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Everything posted by snowbunting
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dont be too downbeat.. The Fergie has just tweated to say they have tweaked the meto model so it is in line with other models. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The models if anything hsve intensified that second Nly outbreak this morning... The Uk is about to go into the freezer. -
Wow... again... this time around charts taking turn to bring some very cold wintry weather our way. Yesterday the GFS today the ECM. The mean ensembles still sticking with a very cold signal. The timing and intensity of the second cold northerly might be the tell tale sign of what happens afterwards. Just keep a thought close to hand, in Dec 2010 the GFS picked up the freezing signals in Fl, then dumped the idea for an omega block high or something along that lines.. well the rest we know is history. I would love to know what our professional weather forecastors are thinking about wintry whispers. Its looking very wintry first half of Jan. Paypack for such a benign autumn and start to winter.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Neither can I seemingly! -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oops typo... on phone big fingers@@ -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A wee thought. When storm Barbara was due to hit our shores. It was the ECM that put it into the storm of doom category. Exceedingly deep low tracking just to the NW of us. The GFS kept it realistic and the path pretty much spot on. Worst winds over Faeroes. Why would these two charts flip flop around in reliability? What if the GFS has found something interesting. It does happen and it is overdue. Surely with a very quiet atlantic, something must surely give. Besides Santa sent the kids sledges, last time he did that was Dec 2010!!! -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Whatever the runs bring us the next few days at least it wont be flooding or atlantic storms. This is rather exciting! -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowbunting replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow... that run from the GFS was pretty jaw dropping. What if the ECM doesnt downgrade? -
Stratosphere temperature watch - 2016/17
snowbunting replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Is this the same kind of rumblings on a different chart? -
January 2017 C.E.T. forecasts
snowbunting replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Can I join in? 3.1C Think first part of Jan we are heading into the freezer! -
Good morning folks. Models are beginning to liven up after an early december slumber. I was looking at the ensemble means for early part of Jan. With a Nly blast just after new year and then what looks a collapse into much colder air 5days later. The position of the high in the atlantic looks crucial but I suspect it will ridge northwards.
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Wow. Woke this morning to a Greenie high, Nly flow and a block to the altlantic in early Jan with both the ECM and GFS agreeing for once at 240hrs. Cold core and wild cards indeed. Im not so good at teleconnections, stratospheric drivers etc but what has changed in the models direction last few days? Away to batten down the hatches in North Lewis. Storm Babs is knocking on our doors.
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Zonality surely not all bad? Prefer it to the anticyclonic gloom. I still think its too marginal to call for the big day. The polar maritime air is knocking at the door on5+days time. More optimistic now than 4days ago! Ive seen zonal pattern before bring alot of wintry weather on a strong positive NAO. Beginning of Jan 1984. These charts arent horrendus by any stretch.
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Starting to see the polar vortex wind up at the end of these GFS runs. Christmas eve looks stormy (still). To be honest, would rather see cold zonality spill down from the NW as that gives us more chance of a NLy outbreak here in Scotland. Alot seems to be depending on that strength and placement of that Russian High, November promising December dampner January might be the joker in the pack looking at the change to zonality.