Paul_1978
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Posts posted by Paul_1978
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55 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Where did that come from
if that’s not a complete outlier I’d be surprised - and happy of course 
️
I nearly didn’t even bother looking at the charts this afternoon. My initial thought…. For God’s sake GFS….. DON’T DO THIS TO US!!
Is the next chase on already?!
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2 hours ago, TillyS said:
This isn’t really right Kasim. It was the coldest start to meteorological winter since 2010, not my words but the official Met Office analysis of the month. I remember snow flurries in London.
"The first two weeks of December were the coldest start to meteorological winter since 2010, with high pressure and a cool northerly airflow resulting in a prolonged spell of low temperatures with snow and icy conditions at times, albeit with interludes of clear skies.
A weather station at Braemar, Aberdeenshire, recorded the lowest daily maximum temperature of the year, with -9.3°C the highest it reached on 12 December. In the early hours of the following morning, the same station recorded the lowest minimum temperature of the year with –17.3°C.
Mike Kendon is a climate information scientist working for the National Climate Information Centre in the Met Office. He said: “December’s weather will principally be remembered for the notably cold start to the month, with prolonged low temperatures, hard frosts and snow and ice at times, even to areas further south in the UK.
“This cool weather was principally brought on by an Arctic Maritime airmass, with daytime temperatures struggling to rise above freezing for many in what was one of the most significant spells of low winter temperatures since the exceptional December of 2010.”
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/12/30/cold-december-concludes-warmest-year-on-record-for-uk/
Two reasons for posting historic weather in a model output discussion. First, for good or ill, it shows we’ve been here before. It’s not exceptional but it is going to be cold.
Second, it doesn’t mean we’re heading for either a repeat of last year or a 1962-3. It’s too early to say.
What the models are not now showing, at the moment, is sustained northerly blocking. The 12z ECM is an interesting scenario:
@ScottSnow that's a high sliding from west to south-west of the uk in the T216 to T240 charts, which is not really what we want to be seeing for sustained cold. It would be brilliant for the Alps mind you. NB @ICETAB maybe ‘toppler’ isn’t the correct word, but transitional high moving southwards would be an accurate assessment of the latter stages of tonight’s ECM on those two charts? Not that it’s necessarily right about that, mind you. It’s one possible route. As someone else just mentioned, there’s a wide scatter in the ensembles so all to play for https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ensembles
You’re not really new here are you?!
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3 minutes ago, Nick123 said:
I take by the lack of posts ECM isn't what we want to see.
No, most people just wait for the run to complete.
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4 hours ago, Anthony Burden said:
Morning all,interesting week coming up fax charts show how complicated and messy it is,regarding the white stuff well I’m sure some parts of the UK will undoubtedly get some and cold will be the theme for all so nothing to complain about.The longer term prospects as I mentioned before in my blog is very dependent on blocking to our north/northwest that might decrease a little but possibly only for a very short time,the proof is in the pudding of course.
Where can we find your blog?
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6 hours ago, AdrianHull said:
Words and terms to be banned on here today "850s" "Cold Rain" "Wet Snow" and "Phasing"
Add “Sceuro” and “Griceland”.
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New blog issued Friday lunchtime. Lots of talk of hill snow and seemingly not much at lower levels: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/cold-spells-to-come
See also this accompanying graphic:
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2 hours ago, WINTRY WALES said:
Where can one find the latest METO update?
Usually on the Met Office website! They update the medium term outlook every day.
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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
The EPS clusters highlighting a possible issue.
If blocking ends up trending too far north we end up in a situation where lows are pushing across the UK rather than going south, this prevents deeper cold from advecting west and milder air gets in.
Potential for a lot of snow along the northern flanks along the cold boundary, but where that resides is likely a way off.
From historic experience, I don’t like the trends this morning. Messy worries me.
Enjoy your input, and whilst we don't necessarily all agree with one another, we have a common interest with most of us looking for a bit of the white stuff.
