Southern Storm

Rain Rain and more Rain here in Christchurch, hope things improve for our region later this week!

Yes its not totally out of the question. I also thought I would have a look at some of the most famous winters of time gone by and stumbled across these charts for 1947 the first one is for the 2nd of feb HGT500 http://www.wetterzen...00119470202.gif T850 http://www.wetterzen...00219470202.gif Then 5 days later we have this HGT500 http://www.wetterzen...00119470207.gif T850 http://www.wetterzen...00219470207.gif Now I don't think its likely to happen but the first chart I posted looked a lot like some of the chats for Friday. just a bit of fun but you never know it could be you!

I think people are just commenting on the trend more than anything, it would only take A correction south and for the Scandinavian high to be more of a player for things to get very interesting. I still firmly believe that as we approach the time frame in question, the models will start taking into account The stratospheric warming, as I think they will be underestimating heights . Time will tell!

we can only keep our fingers crossed and a few other things.

They are not bad at all! at day 5 the mean is around -7 and the cluster is tightly grouped compared to of late.

Yes but its only for the next 24 hoursI would guess that they will update warnings for the rest of the country later tonight after having more data. And to be honest, there is no point taking any notice of warnings until much closer the time especially when it comes to snow.

Yes I'm thinking along the same lines, and expect this uncertain outlook to continue for at least another 3 days, by which time the effects of the stratospheric down-welling will be modelled much better and I wouldn't be surprised to see very decant near-time upgrades as we approach the 15th and 16th of this month.

welcome to the forum, yes I kind of agree with you about the chopping and changing, but as nick says It a little worrying that the Ecm diverges not that far out. All this is so fascinating but as always more runs needed!

looks like its had a complete meltdown, if my memory serves me correctly it did this quite oftenBack in 2010 but its only rolled out when a cold spell is just around the corner, But we all know what happened back then, maybe a good sign.

Yes nick just seen this and he seemed confident about cold lasting into next week, Also the new model you posted from the us, is it a high resolution model?

Moving away from gfs mania for a second, did anyone watch stargazing live tonight? The reason I ask this is because they performed a demonstration with a charged rod and some water And I was amazed to find how much effect charged particles have on diverting the flow of water This got me thinking, the atmosphere is composed mostly of water vapour, so would it be possible to Modle earth bound coronal mass ejections and the possible diversion of large scale weather systems? Sorry if this is not the place to post this, so please move if needed.

fantastic update Mr F, but the only thing I don't fully agree with is in regard to wide spread snowThe gfs if right, has led the way with this setup so we shouldn't discount it all together. PS where is west is best these days? I hope he finds the time to come on here sometime as he was Quite knowledgeable if I'm not mistaken.

Yes I'm starting to think along the same lines, it very bizarre that we have cross model agreement Going forward but the gfs ensembles don't want to know, which I can only put down to the lower resolution. Having said that, we have had every model under the sun rolled out this evening bringing in the cold long term and I assume the they are run a higher resolution than gfs ens, so if we stack them all together We have ourselves a nice set of high resolution ensembles if you catch my drift. But as always more runs needed!

Let's not over react people, I don't think he's saying it won't happen. we all know that the models will Struggle with the amount and placement of any precipitation, so don't worry just yet!

Fully agree with you, as Steve m and nick s have said, the crucial time frame is relatively close. Finger's crossed.

It would be nice to see how that compares to a standard weather pattern for our neck of the woods at +96, As I get the feeling that the chat you posted is not that bad. PS I wouldn't post to many net weather extra charts, but nice to know what you can get with extra subscription.

Lol just look how many people are logged on, that tels you all you need to know! And if we get the ECM onboard then we will probably break the record for most users online at once! Also the gfs fits with GPs thoughts with regard to most of the vortex heading to Siberia With a large pacific ridge! Just need the ecm onboard!

I think they are a good tool most of the time, but you only have to look back to the last Let down to see that they can get it very wrong. Let's hope we get lucky this time!

Finaly found it but I Don't think there's a way to copy the original post so here's a link. Paul explains thing nicely.

I remeber someone posted a chat from the last failed cold spell that showed a visual representation Of when models struggle to pinpoint a particular feature. For example, we are always questioning the positions of short waves coming out of north america, And the chart I'm thinking of is like an anomaly map that shows where the most uncertainty is and the Possible downstream knock on effects. Could someone put me out of my misery and tell me the name of this chat? As I think it would be a very useful tool in these uncertain times, now possibly a little Less uncertain after Ian's post. Edit here it is

OK thanks for that. Always learning something new on this site!

Snap!

Sorry to ask this but could you explain this please, as I haven't got a clue what it means lol Hope you don't mind.

Thanks for the insight, I still won't be counting any chickens just yet but You will have made a few people very happy with that post!

OK thanks for that, fingers crossed that we do get a SSW as i believe there will be a lot More focus on the next one and all the new data it will bring.