Southern Storm

great post as always, just a quick question from me, how does this year compare with the mighty year of 1962? Or do we not have enough data from back then? I recalled someone mentioning that there was a Canadian warming that year similar to the one that's happening now if Im not mistaken. I know a few people have been burned this last week with the failed eastery, but some of the best winters never got going until late December early January time, and even though I'm only just starting to get to grips interpreting the models I really feel something special is just around the corner!

Yes, i have just been out for a drive into Christchurch and the roads are very bad!

Just want to raise this point in reference to the 850 temperatures its not very scientific but when looking at the charts for +3 hours yes just 3 hours out and just 6 hours between runs you can see a small but noticeable reduction / upgrade of upper temperatures to our east and if we where to multiply that by the amount of runs left, lets say up to +114.. that's 19 possible reductions in the uppers. Like i said not very scientific just something i have noticed while looking a the last few runs.

Well that's it then, its got to happen now! Lol

Happy as a pig in excrement with this run! What a days model watching it has been. I still won't believe this could happen until I'm snowed in.

Up to +93 and we have another example of the 850s trending colder Compared to the 12z. so good on this run.

I don't think Gibby is posting his usual update tonight but I could be wrong, If so what a night to take off. Has anyone got model fatigue yet? If we get a backtrack now I think I would call it a day lol

it would be the mother of all undercuts though.

Don't worry about this, I find the models always underestimate the 850 temps, if and when the easterly arrives it will be cold enough especially now we are only a couple of weeks away from other shortest day.

yes I would agree with this, and look at them cold uppers way out east! Come to daddyLike you said though a lot can change but eventually that cold is gonna work its way west. Edit .... that was before the Pv spawned that low north of scandi.

Upper temps are better on this run and the orientation oh the Scandinavian high looks nicer to my untrained eye.

Looks very fast to me but this is becoming a trend to see the GH pulled west at an earlier timeframe allowing the low to slip south east, Just need this to be repeated by the 12z and most importantly backed up by the ukmo.

Yes I'm driving to just north of Dijon on the 23rd to stay with the parents in law, and using the tunnel for the first time which makes me a little nervous after what happened in 2010. Judging by what Gp posted in the strat thread and all of the other signals its looks like being a notable cold spell But nobody will be able to pinpoint any detail until much closer the time Take this morning for example, some flights canceled and problems on the motorways. I like cold weather but if it cost me Christmas in France I'd be gutted. But as the saying goes .... What ever will be will be!

many thanksAnd congratulations on 10'000 top class posts!

Hi Nick. What time can we expect the update? V and would you be kind enough to post the link? Very important one for the mood on here. Thanks

yes its very nice to see the easterly has plenty of support but until the ukmo agrees I won't be counting any chicken's!

I too would like to echo those sentiments posted by john, it is a pleasure reading your posts and I thank you for taking the time to explain things in a way that even a noob can understand, I have gained so much knowledge from you an other posters on here. Also I don't know if I'm right in saying this but I read that you don't do any of this for a living, if that's the case I tip my hat to you.

I would love to read some posts from that time or even better pin the whole topic to all model threads as a cautionary tale.

Out to +168 is enough for me, are we gonna get the undercut? Still learning so I have no idea But if I had to put my neck on the line I would say yes

That low is sinking faster than the titanic Very nice as Boris Johnson would say!

Sorry on tablet so unable to post charts but one thing I have notice is that the 850 temperatures out to the east are often underestimated By the models, even as early as +12 you can see this, hence the met having a hard time atm.

Thanks Ian And in this post is a lesson to everyone, the models are having problems within the next 48 hours let alone a week away! We could have some very seasonal weather on our doorstep but are we too focused on fi ? Good times.

OK and nice to know that have that all important human input! But as others have said, we can't put all our eggs in one basket. having said that, if people paid more attention To this type of output we'd have lot less moaning on here! Many thanks TM24

Sorry to ask this but how are the charts you posted produced? Are they computer generated or drawn like FAX charts?

The jet appears to be a lot stronger on this run, does anybody know how this would affect us in the long run?