Theresnoway

Well, all I can say to that.... Is that I along with most NW forum members, are very envious.

The best guide to what happens after such a phenomenon, may be to look back to what the weather did in January 1938. You can see from the below link that after the anticyclone on the 5th, travelled up the west coast of Irleland, a wet and windy month followed. May be the models that are showing a quicker return the Atlantic domination are onto something? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/j/Jan1938.pdf Edit: Add link!

Please can someone link to the model timetables, I cannot seem to find them. TIA

You could not be more right.... This cold spell will end only one way, it will get warmer! I am no expert either. Could you explain why the "USA getting cold again" means the jet will fire up? Thanks

Good evening all, As someone who has been on this site for 9 years, I would like to share some of the wisdom I have learned. I do hope this will improve your enjoyment of this forum, because at times it can be the most frustrating place in the world, at other times, there is not a better place to learn about weather. But you need to be able to identify what is good and what is not! I hope the below aids you in that process. 1. Just because someone has made lots of posts, that does not mean they know lots. Passed experience has taught me, some of them talk complete rubbish. 2. Learn who the valued contributors are and do not waist too much time reading other posts, you will make much better use of you time. 3. Even if you are a cold weather fan, also follow the thread occasionally in the summer, it will help you understand better who the real unbiased posters are. 4. Accept the fact the majority of posters, no matter how good at reading the models, have a preference for cold weather 5. Understand that if somebody is not a cold,weather fan, they probably demonstrate a warm bias 6. There are few posters who give a truly balanced view, but to name a few.... Nick Sussex, Nick F, Tamarra, and Gibby. 7. Just because someone is confident in what they are saying does not make then right 8. Anything past 5 days when talking about specifics is pure speculation, look how much the Met Office forecast can change, even for day 5 9. Learn who to trust and concentrate on those posts 10. Do not take it too seriously 11. Post charts to help articulate your point 12. If you do not know, do not pretend, say and learn 13. Ever year has buzz words, each one a new, do not get too caught up in these 14. Not everybody sees the world the same way you do! Have empathy! 15. Not every run is correct, the trend is your friend 16. Do not pay too much attention to snow risk or precipitation charts! 17. Whatever people say, the Met Office do know what they are talking about (better then most) 18. Twitter is a great place to follow some knowledgeable people, @MattHugo81 springs to mind 19. Generally people like to look at the period where the models are uncertain, that is half the fun 20. It is only weather, there are more important things in life (although, not many!) Enjoy, it really is a great forum, if you know what to believe and what to not. If you believe every thing you read, you will, soon become disenchanted! Hope that helps David

If you have different modles or even different ensebles showing varying solutions, then middle ground would have to be the form horse (in most circumstances). I have seen this many, many times. I guess because of peoples personel weather preference, sometimes they will choose to go with one of the solutions. But this will often lead to disapointment.

What you get up to in your own time is up to you!

I thought it looked a bit sleety in Canford Heath!

There is rain some places now, but colder air will feed in from north France later. This is just starting to happen now.

Yes after about 12-1pm, goes dry and then may be some sleet/rain. But, things may change, could be dry or further flurries instead.

It makes me feel warm inside!

Yep, well done Paul. Snow over Dartmoor National park! The Princetown contigincy should have snow soon.

Apologies, my remarks were not based on just that one post! Why are you surprised at rain now when the snow has never been forecast until tomorrow?

That is a bit like saying, the traffics lights are red, so they are going to be red this time tomorrow. Tempretures are forcast to be lower tomorrow morning compared to todays. I agree it may be marginal at times on the coast, but I am expecting to see a good 6 hours of snow before (if) it turns back to sleet / rain. There is still an outside chance it might remain as snow in my mind. TNW

Even at T15, there is a slight westward correction on the GFS for precipitation compared to the 12z

We are always hearing about different GFS runs being more reliable, i.e. bin the 6z, the 0z and 12z has more data etc.... Does anybody compile verification stats comparing the 4 different GFS runs? If so, where can these be found? On a separate note, I really only known a way of determining FI per each model, using the ensemble graphs and looking for divergence. Is there anyone that plots the operational graph lines from each model on the same graph to see where the model divergence is occurring. i.e. GFS, ECM, UKMO etc... operational 850 temps by day for a specific location? Hope that makes sense. Thanks in advance

Latest from Matt Hugo on the 18z "@MattHugo81: 18z GFS continues to trickle out and this looks another cold in up to and including next weekend"

Not necessarily! As has been said on here several times the models cover the whole atmosphere, so the SSW effect has already been considered in the current output. That is not to says things will not change, they inevitably do.

Would I be right in saying the models may struggle with forecasting the propagation, so once this has actually started happening the model will be using more robust data. Actual data rather than forecast?

Indeed those GFS short essembles posted above show a 15 degree variation in 850 temps at 168, so all to play for past next week.

And worth remembering that the ECM is curently the best verifying at 6 days, according to the data I saw a couple of days ago. But that can change, especially as the forecasted synoptics are now very different.

Thanks for the reply. So are you saying the models are forecasting the stratosphere to warm, but are not making any allowance for impact on the troposphere? Or are you saying the the models are so bad at handling the propagation, the true impact cannot be modelled so far out in the land of low resolution? David

Hi, Learning here, an answer to the below would help my understanding better... What is meant by "when the strat warming starts to feed in"? Surley it is already fed in? Is it not these very models that are forecasting the strat warming? Thanks

Nick, Am I right in thinking the lower the HPA, the higher up we are talking about? Is 850hpa (for example) always the same height? Or is that dictated by pressure patterns? Tks in advance

I have a couple of learning questions... Just read the netweather ensemble guide and it talks about spreads, are these the same as anomalies? The guide is talking specifically about the GFS, do the other models run ensemble data? If so are the data graphs and postage stamps viewable? Tks