ukmoose
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Posts posted by ukmoose
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February has certainly turned out to be a cold month - but it hasn't been very 'interesting' in terms of cold for this part of the UK. Some, mostly light, frosts (not many actually) a little wet snow,some sleet and cold rain one night of freezing fog. Not what anyone could describe as an historic cold spell despite what the CET shows. The month has been dominated by 'possibilities' that have never quite come to fruition despite mostly very favourable synoptics. Just bad luck I guess.
Some places certainly seem to have done really well for snow which has lasted throughout in a very cold spell (Scotland, north east England, Pennines, North Yorks moors, Fells etc mostly) and Scotland seems to have done particularly well with deep embedded and consistent cold.
But for the south, whilst a cold month, February has largely disappointed for interesting 'cold spell' weather and this needs to be the caveat when looking at the CET overall I think.
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Rain, rain and more wretched rain...
:drinks: :wallbash:It's going to stay like that I would suggest. I have just driven back down the A5 and the snow was batting it down all the way (roads really dodgy in places) about until about Towcester where it turned to sleet and the snow just disa[ppeared after that. Interestingly, the temperature was 0C then just after Towcester it started to rise and was 3.5 when I got back here. The cold air is on;y about 10 to 15 miles north of here but a fair bit more for you!
I have to say that it was VERY heavy snow in places but it's definitely not heading this way now.
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And the CET outcome for each and every one of them months;
2010 1.4c (?)
1963 -2.1c
1941 0.5c
1940; -1.4c
1895 0.2c
1881; -1.5c
1871; 0.5c
1850; 0.7c
1842; 0.6c
1830; -0.2c
1829; 0.3c
1815; 0.3c
1814; -2.9c
1780; -0.9c
Now that's interesting!...2010 comes in higher out of that selected series. Almost tropical in comparison to most of them.
Should have been colder?
Yes indeed - that is what I suggested in the cold spell discussion thread yesterday.
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What's a little scary is the Europe has been so cold for so long and although we have tapped in to the cold from time to time, the cold has not, in my view, been exceptional in the south given the potential there has been. Exceptional for recent winters definitely yes. Bit would exceptional at other times in the past have delivered a sub zero CET?
Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone tonight as far as I can see and February will (more than likely) flatter to deceive once more. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of -ve AO and other favourable synoptics.
Very frustrating for cold lovers, so near yet so far... feels very much like defeat clutched from the jaws of victory once again and it seems like a very damp squib and bitterly disappointing end to a winter that has tried its best to deliver so much.
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Game over I think.
5.8 for me please.
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I think there is far too much hanging onto this sub 3C month business.
According to Philip Eden based on his figures we've had a 31 day period and a mid month to mid month period at that which is a fixed period of time in itself, that was sub zero
16th Dec -15th Jan CET: -0.3C (-4.8C)
There were people saying this can't be achieved now.
Furthermore last winter, we had a 11 week period that was sub 3C
:lol:
It's a benchmark. Some people don't like them - that's fair enough but they're still there.
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plenty of snow for the south west in Feb 1986 also.
In terms of winters in my lifetime I would rank them as follows: -
1 - 1978/79
2 - 1981/2
3 - 1985/86
4 - 1984/85
5 - 1986/87
=6 - 1990/91
=6 - 2009/10
8 - 1995/6
9 - 1996/7
10 - 2008/9
Obviously this winter still has scope to move a bit further up the list - I don't think there is too much between no 2 and no 6. We would need something special to challenge no 1 in the list however.
I think I would pretty much agree with this except I would put a little more distance between 2 to 6 in terms of intensity of these cold spells ie, depth of snow, drifting and lower temperatures (for this area at least).
We have had several falls of snow since 18th December here 15cms maybe the deepest at any one time which has been great. Some of those winters in the list above from Stu produced terrific drifts of several feet completely blocking even major roads. We haven't come anywhere near that though I realise some people may have done. Temperatures were also lower though I must admit I can't remember how long some of the spells lasted.
Really good winter since middle of December though - clearly way out in front of anything since the mid to early nineties. It would be great to see a sub 3 January and despite rising temperatures I think it's still looking good for that.
Any more for this winter? I wouldn't rule it out just yet but maybe not looking great for Feb if GP is anywhere near the mark and he usually is.
Even great winters can fizzle out to nothing - think back to Feb 82 et al.
I'd certainly take this winter even if there's no more to come.
