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Paul_1978

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Posts posted by Paul_1978

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

    I know this is fantasy (by the way, I know this is related, but relatively new here…what does F1 mean?)

     

    It’s FI not F1, which means Fantasy Island, another way of saying ‘beyond the reliable timeframe’ and therefore unlikely to be accurate. 

    A lot of people still erroneously put “F1” on here!

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    To be specific with my musing the real issue is a scenario like this. All the potential gone/delayed greatly. Not about the blocking itself but the outcome ať the surface. Wasted synooptics and potential.

    gens-0-1-252 (1).png

    Maybe so for you in Slovakia, but a couple of frames on for the rest of us in the UK I don't think many people would complain too much as the low moves east and puts us in a north-easterly.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    You lot do make me laugh... "LOL" " WOZERS" "BOOOOM", come on all level head! We still don't know how this weekend is going to pan out with that high pressure, further north the better!

    Indeed - with a Greenland high like that, anything can happen, as is showing in the latter stages of the 12z GFS.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BIGDOG2 said:

    How long before the met office start committing on these models 

    The MO forecasts will be as usual - balanced and impartial - i.e. simply forecasting the weather without being sensationalist.

    1 hour ago, MJB said:

    Control 

    image.thumb.png.2c82e35c9a9398ccd461e295267fd712.png

    There was a good post on here a few days ago about good reasons to ignore the control (can't just put my finger on it), I think due to its resolution - it's a futile exercise.

    • Like 7

    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Monday 1 Jan - Wednesday 10 Jan

    Into the new year it now looks finally balance whether near or slightly above temperatures will be in place across the south, with periods of rain, wind, and showers. Or if the slightly below average temperatures in place across the north; where showers will remain wintry, will manage to filter southwards or not. If the colder air filters southwards wintry showers could be seen across parts of England and Wales, and it is possible some more significant snowfall could occur along the mild / cold air boundary. Thereafter, more settled conditions are expected to gradually develop more widely, increasing the risk of frost and fog. If this were to occur day on day net cooling would lead to below average temperatures, with an increased threat of winter hazards, including ice/snow.

    Thursday 11 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

    Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

     

    Who on earth wrote today's summary? Terrible use of the English language! 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

    The Nick Finnis SSW piece is certainly eyebrow raising.....

     

    Which is here if anyone is wondering: 

    gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

    favicon.ico Increasing possibility of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the New Year which may bring colder weather

    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
    Blog looking at the increasing probability from weather models for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in early January, which could bring colder and wintry...

     

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Thanks for this realism. We’re chasing phantoms at the moment.

    It’s essentially mobile, Atlantic-driven, with a powerful jetstream. Some occasional cold zonal incursions mainly for the north.

    I don't think anyone is expecting anything otherwise to be honest, at least in the next 2 weeks. There is perhaps a pattern change expected into January, and the impression I get from posts I see here is that most people are accepting of that. So for now it's a case of watching out for the pattern change starting to appear in the far reaches of FI, and nothing more at the moment. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul_1978
    Duplication

    5 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Regardless of Christmas from a coldies perspective they are meh for winter .

    Outside of winter months the outputs don’t tend to get as much discussion. So unreliability tends to get missed .

    You didn’t mention the words “upstream” or “shortwave” - are you OK Nick 😆

    • Like 7
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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Not the best of starts to the day for coldies .

    Although some differences remain between the models . The ECM probably the best upto day 6 in that some tweaks could see colder conditions hang on for more of the UK . Day 10 scrapes some interest .

    The GFS tries to develop a more northerly flow later but low pressure remains parked over the UK slowly filling . Heights building into southern Greenland are poorly orientated . The pattern needs a large se correction .

    The UKMO nothing to write home about !

    Earlier two chances for snow . 

    The low moving in from the sw . Detail wise still some disagreements , more likely Wales n England , north Midlands towards the ne .

    A chance also that as the low clears east there could be some rain to snow for some other areas .

    Later Wednesday still some uncertainty as to how the next low moves in . This would in any case be likely to be a snow to rain event for the risk areas .

     

    To be fair Nick, after tomorrow I think I pretty much everyone has accepted return to less cold conditions and a wet week ahead. I think we’re all looking to mid month now for signs of a change back to cold, and at that timescale the models will vary wildly. So for me, it’s a case of enjoy the next 48 hours, accept the rainy week, and keep a watching brief on developments towards the middle of December. 

    • Like 14

    Anyone on here actually prefer mild winters over cold winters?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I like a bit of everything to be honest!

    I like the thrill of the chase when it comes to snow, and cold and frosty mornings. 

    However I have hobbies that involve being outdoors and as such I don't mind mild spells during the winter. 

    Also, as our bedroom is in a loft conversion I do like listening to the rain on the roof during the night. 

    I think the only weather I dislike is damp, dark and grey - thoroughly miserable.

    In response to @Weather Enthusiast91's post, I do sometimes find that as I get older that I like the cold less, particularly as I get Raynauds, and don't like spending money on heating (tight Yorkshireman).

    In conclusion though, my greatest weather memories are the big snow events, and I'd like to see another Feb '91 before too long.

    • Like 3
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