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Think that is last night’s fax - so different timestamps. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
mulzy replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
The wrong type of snow! -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Significant differences in the GEFS as early as day 4. I need to revise my previous pessimistic post. This is not a done deal yet. Matching any ensemble member to the UK fax for day 5 leads to a positive outcome for coldies. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
mulzy replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
$64,000 question! I would say Tuesday and first part of Wednesday is our best bet here in RP - we are quite a bit west so are dependent on the streamers aligning perfectly. I am hopeful of up to 2 inches! Late Thursday into Friday is the big hope. Was looking pretty good until this evening's model runs. Let's hope it's only a blip but am not overly optimistic (that might change tomorrow!). -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
mulzy replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Evening all - looking forward to the next week. Some of us will get some significant snowfall - good luck to you all! 2.7C -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
mulzy replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just shows our bad luck when it comes to the continuation of the cold spell. I think the models have in my opinion rightly flipped to a less cold scenario. I really hope I am wrong but that cold pool while our friend early in the week becomes our enemy at the end of the week. Anyway, off the regional thread I go - some good stuff incoming...