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I think we have to say that this slight thaw has taken nearly everyone by surprise. Yesterday here, during daylight hours, the temperature did not get above minus 1. Light snow was forecast for up to 24 hours, maybe longer and the temperature was set to remain below zero.
I could tell when we went out at 7.30 yesterday evening that something was 'wrong' already - the temperature had risen just enough to get above freezing and whilst no precipitation, the air felt (and still feels) 'damp' not dry and cold.
I can only assume that the warm front had marginally higher temperatures than expected and that, along with passage over the North Sea, made all the difference.
Can't quite explain the snow in the south west though..?
And are we now in for a slow thaw over the next few days as warmer air tries to push in?
Whatever happens it has been a good spell of cold whether if not exceptional in these parts. Certainly more exceptional in other parts of the country though and the north may yet still remain cold.
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Blimey. I disappear for a few days and find that my location has been moved!
Better than being lumped in with that lot from Kent and Essex though <_< Good idea.
Beautiful ice day here again today but no snow. Did have a tiny bit last night - no melt of the five inches or so from Tuesday night which is great.
Let's see what happens over the next 48 hours...
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Having just read through this morning's posts on this thread, and before everyone gets too excited, please remember that old Tom is interpreting the models just like the more knowledgeable posters on this forum who have had a bit of a hard time lately.
Friday is a long, long way ahead in forecasting terms and as we have seen, snow is extremely difficult to predict even at short notice.
It looks good - but it has looked good for quite a number of days now and things change or don't quite verify in the way that is interpreted at the time. Forecasters can only do their best with the information they have to hand.
I would like to add my thanks and appreciation to all of those posters (we all know who you are!) who put a huge amount of time and effort in to posting on this forum, interpreting the charts and adding your own detailed knowledge. It's a fantastic read whatever comes to fruition and without you there would be no forum. Your hard work does not go unnoticed or unappreciated I can assure you.
Please keep the posts coming - any 'criticisms' are completely uncalled for but and borne more out of disappointment more than anything and should not detract in any way shape or form from the brilliant posts that you guys put on for others to read and learn from.
Thanks guys.
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Morning all.
Another beautiful morning here after a third consecutive very slight frost. Nice to see the sunshine after the cloud and drizzle yesterday evening.
Like a previous poster, we may just get through this severe event. Parts of Kent looking a fairly good bet for a bit of snow this week. Mostly dry and sunny for a lot of us I think.
Certainly nowhere near as cold (or as snowy) as the pre- Christmas cols spell here.
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Just seen the B.B.C. News 24 Weather forecast it's beginning to look very interesting from Tuesday onwards at last they have read this forum. :lol:
It always looks good from Tuesday onwards. A bit like free beer tomorrow!
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Cloudy here now and the warmest it's been all day with a little drizzle. Not a great cold spell so far ...
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So the 1st came out at -0.3C, but how does this compare to other years...
Well as often as I can I shall put up the rolling CET of the Jan from a selection of Jans, some of which started very cold but got above 3C, most of which were either colder, or in the case of some, exceptionally cold. I shall put them in order of the rolling CET, coldest at the top...next to it putting the eventual CET. Should give us a good idea by the 10-15th of where this month is likely to go with regards to the CET....should be interesting to see how certain months evolved.
Jan 1979 ---- -3.8C (-0.4)
Jan 1997 ---- -2.6 (2.5)
Jan 2009 ---- -0.9 (3.0)
Jan 1963 ---- -0.8 (-2.1)
Jan 1940 ---- -0.3 (-1.4)
Jan 2010 ---- -0.3
Jan 1868 ---- 1.4 (3.9)
Jan 1894 ---- 1.6 (3.2)
Jan 1985 ---- 4.0 (0.
Also worth noting that since the 11th we have averaged 1.8C and thats only going to further drop away, and the 20 day rolling CET could well reach 0C at some point in the next 10 days if we get a few strong CET Ice days.
I'm also running a 'required to reach' CEt projection which shows what people need to reach thier targets, I'd imagine some of the milder punts will be needing something rather impressive by mid month!
Thanks KW - an interesting addition to the usual cet comp and some very interesting figures you have posted there.
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Latest CET results in and a big well done to Terminal Moraine who got 3.1 spot on, North Sea Snow Convection was 0.1c out and Polar Side was 0.2c out.
From that you can probably guess it was a cold month.
Thanks again Jackone for a fantastic job with the results.
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Im I the only member now?
And looking to be dry for the next few days so I dont expect to leave the club anytime soon!
Nah - I'll join. Not a flake here. (Did well before Christmas so couldn't join then!)