I wondered what "Met4Cast" is - are you a company or organisation, or are you posting in a personal capacity?
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1 minute ago, Robbie Garrett said:
Does @Glacier Point still frequent these forums? His views on the models were awesome
According to his profile he hasn't logged on Netweather for over 3 years since October 2020 so I guess not.
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11 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:
Erm, let's hope the Canadian warming doesn't happen lol
Great chart, but is it 3-4 weeks too early?
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4 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:
After a west start here in Wakefield, we have a dry and sunny spell, albeit a bit breezy. I've managed to get my washing out on the line! But will have to bring it in before 12:00/12:30 I think as it looks wet this afternoon.
Can’t edit my post. I of course meant wet start!
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After a west start here in Wakefield, we have a dry and sunny spell, albeit a bit breezy. I've managed to get my washing out on the line! But will have to bring it in before 12:00/12:30 I think as it looks wet this afternoon.
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1 minute ago, Wold Topper said:
A couple of peeps on here pointed out the potential for this storm late last week, but only a passing mention, (model potential) seems to have intensified late in the day, so to speak!
Quite unusual for it to form literally just off the SW coast of Ireland I think.
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10 minutes ago, wimblettben said:
Pretty last minute this as far as i'm concerned.
Quite a few people are going to get caught out by this as even i didn't know there was a storm coming till literely the last hour or so.
No more then a day or two ago the models were just showing standard wind and rain. A bit of a poor show it has to be said.
Indeed, the first I heard of it was when the warning came up on my phone this morning, but admittedly I haven’t been keeping my eye on the models for a few days.
Looks like the GFS is looking for another storm on Weds into Thurs, but the ECM doesn’t want to know at the minute.
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5 hours ago, matty40s said:
The worldwide weather watchers are on to this as well..
“Bomb cyclone”….. I really don’t like it when people and even some meterorologists use terms like that.
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40 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Major doubts over where the low develops though from Southwest Ireland to Northern England. Impossible to know who will get stormy weather. The only certainty is plenty rain
It looks like most of the UK will be affected, and for at least 48 hours. GFS has a further deep low into the following weekend. Looks like a nasty low (or two!), and some rough weather ahead.
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13 hours ago, RainAllNight said:
Is this what you guys refer to as a "wedge"?
Looks more like an Omega block to me. When people say “wedge” I imagine something a lot thinner than that.
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Love the style of journalism - much different (and preferable) to today's style of writing.
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10 hours ago, RJBingham said:
Looks OK
OK for what?
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Just had a big flash of lightning and thundercrack here in Wakefield
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On 19/09/2023 at 15:07, Summer Sun said:
The Australian Bureau of meteorology have declared an El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole
A positive IOD for the UK can lead to increased westerly winds and wetter than average
Yes, but an El Nino can lead to colder than average weather in the UK, so we have conflicting drivers here.
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15 hours ago, SollyOlly said:
Definitely, it might actually feel and look appropriately seasonal! I'm going to be in Leeds for work for the early part of next week, and am very much looking forward to a) more sensible temperatures, and b) a few of the local ales!
I work in Leeds City Centre and there’s some great real ale pubs, particularly Whitelocks and The Angel Inn.
As regards the weather, last night was the most uncomfortable night’s sleep I’ve had in a long time. Looking forward to the less warm weather, although I have to say the ECM and GFS look poles apart this morning.
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- Popular Post
1 hour ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:Media are reporting a heatwave on the way for the UK. The coming high pressure looks like being very strong by Saturday afternoon and Sunday
Tip for you - ignore what the "media" are reporting, and stick to trusted sources who actually specialise in the weather, and do not specialise in headline grabbing.
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Perhaps a renewed bout of amplification in the latter stages of the ECM - a bit of a northerly at the end. Something to hang our hats on as we enter winter. (Remembering as of today it is actually still autumn).