NL

Happy to see no snow here last night right on the coastline, plenty of hefty hail showers though hammering off the windows and waking me several times..!

More importantly is that its 10 days away..!!

For the NE it'll probably start around 9pm ( although its pretty windy now 30+mph) peaking around 10-11pm then easing after 1am.

Snow has now petered out and has been replaced with rain.

Tis even snowing here right on the coast.

The barbs are in Knots and the colours represent KPH..

Beautiful animated film showing the suns interactions with earth takes 1st prize in the video category of the 2013 International Science and Engineering Visualization Challenge . http://www.livescience.com/43144-dynamic-earth-how-the-sun-influences-our-planet-planetarium-show-excerpt.html

ESTOFEX have issued a level 2 for western Ireland and a level 1 for western parts of the UK for severe wind gusts. http://www.estofex.org/

Perhaps its time for a 'new' head, shed.

Occasional Cb's flirting pretty close to the North East coast although I think they'll stay off-shore. Hope the ESTOFEX forecast comes off for you southerners, it could turn out quite lively.

ESTOFEX's take on developments today. DISCUSSIONSouthern British Isles to western FranceThe west-European mid-level trough expands east during the day. Cold air advection is expected especially at mid-levels, while low-level maritime air masses are advected into the forecast region. Due to strong DCVA, QG lift is expected, and differential cold air advection results in steepening lapse rates from the west. At low levels, a moist south-westerly flow will persist, and weak CAPE will be possible during the day.Due to the large-scale favourable forcing, showers and thunderstorms forming in the maritime air mass are expected. Especially over the land, strong 0-3 km vertical wind shear will allow for multicells and mesocyclones (favourably low-level veering and 0-3 km SRH around 150 m²/s²). Given a large overlap of strong low-level vertical wind shear (0-1 km bulk shear 12 m/s), mesocyclones and tornadoes are not ruled out. Limiting factors are the rather weak low-level buoyancy and the lack of pronounced low-level warm air advection. Additionally, persistent multicells with bowing segments will be capable of producing severe wind gusts at the leading edge of fast moving cold pools (850 hPa winds around 20 m/s).Convective activity will likely spread east but is expected to weaken given limited low-level moisture. Additionally, advection of drier low-level air will reduce the instability in the evening hours across most of France. Convective activity is therefore forecast to weaken.

Heres a photo of the coastguard station showing it to be much safer than the other photo suggests.

Looking like ESTOFEX's forecast is coming into fruition with a line of deep convection already affecting SW UK heading through Cornwall presently. The first wave affects S-UK/NW France (09 to 15Z) with a rapid SW-NE motion. Surface pressure fields confirm a weak stamp at low-levels with a temporal increase of BL mixing ratios. Coupled to cooling mid-levels, 200-500 J/kg SBCAPE seems likely over S-UK and NW France. Faint backing ahead of that wave also increases LL directional shear with latest GFS output confirming SRH-1 in excess of 200 m^/s^2. Modest forcing, favorable placement beneath the left exit of a powerful 500 hPa jet, a weakly capped air mass, a 70kt storm motion vector aligned near parallel to a LL wind shift/convergence zone and aforementioned CAPE increase confidence in numerous fast moving showers/isolated thunderstorms with some bowing (severe wind gust) and tornado potential. A compact line of deeper convection could also cause a swath of severe wind gusts. http://www.estofex.org/ Netweather 5min radar. http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Sorry I stand corrected the barbs are showing around 50 knots.(really need to get these reading glasses renewed.!!)

I think ba's optimism is justified as the strat is starting to show changes, this of course wont be shown in the model output yet.

ESTOFEX http://www.estofex.org/ Level 1 for Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. mention the possibility of a few storms this evening into Ireland and the chance of a tornado can't be ruled out. Bowing lines are possible over Northern BI with strong LL vertical wind shear forecasted. Northern British IslesA new storm will affect the northern British Isles late in the period. Along the cold front, rather stable conditions are expected, and severe thunderstorms are rather unlikely. The best potential of a few embedded thunderstorms exost across northern Irleland on Thursday evening. These storms, however, may be capable of producing severe wind gusts given the strong background wind field. Additionally, a tornado is not ruled out.In the wake of the cold front, a well mixed maritime air mass will enter the northern British Isles. Especially near the base of the trough, thunderstorms are possible. Given strong low-level vertical wind shear, some bowing lines are forecast to enhance the wind potential and a level 1 is warranted.

Amber warnings also for wind in the North East, Darlington, Durham, Gateshead, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Newcastle upon Tyne, North Tyneside, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, South Tyneside, Stockton-on-Tees, Sunderland

I can see the headlines in the tabloids.. Christ'MASS' destruction..!! And Britain knocked out on boxing day..

If any of you are familiar with South Shields, this was the scene at the Groyne earlier this morning.

Severe gusts now battering Tyne & Wear and it just happens to be recycle bin day and there's cans, bottles and cardboard strewned all over the place..!!

Plethora of Sferics showing out in the North Sea. NW 5min radar.

A level 2 issued for Scotland from ESTOFEX. http://www.estofex.org/ So for Scotland the storm starts today.

Who are these 'experts'?.. No doubt self acclaimed..!

Wont be the first snowfall of the season as we had snow fall although briefly on the 19th November.