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It's good to hear that some people have had a bit of the white stuff - enjoy!
Two lovely days here since the rain cleared up. Two slight frosts for the last two nights and lovely blue sky and sunshine. No snow at all (in fact slightly warmer here today than yesterday by a degree or so up to 4C).
Certainly nice but not quite the biting cold I was expecting by now and quite hard to imagine how wintry some places must be.
Can't complain though and we did quite well out of the snow before Christmas.
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Updated list as follows:
15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
161 1.3-C: cooling climate Late 10 P Points
111 0.5-C: stewfox
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
168 0.9C: Kentish Man Late 10 P Points
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
109 1.3C: fozi999
107 1.4C: Norrance
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
119 1.6C: Mr Maunder
136 1.6C: Stu London
142 1.6C: Tommyd1258
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
112 1.8C: Polar Side
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
138 1.9C: snowmaiden
154 1.9C: StormMad26 Late 10 P Points
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
117 2.1C: Great Plum
129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
101 2.2C: Cal
137 2.2C: sundog
65 2.3C: damianslaw
135 2.3C: phil n.warks
150 2.3C: themusicland
38 2.4C: sufc
103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006
169 2.4C: osmposm Late 20 P Points
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
106 2.5C: artic fox
114 2.5C: Don
126 2.5C: Snowman0697
152 2.5C: Glacier Point
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
153 2.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
80 2.7C: adamjones416
102 2.7C: Tonyh
125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
124 2.8C: reef
141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
95 2.9C: mk13
128 2.9C: chionomaniac
143 2.9C: JACKONE
90 3.0C: davehsug
99 3.0C: ned
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
88 3.2C: TomSE20
118 3.2C: ukmoose
7 3.3C: Koppite
113 3.3C: Jack Wales
121 3.3C: DR Hosking
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
144 3.4C: Stargazer
14 3.5C: BARRY
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
115 3.6C: lostobsessed
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
167 3.7C: acbrixton Late 10 P Points
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
123 4.0C: rikki
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
151 4.5C: igloo
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
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10.5 please
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15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
142 1.6-C: Tommyd1258
111 0.5-C: stewfox
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
109 1.3C: fozi999
107 1.4C: Norrance
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
119 1.6C: Mr Maunder
136 1.6C: Stu London
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
112 1.8C: Polar Side
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
138 1.9C: snowmaiden
154 1.9C: StormMad26 Late 10 P Points
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
117 2.1C: Great Plum
129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
101 2.2C: Cal
137 2.2C: sundog
65 2.3C: damianslaw
135 2.3C: phil n.warks
150 2.3C: themusicland
38 2.4C: sufc
103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
106 2.5C: artic fox
114 2.5C: Don
126 2.5C: Snowman0697
152 2.5C: Glacier Point
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
153 2.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
80 2.7C: adamjones416
102 2.7C: Tonyh
125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
124 2.8C: reef
141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
95 2.9C: mk13
128 2.9C: chionomaniac
143 2.9C: JACKONE
90 3.0C: davehsug
99 3.0C: ned
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
88 3.2C: TomSE20
118 3.2C: ukmoose
7 3.3C: Koppite
113 3.3C: Jack Wales
121 3.3C: DR Hosking
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
144 3.4C: Stargazer
14 3.5C: BARRY
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
115 3.6C: lostobsessed
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
149 3.7C: Kentish Man
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
123 4.0C: rikki
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
151 4.5C: igloo
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
OK I think that's it but let me know if I have missed anything - especially late revisions.
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I put in -0.5c on 30th but its not on the list ?
Sorry - I will put you in!
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I would concur with Karyo. He was being slightly tongue in cheek, but you might have missed that it seems.
The underlying point that Karyo is making is that last winter some members, yourself included (I think) made a lot of the 3C being some sort of 'psychological cold barrier' that the UK somehow had to overcome in order to suggest that this Island could still achieve what one would deem signifcantly cold enough winters.
Regarding the general scheme of things that you mention - it seems to me no coincidence that we have seen synoptical changes and patterns exactly in tandem with a solar minimum as well as other factors. Such factors being one's that don't fit in with the man made reasons for recent warming trends which you and others would strongly eshew. Two cold UK winters doesn''t make a cold climate, but it is a short term demonstration that the variables aren't as clear cut in terms of the drivers - as they seem to some. And they counter the turning tide post 1987 remarks that we were supposed to not be able to see these sort of synoptics again in a 21st century winter.
Hello.
