NL

Well the latest NOAA CPC 8-14 day 500Mb chart is showing high pressure to the NE of the US and LP over BI dragging down a possible northerly/nor'easterly.

Well I was going to post earlier today to say the thermometer reading was 10ºC but felt much colder, I even hung my washing out at 9:30am hoping it would dry, but after nearly 7 hrs hanging it was still wet!!

I'm not surprised we'd get some sort of wintry precip considering the temperature was below freezing but what has surprised me was this small band ahead of the main bulk which has given us a dusting, shame its all going to be washed away later in the day.

I got an ear full for posting this back on the 20th Nov and look what has happened into the 2nd week of December. I'm not saying the ECM32 dayer is infallible but it did see this 'milder' scenario way back then. Posted 20 November 2012 - 07:51 Matt Hugo has mentioned heights to the NW/N of the UK diminishing around 2nd week of December with a return to zonal conditions. Matt Hugo Stratospheric Watch thread. The ECMWF 32 day update overnight as well maintains the signal for northern blocking through the 2nd week of December now with temperatures clearly becoming generally below average by a number of degrees. Without question, this excellent model, has nailed this situation down weeks in advance in terms of the broader change in synoptic pattern. However, what it now shows, is a return to more zonal conditions towards and beyond mid-December which is a concern. The +ve height anoms to the N and NW of the UK disappear by the 4th week of the run and are replaced by lower than average pressure anoms to the W and SW of the UK with temperatures recovering back to nearer average given a more unsettled theme.

Hey the snowfolk are back.!! Cheers Paul & team.

I'm having a good chuckle to myself reading some of those posts, tis like a bloody playground for 'naughty' children.

Goes to show how cr@p the models are at prediction..!

Thats not a million miles away for what the 500Mb cpc 8-14 day show for the 22nd.

What's going on with the Met offices winter updates. Their first call for the winter was slightly below average winter temperatures for the UK then they updated it recently to below average temperatures and now their latest winter forecast states above normal temperatures. Have they ever been so undecided in the past..? I just don't get it. Back to the old days of forecasting is the best bet far to much reliance on deterministic modelling and mathematical madness.

You got to be kiddin'!!! 2.7ºC outside presently and I'm right on the coast..!!! You couldn't get any further from the truth there CC..... balmy the weather aint but..............

The 'milder' or should I say "the not so cold" weather is only going to skirt the far south and southern Ireland with average (7ºC) to a little above (10-11ºC) at best and this looks at the moment to be a fairly transient affair lasting a couple of days then joining the remainder of the country with average to slightly below (4-6ºC) with the lowest temperatures further north and east you go, the winds are also forecasted to strengthen so its going to feel raw wet and cold. I'll certainly not be putting my winter clothing away for awhile yet.!!

Maybe the title should be the hunt for snow, as its cold out there today at least a few degrees down on what it should be at this time of year.

If there were no blocking and a raging zonal Atlantic then the word 'potential' wouldn't be getting used. Whilst the models show blocking to the north and a shifting polar vortex potential for a cold Northeasterly/easterly will be forever present.

I think we'd be looking at the photos from the metro if you did.!! haha

Andy just grease ya hair up brush it to the side ,put a pair of sellotaped national health glasses on and a scruffy anorak then nobody would bat an eyelid at you taking photos..!! haha

Heavy rain/sleet now in a brisk Nor'easterly, bloody awful , glad I'm indoors now but I had a pleasant walkabout in the sunshine and observed some 'grand' Cb's floating around.

Rain you say? Hefty hail shower here on the coast.! Melts within a minute or so though.

Just like to add that sleet and hail showers have been falling here on the coast, pretty nasty out there in a penetrating NNWesterly.

Just a heads up that Channel 4 are showing a weather documentary entitled "Is our weather getting worse"? scheduled on Tuesday 11th Dec @ 8pm. Have a feeling that it may end up 'sensationalized' with charletons and scaremongers with little scientific evidence.

Very sad news. I just watched the latest Sky At Night the other day and sadly he looked very tired, an inspiration a fine gentleman. A man who never married after his fiancée was tragically killed during WW2 he was totally heartbroken. I'll never forget when he explained the difference between Astronomy and Astrology saying that Astronomy was the study of space,planets stars, etc and Astrology "Utter bunkum, utter bunkum..!!! I think his ashes should be the first to be buried on the moon as this was his first love that got him interested in the cosmos.

Which snowplough will you be using this winter?

Or get the flags out when the models show what they did on the 5th..!!

Cold weather alert from the met office is now the highest at level 3 for the coming week. They also state that heavy snow showers giving significant accumulations locally in the east of the country... Looking very disruptive for us lot in the NE... The rest of the country will hate us northeasterners by the end of the week when we post knee deep snow pictures..!! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

I never look further than 72hrs on the major models. The only model I look at for medium range forecasting is the CPC 500Mb anomaly charts, although it can be wrong I find it quite accurate most of the time. Anyway most of the snow has been washed away from the heavy rain/sleet last night but we still have ice and my 'natural' pond in the back garden is still frozen at around a cm thick.

Totally agree there, some folk should get some sleep instead of being first to post 'downgrade/upgrade'..!!! I'm really getting fed-up with the childish repertoire in there.