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mulzy

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Everything posted by mulzy

  1. mulzy
    GEFS - huge scatter at only day 5 - nothing is resolved even at such a short timeframe.
  2. mulzy
    GFS a dire run. Tantalising UKMO day 6. I wonder what day 7 will show? - so many options on the table!! Hopefully the Scnadi High can 'close out' with the SW/front approaching from the west sharpening up. The winter killer (AZH) is a pain though...
  3. mulzy
    UKMO miles better than GFS at day 6.
  4. mulzy
    What's the doom and gloom about? I could be in with a shout to get my 10th air frost of the winter tonight!! Exciting times....
  5. mulzy
    Extended eps seems broadly similar to previous BUT there seems to be further intensification of the low heights over Greenland and Iceland. We need this trend to reverse. Overall, the NWP signals seem very mixed and a tad underwhelming.
  6. mulzy
    Decent support from the eps for the det solution at day 8: GEFS much flatter...
  7. mulzy
    Indeed. As I said in my earlier post, we have taken a step back this morning with some rather ordinary NWP output. Let's see how output pans out from here but definitely no impending freeze on the horizon at the moment.
  8. mulzy
    No point sugar coating things, the overnight runs are poor viz. cold. The ECM is a horror show. Those low heights to the NW are the spoiler.
  9. mulzy
    UKMO is rather interesting at day 6. GFS much flatter.
  10. mulzy
    Extended eps continues to show troughing over Europe (actually slightly more widespread than this morning's run) - GEFS currently does not show this signal. Will it be a case of the GEFS catching up again I wonder? The worry from a coldie's perspective is the lowish heights over Greenland.
  11. mulzy
    Yes, sadly the GEFS now aligning well to the EPS. ...But it is still all FI stuff - plenty can change and probably will!
  12. mulzy
    Day 15 GEFS 500Mb Mean Heights Anomaly chart is decent. Let's see if the EPS agrees with it...
  13. mulzy
    Indeed - should have put in the "just for fun" caveat.
  14. mulzy
    FWIW, the 12z GFS is a UK High borefest from day 8 to 16. It nearly gets there in deep FI though...
  15. mulzy
    Sad state of affairs I know but I have a very good feeling about February. Let's review in one month...
  16. mulzy
    Just for fun but the ECM produces a snow event days 9 and 10 for eastern parts of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland.
  17. mulzy
    Temps are sadly rising - Temperatures will be well above zero by the time dusk hits and then continue to rise through the first part of the night.
  18. mulzy
    Yes, that is why I hope the ECM is nearer to the mark than the GFS.
  19. mulzy
    I think the milder air is beginning to creep in. Temp has gone up from 2.0C to 2.5C in the last 30 minutes.
  20. mulzy
    I wonder folk what folk from Scandinavia would think of us getting excited with some sleet and 1mm of lying slush? Meanwhile here in RP a period of very wet snow. Temp 2.2C.
  21. mulzy
    Elevation makes all the difference! CP is pretty high for London.
  22. mulzy
    Yep - sleet now mixing in! Does it now count as a "snow day"?
  23. mulzy
    Rain here! 2.1C
  24. mulzy
    GFS seems to be overplaying the High over the UK in the medium range - other models are much flatter. The problem for us coldies is the lack of upstream amplification.
  25. mulzy
    Ensemble watch (GEFS) - in the 0z set, there were 8 decent perturbations, in the 6z set, there were only 4 decent perturbations. (For the period Feb 1 - Feb 4)
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