Theresnoway

Whilst the signal might be "pretty strong", it does not mean it is right. If the medium range forecast can change at the drop of a hat, then I would not give too much weight to any long range forecast. I think some people fall into the trap of thinking well the models show it, so it must be right. How many times have we seen this not to be the case? In fact I would go as far to say, I feel more comfortable with them showing warm. Because when a cold outlook is forecasted at long range, it rarely seems to materialise. I would use the models and trends as guidance, not matter of fact! It may very well, and probably will change and change again. Plus surely the teleconnection forecasts are just a set of results from a long range model, so what means that these forecasts are going to come to fruition?

Excellent news. The fact that it is so far out means it stands a very, very small chance of verifying... (But must remember the same stands for when it is showing cold!)

Any update on the ECM 32? I believe that was due at 11pm...

It is yesterday's fax?

EDIT - was 5th person to post

Hi All, Nothing settling in Poole yet, 3 miles from coast. But hoping it will when precip intensifies.

Does that not just forecast based on the current trajectory?

For anyone who is confused. New meto orange warning is for ice!

Hi, As above, no snow in Canford Heath! Just sleety rain, defo not settling... Yet!

Well you are just on the right side of marginal in Wimborne, still has a sleety feel to it in Canford Heath and therefore not settling. Hopeing the temp will drop a little more. Going to stay up till about midnight, hope to see settling snow by then... Dave (Ever the optomist!)

18z NAE is delaying the PPN slightly compared to the 12z, this to me would suggest that it is predicting the block to be harder to break than first progged, it also fits in my mind with Ice's comment about the 18z GFS not letting the PPN get so far north... What I cannot figure out is how this will impact me in Poole.... UPDATE... Looking at the 24hr chart on the 18z NAE, there seems to be more leading edge rain than the 12z, awaiting the crucial 30hr Dave

Hi, In Canford Heath it is not as heavy as it was, but still moderate and settling. Anybody now how long this will last?

Hi Snow, I am in Canford Heath and it is not snowing, the cloud does seem to be getting darker though. Fingers crossed we can get a covering!

Looking at the latest Meto Radar (9am), I am hopefull. There is an area of moderate precipitation moving almost due west along the south coast, lets hope it falls as snow! If anyone has the netweather radar, maybe they can tell me where the precip is now. Thanks Dave

Paul, If I were you I would be having a conversation with Rackspace, that new server is not enough! It is very frustrating to have downtime to the forum on a night like this. Surley it will ultimatley impact your advertising revenue! Sorry for the tone of my post, just a little frustrated! Regards Dave

Maybe for tonight everybody could put their location in each post, would be useful! Thanks Dave (Poole) Edit: and just like that they are back on!

Hi Solar, I think the most important thing at the moment is establishing the cold / severe cold air source, precipitation in these situations can not be forecast acuratly until 24-36 hours out. Although the models do not currently prog much precipitation, I guarantee that some areas will see significant precipitation during this cold spell. As some one has already mentioned, any precipitation that does fall is likely to do so as snow. The longer the cold spell the more probability of snow fall. I am being carefull not do get dragged along with all the hype, but in terms of what I have seen from the model outputs, this really is unprecedented. More importantly, people who have been watching the models for a lot longer than me also agree. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks. Dave

Hi Mull, I wish that statement was true, but not according to the Met-Office, what is your source? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/dorchester_forecast_weather.html Also knowing local conditions I would say unlikely, medium / longer term forecast is looking more promising though. Hopefully we can get this cold pattern really locked over the whole of the uk and then for lows to track in from the South West, stalling over us rather than the Midlands / Wales. Dave

That is a very interesting difference... If Paul is reading, I would be very interested to hear about why this is different? Thanks

It should be here in just over 1/2 an hour, will tell you all about it tomorrow. Dave

Is it settling? I have to say the http://www.raintoday.co.uk is looking better, turing to snow as heading towards the coast, not going to bed quiet yet!

Well that is it, I have given up all false hope.... Just my bottle of whiskey to keep the comfort (and my wife up stairs!) Will stay here in hope for another hour or so, may get colder down south! Dave

OMG it really has turned sour in the midlands... 1 post in the last 36 minutes! I am for ever less hopefull!

I would go for the celebrity death! lol

Butler son!! What do you reckon? I reckon not looking good?? ?? But hopefull!