[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 hour ago, DanStormUK said:

I think i'd rather safely bet on 15C over Christmas period than Snow.  Safer bet.

New year looks mild/SW wind rain too.

What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Pretty much dry in Wakefield too, just a heavy cloud cover.
Current temp -0.2°C, only very slowly climbing. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

13 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What a complete turnaround to mild conditions next week throughout!

Nothing wintry showing in the GFS 6z run!

Well I must be looking at a different run as there is some great wintry potential for Scotland, certainly for 23rd December onwards.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

-1°C and raining here in Wakefield!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Looking at this morning’s output, does anyone think we’ll be looking at the next named storm next week?

 There’s certainly some potent looking low pressure systems around. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 hour ago, Gazse9 said:

This so called mild interlude seems to be getting delayed more and more. What's the chances of it not happening at all??

Slim to none. 

[Model tweets]

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

27 minutes ago, Shunter said:

Could be record breaking cold according to Cohens recent update.   

AO Blog Update | Verisk's Atmospheric and Environmental Research (aer.com)

I think we all know what will happen when that air reaches the Eastern Seaboard and out into the Atlantic ?!

Yep, strengthens the jet stream

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 hour ago, love snow in winter! said:

Will probably get the answer in a little while on the latest gsf run, bit is there any particular reason we all seem to get depressed about a bad ecm run... is it that reliable .

 

The ECM is the model that appears to be most respected amongst professionals and amateurs alike so you’ve got to take its output seriously. 
 

Also I’ve posted this on here recently, but I was surprised to see a pro forecaster on Twitter recently (Ian Fergusson) appearing to rate the “best” models in his view as UKMO, ECM, GEM, ICON and JMA, with the GFS apparently rated last. 

Consequently since then I’ve been taking a lot of GFS output with a pinch of salt, and paying more attention to the likes of GEM and ICON than I did previously. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

56 minutes ago, DanStormUK said:

Interesting 06z the mild weather lasts 1 day monday than woosh the cold is back.

Arrives Saturday, gone by Monday evening and back into a northerly!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, barring some unimaginably immense shift from either the models or the pros, by next Monday just about the whole of the UK will be under milder air, as southwesterly winds take over... What could possibly go right!

    

 

Which model are those from? Cropped images don't show

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144

After what we’ve had to endure from the models the last few days, this is superb!  Think this trough might be east of us by the T168?

Snowy do we think?

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Currently -1.0 on my garden weather station in Wakefield at 1.20pm - coldest day for a long time!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T168 v UKMO:

It is very interesting that, like UKMO, this run doesn’t blow up the low, despite not having the ridge into Greenland, in this run it is much further west.

Indeed - there's more mileage in this story yet. Edge of the seat stuff!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

45 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

I'm afraid the flaw in your argument lies right at the outset. There aren't really "six main outputs".

There is a clear hierarchy of reliability with 3 main model outputs: GFS, ECM, and UKMO. All 3 of the main outputs suggest milder outcomes at around the 6-7 day point.

It's not a done deal but once we start scrabbling around for minor model outputs to back up our preconceived wishes then we're not really being objective or empirical.

Based on those 3 and the ensembles it's somewhere between 70:30 or 80:20 that it's heading milder. 

Not necessarily. Ian F replied to a couple of Tweets recently and suggested that his preferred models were UKMO, ECM, GEM, ICON, and JMA, with GFS in last place! 

[Model tweets]

So there we have it, Ian F’s focus is on UKMO, ECM, and GEM. ICON rated to   GFS appears to be less favoured!

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

53 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

UKMO 144 

Looks like grazing the south coast again . Going to be interesting next 2 frames later .

One thing I can never work out is how do you know where the front will lie - is there and easy/foolproof way to tell from a chart like this?

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Currently 1.3C on my garden weather station here in Wakefield after after an overnight low of -0.7C (recorded at 07:47).

As for the mid to long term picture, I'd very much like a decent snowfall! Cold weather is all very well but would like it to be a bit more interesting than dry and frosty

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

31 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Arpege increases activity associated with the possible front tomorrow night. A possible arm of more persistent snow dropping into N England during this time.

Is that not 10:00am (thus Friday morning, not "tomorrow night")

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Another flop from ECM?, looks way too progressive at 144 hours, more runs needed. 

Why don’t you wait? Lots of frames to come yet. 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Low pressure systems sliding into cold air and under the block is very much reminiscent of some of the classic snowy periods of the 70s and 80s. If anywhere in the UK manages to avoid decent snowfall in the next couple of weeks they would be very unlucky. 

Is this spell going to go down in history as one of the classics? Let's see... things bode well for now, but there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we get to next week. One thing is for sure, the model runs keep on giving - this is amongst the best period of model watching I've seen and I've been here since 2005.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

 

I know it won’t end up like this, but 2cm on the M62 corridor between Goole and Leeds (basically my neck of the woods)

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Another magnificent GFS with lows sliding below the block into the cold air. Somewhere is going to get a decent frontal snowfall you would think.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

47 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Don't let the 6z dampen the mood. We're in a great position for cold and frosty weather for the upcoming week. Anything past t120 is fantasy atm. 

Hoping for some great 12z runs now 

I can't see why it would dampen the mood - another brilliant run right out to 240 hours! 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

1 minute ago, Snow Queen one said:

Why?

I would imagine wages. 
I have to say the Met Office are poor payers, certainly in the IT Department. I spent some time look at jobs and the salaries and just not attractive compared to other similar jobs elsewhere.