mulzy
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Everything posted by mulzy
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UKMO - close, very close to being good! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref
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I have never unsterstood that? Why can’t we compare each and every run? Seems truly bizarre.
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That's the GFS for you - LOL! 6z run is quite a big upgrade synoptically.
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Yep NWS - quite a mixture by day 8 including quite a few ECMesque solutions. No need to feel bad this morning - we are still very much in the game. Crucial ECM run coming up though...
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Morning folks - the 0z GEFS are better though so the trending is not all one way...
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Day 10 ace - snow moving in from the west. PS the pros at the MO really know their stuff!
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Indeed Steve - obviously lala land but Feb 09 redux would be nice!
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Damn that winter killer, let's hope we get some trough disruption...
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It's remarkable how the GEM and ECM have hand-held over the last 4-5 outputs. Never put them as bedfellows! Incredible stuff!!
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ECM day 4 looks good to me. Closer to UKMO rather than the GFS (though not as good as last night's day 5 ECM).
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25% of the GEFS are really good. Knife-edge continues....
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Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade. UKMO, GEM, ICON all worse than their previous runs. GFS about the same to day 6.
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UKMO not as good as this morning's run - not terrible though but not a trend we want to see. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0
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Small changes here and there but to me the GFS is sticking to its guns. It hasn't significantly moved to the Euros...
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Even though at the surface, the GFS solution is different, at a broadscale level (500Mb) it is not significantly out of kilter. It is well within the envelope of possible solutions. Dismissing it out of hand is not advisable.
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ECM - broadscale very similar to previous runs. No point fussing over the minor shifts in the orientation of the high or uppers at this stage. The block isn’t going anywhere.
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Already significant changes at 48 hrs on the GFS 18z!!!
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Evidence?
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Though this run is ace, “that ECM” still has a mythical quality that will be hard to beat...
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Can I mention the R word going forward from day 7 on the ECM or will I face the ban hammer if I do?
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Indeed Nick - guess the evolution is still red on your scale? ?
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Broadscale ECM still on board! Phew! It is still very knifeedge though...
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In so many ways that’s a downgrade. 1) the shortwave near Iceland flattening the high more. 2) the low over Europe not clearing as much to the south east.
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Just a mere 16 days away. GFS is keen on some cool zonality in FI.
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Compare and contrast with NOAA.
