NL

Still a 10% chance of a tornado where the Moderate risk was, the Moderate risk was in place mainly for extensive severe hail but in the latest observations this doesn't look likely, presently ..Keep the faith, the atmosphere will establish itself and treat you to some spectacular supercells late afternoon..!!

Tomorrow's risk has now gone MODERATE.. SPC AC 071726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SW TX TO IL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATES INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATE. DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SUBSTANTIAL FLOW EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A PRONOUNCED DRY LINE DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONG SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HIGH-LEVEL VENTING SHOULD RESULT IN A CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN OK. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 18Z...TRANSLATING INTO WRN OK BY 09/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ABSENT DAY1 CONVECTIVE DISRUPTION...SHOULD EASILY ADVANCE NWD TOWARD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF IN AN E-W FASHION ACROSS SRN KS/SERN CO. IF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM...ROBUST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FAVORABLY SHEARED BOUNDARY THAT COULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. EVEN SO...DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF NWRN TX...NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT PROFILES CHARACTERISTIC OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FOCUSED LLJ AIDS INFLOW. DURING THE EVENING...SEVERE CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. ..DARROW.. 05/07/2015 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1745Z (6:45PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Very bright echoes showing on the radar presently.. Hail for certain, hoping for a few sparks..!! ©Netweather 5min radar v4

Fantastic structure on the cell pushing through Dublin Tx.

And not forgetting the sound of booming thunder and penetrating hail storms..!!

Sometimes it feels like I'm living in another country, all this talk of warm temperatures this week in the UK.. not here I'm afraid, highest temperature Netweather 7 day forecast have is 12℃ tomorrow then downhill after that with thursday looking absolutely dreadful as far as temps are concerened..at least the sun will be shining..!! Saturday looks like a late January forecast.

Number 8 Broken Bow, Nebraska, the High Plains rarely deliver poor structures and to capture the lightning spouting from the upper layers is pure magic. Number 11 Ballinger, Texas. Not much beats a low precipitation supercell. Number 17 Campo, Colorado. A beautiful looking 'stove-pipe' tornado.

Although I agree its a dumb move as I'm sure he would have seen the tornado way before he was that close but this guy is not a chaser he was on his way to Indianapolis on a business meeting and has never experienced weather like this.

A very close encounter with the 'Rochelle' Illinois tornado. The driver of the truck remains extremely composed considering a violent wedge tornado is about to wreck everything in its path. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGmJCB0x21s

Its not often we see a 'cloud-free' Europe...well almost..!! http://sat24.com/

Horrendous conditions up here on the coast of NE England. Hail, sleet and snow blowing quickly through on a very strong Nor'westerly, gusts around 40mph currently.

ESTOFEX has most of the UK under a level 1 warning mainly for convective gusts. DISCUSSION ... British Isles, Benelux, N France, SW Germany ... Within the shortwave trough the advection of cold air of polar origin and thus the cold front is expected to pass trough Ireland, S Great Britain, Benelux, N France and SW Germany. CAPE is forecast to be marginal (100-200 J/kg) but it will occur in the highly sheared environment. Although free convective layer will be shallow, both very high 0-6 (40-50 m/s) and 0-3km (20-25 m/s) vertical wind shear indicate that convection may organize into linear feature and create risk for the severe wind gusts of convective origin. Significant mid and low level air flow according to NWP data may provide convective gusts up to 25-30 m/s, if convection will be involved, it is possible that these gusts may be even stronger. Increased LLS exceeding 15 m/s, 0-1km SRH ~ 150 m2/s2 overlapping with marginal instability and favorable QG-forcing create also risk for the significant tornado occurrence. Certainty to the lightning activity is decreased mainly due to relatively warm cloud tops, shallow free convective layer and low thermodynamic instability. Therefore only 15% probability for the lightning is issued. The highest threat for the severe weather occurrence and linearly organized storms will fall on British Isles between 0900 and 1500Z http://www.estofex.org/

Snowing quite heavily here again on the coast..

Dont throw the towel in yet Nick. Those showers to our North are heading this way, should start to make an appearance around 10pm. Dewpoint here now has just gone into -values and temp is falling off quickly now. ©Netweather 5min radar V4. The arrows are the 500mb and 700mb wind direction. (the movement of the shower clouds)

Looks like that shower that hit here earlier has slid by Jarrow/Hebburn just to the south. Just very wet here and cant see any ice/frost developing as the temp here is 2.1℃, it is falling but with the wind expected to come off the north sea i cant see it falling below freezing around coastal areas.

Sleet is now increasingly turning to snow here ,teaming down in a strong NW veering N/NE. So bodes quite well for you lot further inland.

Looking like rain/sleet to snow event especially away from coasts but even here there could be snow. Aberdeen recorded rain this afternoon but were recently reporting heavy snow showers. Dew points and temps are set to fall in our region 9pm onwards as the colder 850hpa approach from the north. That brisk NNEasterly might scupper snow chances on the coastline.

Yes it is as its snowing quite moderately and not a breath of wind, 10p sized flakes gently falling. Would go out and take photos but I'm suffering with the Novo-virus..!

Moderate snowfall right here on the coast and settling everywhere now. Where the snow had melted earlier has now frozen and the snow is settling quite readily. If that little blob of cloud just above my location can produce snow as much as what Ive just seen fall those showers out in the North sea should dump a few cm, thats if they can keep together as they make landfall. ©Netweather 5min radar V4

Snow is melting on some parts of the pavements, but cars,grass and roofs becoming covered albeit very slowly. Showers need to intensify for a decent covering.

Proper snow shower and everything is turning white.

And here.. must be blowing on from this. ©Netweather 5min radar

We all know that ppn charts for the next day or two aren't incredibly reliable but EURO 4 has a lot more of the region experiencing snowfall by 06z Wednesday morning.

Depending on the movement of the Lp sliding down the north sea 850hpa temps may become marginal for snow along the coasts. ©Netweather 5min radar.

I really wouldn't worry about air temps. If the dp's can stay below freezing snow will fall and evaporation will aid in cooling the surrounding air.. Should be huge flakes if this occurs.