NL

With Christmas just around the corner I was wondering when the Christmas skin will be available? Is there going to be a new skin or the wonderful one from last year? Cheers Paul.

Its not so much we need bigger computers but more data input from 'out-there' places. The Atlantic is a very big ocean with few 'data stations' as is the Arctic. In reality we don't do so bad with what we have.

Yes but this time it has support from the 500mb charts, so looking more likely than this weeks attempt.

Very well explained forecast Stewart (and its free!) Hope your forecast comes to fruition not just as you predict cold but getting it 'spot on' would surely dent the reputations of those 'professionals' that charge for their mid/long range forecasts.

An attack from the east/northeast isn't going to happen this week. Yes its going to feel chilly in the north of the UK and a little below in the south but not cold enough for snow except for the higher ground north Pennines and the highlands of 'bonny' Scotland. Looking promising around 5/6th Dec for a renewed attack from a east/Northeasterly direction which has the potential to deliver.

Thanks John for your analysis on the 500mb charts and your continued faith in what they show. So W/NW flow for the next week or so is predicted by these charts?

The rain has been relentless all day and now it has intensified with strong Nor'easterly winds gusting around 25-30mph. Rain gauge is reading 26.4mm since midnight and if this keeps up I'm sure we'll have over 30mm by tomorrow morning.

All this talk of whether it will snow at low levels/coastal regions is all guess work. Remember the 26th Oct this year we had snow falling right on the coast here in the north east..wish I'd kept the charts from that day to compare them with what's to come.

Quite a LEWP (squall echo) showing on radar just approaching the Cornish coastline.. Going to get quite vicious down that part of the UK. NW 5min radar

Not looking good for the SW of the country with more heavy rain forecast for Thursday. 12 hr accumulative rain map already shows rainfall up to 40mm. Could be some flash flooding on Thursday as the forecasted squall passes through. Netweather 12hr accumulative rainfall

Morning everyone, John thats the reason I quoted Matt's post. It seems every time the charts show potential cold in the far reaches of FI that the cold is going to last throughout winter which of course rarely if ever happens. Most snow lovers want to see snow/cold at Christmas but the ECM 32 is possibly saying otherwise... Sorry if my post has upset anyone as this was not my intentions. PS. This is only my 2nd or 3rd post in the model thread. Reasons for not posting often is obvious.!!

Matt Hugo has mentioned heights to the NW/N of the UK diminishing around 2nd week of December with a return to zonal conditions. Matt Hugo Stratospheric Watch thread. The ECMWF 32 day update overnight as well maintains the signal for northern blocking through the 2nd week of December now with temperatures clearly becoming generally below average by a number of degrees. Without question, this excellent model, has nailed this situation down weeks in advance in terms of the broader change in synoptic pattern. However, what it now shows, is a return to more zonal conditions towards and beyond mid-December which is a concern. The +ve height anoms to the N and NW of the UK disappear by the 4th week of the run and are replaced by lower than average pressure anoms to the W and SW of the UK with temperatures recovering back to nearer average given a more unsettled theme.

Amazing footage here of the tornado making a direct hit on a football stadium.

Just been confirmed from the reconnaissance aircraft that the centre is 941mb..

Snowing here right on the coast and has been for the last 20 mins or so..Snow settling on grass and cars but not on the roads/pavements.

Hail, graupel and snow on and off here in South Shields right on the NE coast in strong North Easterly winds. Feeling very cold...

Jim Dale ...!!!

Even 'nowcasting' is becoming particularly difficult, I thought this afternoon would brighten up along the NE coast as visible satellite showed clouds clearing out in the north sea but as they approached the coastline they quickly filled to produce non-stop rain, heavy at times. Just reached 25mm today bringing the total to 47.1mm with still plenty to come by the looks of the radar. NW 5min radar.

A break from the wind and rain around 11am as the centre of the low passed over this region, the barometer bottomed out at 967.11mb and now steadily rising (977mb currently). The rain and wind have picked up again but looking hopeful of a little brightness this afternoon going by visible radar images here on the North East coast. Looks like we've missed the 'worst' of the rain here with around 40mm in 24hrs.

Its pretty windy here on the coast Paul, nothing out of the ordinary yet but the worst of the wind/rain is set to arrive evening and through the night up here the north east. Currently the wind is North-Easterly at 25mph, gusting to around 35-40mph. Not much rain as yet with 8mm since midnight.

Lightning out into the North sea can be observed from my bedroom window, intermittent but as always at night quite spectacular. I would go and take some photos but knowing my luck I'd get all set up and the lightning would cease and at only 9ºC out there in a breeze gusting to 18mph it'll be pretty cold.

Here's a few photos, none with lightning unfortunately. (Thunder still clattering on..!!)

Thought I heard thunder, not surprising considering the Cb's floating around here and the radar echoes are very bright. We also had quite a hail shower about an hour ago.

Formation of noctilucent clouds is thought to begin with the 'smoke' given off by meteors. http://www.livescien...-clouds.html?FB Makes sense as water droplets/ice particles are created by using dust as the nucleus.

June 28th was memorable.