Southern Storm

I know Gw's post has been removed, but I find funny that we have been told many times by some members from the other side of the debate, thatthe little ice age was local to western Europe, now that a glacier has retreated in Canada, and allowed us to see something green coming out of the ground, all of a sudden we're told that Canada was affected also! make your minds up!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22656239 Here is a news article about plant matter sprouting back to life after god knows how long, buried under great swathes of ice! so its fair to say that there was a lot less ice many years ago, how much less is anyone's guess. very interesting if you ask me!

I noticed a link that hasn't been posted on here,it is about the latest climbdown from the global warming movement, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023 Does anyone else get the impression that the global warming house of cards is about to collapse? I can only imagine that they will point to this in a few years time and say, Look yes we where off, but only a little. I've heard people say so many times on here that the the science is settled, Well it doesn't seem like it to me!

Amazing day here also, cloud was forecast to roll in around 10:30am but have yet to see a cloud After all the cold we have had, today definitely feels like summer!

I've never been a big fan of his, but that video cracks me up big time!

Thanks for all your input you have given this site over the years Gp I was genuinely shocked when I found out you won't be giving us your amazing insight anymore but like everyone else, I am truly happy for you, and wish you a very happy and succesfull Future in your new job. all you need to do now is set up a new user name! Only joking!!! All the best

yes carban is found in lots of places, but dont forget that the sun provided almost allOf the energy needed to process all that carban.This is the problem with these debates, we all end up going around in circals.

Well I know the solar wind has dropped to very low levels in the last few years, and I believe this allows an increase in cosmic rays to interact with our atmosphere, possibly increasing cloud cover. If this is actually happening, who knows how big the effect could be? All I know is that we won't know for sure if we are entering into a LAA for a long time yet, but I agree with crew cold that we are cusp of a global climactic shift in the next few years. I have to say though that my love for weather extreams is really being tested this year and last!

I've been so wrapped up in the hunt for cold in the model thread that today's convection has took me a little by surprise, Wind, hail, and lightning, what more could you ask for

I don't think I have ever seen everyone be so positive on this forum, and that tells me all I need to know. And even though we getting on towards the end of winter, i think we can take heart in the fact that sea surface Temperatures are cooling down nicely now, which will mean less modification over the north sea Personally I will be waiting until Monday before I allow myself to get all excited PS has the nogaps been overhauled yet? Its been performing a lot better recently!

Just going off the post I copied, his prediction looks spot on if you ask me, the way i see it, Gp said that he expected the NWP to latch on to the possible scenario of the Pv dropping around the back of the Svalbard ridge in the 8-12 day range, We are now 9 days on from that post! and we are seeing signs of this being modelled. Maybe I have my wires crossed as its late.

Just thought I would re-post this from GP as it seems to fit in with what is being reflected in some of the models tonight Especially the part in bold, give or take a couple of days! Posted by Glacier Point on 03 February 2013 - 13:22 in Model Forum Archive GEFS mean becoming really quite bullish here. Developing anomalous ridge in the North Atlantic (teleconnected to strongly amplified ridge over Alaska) and increasing tendency for +ve heights across the north eastern quadrant. Model seems to be dropping big hints of another injection of westerly inertia into the Pacific sector with consequent downstream ampification. (remember the GWO options - rinse and repeat phases 5-6-7-8 or head down into phase 1?). We remain under the influence of a cold trough throughout. Out to day 10 and temps below average acoss Europe. GEFS has Switzerland as the core 'low' at 9C below average, but values 2-4C below for the UK. T2 analysis (and cyclonic signal) suggesting little diurnal range - read convective and frontal potential + below average temperatures (do the maths). If the GEFS mean is anything to go by, there will be another easterly attempt within the 15-20 day timeframe (that's in addition to the one now being modelled) and wouldn't be suprised at all if the models suddenly latched onto a piece of pv dropping round the back of the ridge over Svalbard in the 8-12 day timeframes. I think I would like the same crystal ball he's using

Yes its looking increasingly likely that we are gonna enter a milder and more mobile pattern as we go into next week But most of the country is still under snow with more falls possible! Get outside and enjoy it while its still there. But It always makes me laugh when people get hung up with every model run, when you only need to look Back to last week to see how fast things can change at short notice, and so what if it gets warmer, who can 100% say its gonna last the rest of winter? Also somthing i think needs to be said. A few people on this forum are very quick to rubbish Gp's and Chino's ideas (not to mention many other posters on here) and take almost every opportunity to point out when things haven't gone to plan. well next year I hope people who obviously know Better have the courage to put out a long range forecast and spread their wealth of knowledge and forecasting abilities with us all!

I'm in purewell, just a stones throw, tell you what though,When I moved down here from up north everyone said we never get snow down here, yeh right lol

good look with that! No chance of sleep for me, I feel like a little kid on Christmas eve.

just had another look outside and can 100% confirm snow is falling but a lot lighter than beforeI'm feeling a lot more confident now, bring it on!

Hold on tight people the next 15 hours are gonna be awesome, much colder outside now and almost totally snow instead of sleet.

Thanks nick, feeling a little colder here and we have a sleety mix. Not long before it turns to snow.

really? We had about 10cm from that spell, I think Weymouth did miss out though! You could be right but I had stayed up all night watching the snow and continued to hallucinate/see snow all day Quit an experience lol

we can only live in hope!Last time it snowed in 2010 I wanted to play in it so bad, this time round I have my 18 mouth old daughter As an excuse to get out and play if all goes to plan.

I'm 99% certain that snow will fall along the south coast running from Plymouth and areas to the east. But I expect it to turn to sleet for a while before colder air gets dragged back west. I still feel the front will have trouble moving east though, this will come down to now casting if you ask me.

I know :-) I'm quite encouraged by this, but Friday's event is what I have most of my hopes pinned on.

Very light snow here in Christchurch, nothing to shout about but a little unexpected!

yes its a good run and I expect southward trend to continue up until the actual event.Its been said many times before but models always underestimate blocks!

Not to shabby them charts! I will be keeping everything crossed until then.