Southender

Haha. Eyes to the lamp posts from about 6pm tonight mate. Hopeful of some beefy flakes for an hour or two before it clears.

Most encouraging line for me is "delaying the start time a little" I am still thinking rain until around 5-6pm, then gradually turning more wintry after this with the potential for an hour or two of some fairly heavy snow falling on the back edge. Unlikely accumulations to low levels, but perhaps a few cm up on the hills.

As I said earlier this morn, before dark mostly rain at low levels. As the front clears 6-9pm there is a chance of back edge flakes. Then eyes turn to the band moving down from the north west around 7-10am tomorrow. Much better chance of snow then as conditions are more favourable.

Leith Hill isn't it?

That is a big old deviation for such a short time frame. Potentially 5-6mb which could nudge it further South 50 miles perhaps, which could have big consequences!. Let's hope for a Southerly adjustment and a delay/stall.

Perfect example of high ground will make the difference. Downs/Chilterns etc.

My advice would be to treat this afternoon/eve as a bonus if you see any snow. The chances of snow dramatically increase after 6pm tonight and right through the weekend. So not all doom and gloom, just treat today as a taster for what may come from Fri morning onwards.

This highlights the 850 temps for the two features today and early tomorrow. If it is on the money you will see the problem we have with todays feature. Too much milder air wrapped up in it giving us mostly rain with perhaps an hour of snow on the back edge, before it clears the whole region by around 9pm. If it were to track further south, then that will increase our chances of a longer spell of snow. Look out your window from around 5/6pm and see what is happening, as the models have no idea. Personally I am writing any settling snow off for my location, but expecting to see a few flakes falling on the back edge, nothing more. The feature moving down early hours Fri morning looks far more promising for snow. You will note a milder wedge of air coming down from the N/NW but we are talking -4 850's at worst in the far East. Compared to today where we are nudging positive 850's. If it keeps that track, then quite a few if not all of us could be heading to work with a dusting of snow (1-2cm tops) I think this is the best shot of settling snow out of the two features over the next 24hrs or so. Dewpoints for same time frame. Look at the difference after 6pm today.

Depends where you are in the region! ppn further west brings a mild sector into play in the east. Ppn further east and the west potentially miss out. Tough one and a knife edge nowcast radar watch!

Thats what we want. Any hint of a stall is good news.

Good to see you back Kold!! Old-timers assemble...

Exactly and that is my best guess also. Plenty of rain with some beefy back edge flakes after dark, with no accumulations unless you are above about 150m.

Yep. Several hours of steady rain beforehand will screw any real chance of snow that sticks. Expecting some pretty hefty flakes at some point after dark, but not the sticking type due to ground conditions. So in theory there should be no issues for any city commuters. But, who knows the weather has a habit of making mugs out of us all including multi million pounds super computers and uber qualified pro's. So expect the unexpected tomorrow eve.

I don't see that being an issue.

Very wise Surrey. We have been here a long time and seen many "events" go titicus verticus at T+0..... I am of the opinion that if it can go wrong for snow in our neck of the woods, it usually will! But, how nice to be talking about a chance of snow for the first time in years!

Yep. I think for us in this region, what we really want is for it to deepen and nudge further south reducing the marginality a touch. Either way it is going to rain tomorrow, there is no getting away from that. It is how quickly the colder air can be sucked in and turn it to snow is what we need to nail down. To be honest I think it is going to be a case of looking out your window as you say. All that said, you watch it all slip south and hammer Northern France now.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED Blythburgh and marshes upstream of A12 Felixstowe Ferry & Bawdsey Quay Isolated riverside properties on the Deben Estuary North Bank of the Humber Estuary at Hessle Foreshore North Sea at Sandsend Southwold and surrounding marshes

Yep. More chance of "accumulating" snow than Thurs afternoon/eve that is for sure, especially further North & East in the region and away from immediate coasts, as always. Hopefully most of us will have a cm laying on the ground by sunrise Fri, although if something can spoil that it usually will. There will be a mild sector of air coming down with the snow band on Fri morning, so no doubt that will leave some of us on the wrong side of marginal. I think that band will chop and change its positioning for the next 24/36hrs so best leave it to the radar. A nudge east wouldn't be a bad thing as that should take the mild sector out over the North Sea leaving all of us with a shot at proper snow on Fri morn, with a better chance of settling than Thurs. Albeit perhaps only a dusting of 1cm.

I think the likely outcome is rain with a spell of snow on the back edge. Little chance of accumulations. Still, will be nice to see some flakes at last!

After a cm or so of rain beforehand, it would have to go some to settle Frosty? I will take just seeing it fall to be honest!

Yes I was about to say the same. Shame we have to get through about 1cm of rain before any potential back edge white stuff. Still, will be nice to see the first snow flakes for around 4 years in this neck of the woods.

Fingers crossed mate! The snow/rain line is going to change so much between now and then. Hoping for a few flakes, even though it won't settle. First flakes in around 4 years perhaps?!

Well the lack of posts across the board sums the situation up nicely. Unless you are up a hill in the north, there is jack to get excited about for the next week at least. Still, had a few frosts this winter and its been very dry. Better than last year. But now approaching 4 years without snow. Zzzz

Starting to get that sinking feeling already about this winter. Another that could of delivered, but hasn't (yet) Frustrating to see yet again a few hundred miles to our East they are in a deep freeze, even Greece/Turkey/Cyprus etc....but as usual it never makes it here despite charts hinting at it every so often. Usually at the famous "Day 10" mark which never gets any shorter. Better than the usual rain/wind/zonal dross for sure, but equally as gutting when you see what they are getting on the continent. There cannot be a worse place on Earth at our latitude for snow, than the UK. Someone turn off the jet stream just for a couple of weeks....please......transient cool shots from the N/NW just won't cut it I am afraid. Especially darn sarf. But I fear this is the only option on the table this winter. Sigh. **Google searches "Homes in Canada"**

So first it was a front loaded cold December. Then it was delayed to early Jan. Now the talk is mid-late Jan for winter proper to arrive. Anyone see a pattern developing here?