Tongue in cheek perhaps; but meant.
The climate has warmed for the last 100 years, especially so in the last 10 to 20. Whether this will reverse anytime soon, who knows. I am merely pointing out the obvious - that it is warmer now than it was and (as I have said many times) this pattern has been repeated throughout history. Climate fluctuates. Always has, always will I should think.
Man made factors play a part in this (probably) but we don't know how much.
You are right. I did question whether the 3 barrier could be breached anytime soon. I think 20 odd years without it being breached was a fairly good yardstick don't you? I will be delighted if it is broken mind you - and would be very happy to be proved wrong.
I don't want to see a continuing warming trend with all the horrors it would bring for millions in the world and hope that it stops soon. I just think the trend, for now, is less rapidly upwards.
Have a snowy, Happy New Year and a sub 3 January.
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OK
15 3.4-C: paul tall
44 3.1-C: Supercell
8 0.1-C: trickydicky
37 0.2C: Optimus Prime
10 1.0C: Polar Gael
42 1.1C: NaDamantaSam
3 1.2C: Snowstorm1
109 1.3C: fozi999
107 1.4C: Norrance
53 1.5C: Gavin P
57 1.6C: snowlover2009
119 1.6C: Mr Maunder
136 1.6C: Stu London
11 1.7C: LomondSnowstorm
67 1.8C: Roger J Smith
112 1.8C: Polar Side
9 1.9C: alza
71 1.9C: Snowyowl9
72 1.9C: BLAST FROM THE PAST
138 1.9C: snowmaiden
47 2.0C: AderynCoch
49 2.0C: casparjack
45 2.1C: Iceni
56 2.1C: V for Very Cold
117 2.1C: Great Plum
129 2.2C: Devon-Nelly
63 2.2C: vrtualsphere
101 2.2C: Cal
137 2.2C: sundog
65 2.3C: damianslaw
135 2.3C: phil n.warks
38 2.4C: sufc
103 2.4C: SNOW-MAN2006
92 2.5C: North Sea Snow Convection
106 2.5C: artic fox
114 2.5C: Don
126 2.5C: Snowman0697
39 2.6C: kold weather
51 2.6C: pjb120
80 2.7C: adamjones416
102 2.7C: Tonyh
125 2.7C: Thundery wintry showers
58 2.8C: Magamoonflake
124 2.8C: reef
141 2.8C: Duncan McAllister
6 2.9C: mike Meehan
48 2.9C: AtlanticFlamethrower
95 2.9C: mk13
128 2.9C: chionomaniac
143 2.9C: JACKONE
78 3.0C: RAIN RAIN RAIN
90 3.0C: davehsug
99 3.0C: ned
31 3.1C: Paul T
35 3.1C: izi
73 3.1C: The watcher
88 3.2C: TomSE20
118 3.2C: ukmoose
7 3.3C: Koppite
113 3.3C: Jack Wales
121 3.3C: DR Hosking
46 3.4C: Anti-Mild
59 3.4C: SteveB
69 3.4C: DAVID SNOW
144 3.4C: Stargazer
14 3.5C: BARRY
77 3.5C: The PIT
2 3.6C: mark bayley
115 3.6C: lostobsessed
1 3.7C: summer blizzard
19 3.8C: Mr Data
22 3.8C: Pete Tattum
41 3.8C: shuggee
50 3.8C: high ground birmingham
52 3.9C: Paul Sherman
23 4.0C: fozfoster
123 4.0C: rikki
25 4.1C: osmposm
24 4.4C: Milhouse
13 4.5C: mullender83
12 4.9C: Paranoid
5 5.6C: James M
27 8.0C: Craig Evans
Still time for the late punters.
Much as I am tempted by the thought of breaking the 3 barrier I am going to stick just above 3 minded by the blow torch effect that has ruined all sub 3 prospects in recent years. Just hope I'm wrong.
Last post from me so for all those with latish entries (SF?) I will update tomorrow. (Any double entries or errors please let me know).
A Happy and Peaceful New Year to one and all and let's hope we get what we all wish for, weather-wise and beyond.
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I'm going to put confidence in this cold spell lasting a while - 1.6c.
Sorry, is that 1.6 or minus 1.6 C ?
:drinks: 
:wallbash:
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not sure about any potent easterly from these charts but you have a much better idea than me Teits.
I can say that late March 1975 (not sure where I'd get the archive charts from) produced quite a large snowfall in the midlands with sub zero temperatures at night, barely above freezing during the day for several days.