cyclonic happiness
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Posts posted by cyclonic happiness
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2 hours ago, Day 10 said:
Thanks for ruining my day, what a horrible trend.
two words...... 'energy bills'. At least there is that bonus?
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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
How often do you read this? If you follow it regularly you will know that 2 weeks ago it was describing below average temps and widespread snow and ice for this week. In fact on Wednesday they were talking about snow for central areas on Christmas Day… truth is they are not very accurate and haven’t ‘called it right’ very often so far this winter and they could flip to cold and snow again any day
Where is this strong polar vortex? it looks raggedy and it avoiding Greenland like there's no tomorrow. The whole of the runs for the next 12 days look unusual and interesting. I think we will hit the jackpot for cold later next month. Nothing is normal
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1 hour ago, KTtom said:
Yes, hopefully lessons learnt will be don't go over the top in future and respect views from others which don't necesserily mirror yours! Talking of digging in, surely with pretty much unanimous charts like this for the turn of the year the Met will have to adjust their longer term forecast, if they don't, then they must be seeing something we don't have access to?!
If they do have charts we don't have access too, it makes you wonder why we bother at all? If we can't get hold of model data which is fairy accurate, we will always be lead up the garden path and by no fault of our own, regardless of what some people say. We don't just make up that the models are showing a cold and snowy spell, we are shown it by the data.
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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
It is a little surprising that Exeter haven't amended their forecast. They are extremely cautious though which is understandable. However, it sometimes makes them appear to be 24 hours behind the curve.
or 24 hours in front of the curve? I'm sure something will flip back to cold before long
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We have lost Christmas, but have one sprig of hope in the Met Office extended outlook for January, which is going for colder than average weather, with wintery hazards and also mentions south easterly winds.
If we don't get anything, we may as well officially move the months around as March is now a Winter month and November is now a Winter month too.
Beggars belief we can get 3" of snow in November, but not December. It always seems mild in December nowadays
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
NCEP discussion saying there’s a large degree of uncertainty over the eastern USA for this weekend . This impacts the troughing in the Atlantic to the west of the UK so before the backslapping and I told you so comments become even more irritating can those doing this just muzzle it to this evening !
When you get a sudden shift it’s best to wait for another run to ensure the models haven’t over reacted .
Yep, FI is at 24hrs out atm. There is no super mild weather suggested in the Meto update either, so something has gone a bit squiffy.
I'll sit on the fence until maybe the 12z tomorrow and then just get drunk until new year
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3 hours ago, MattStoke said:
Models all flip to milder at the 11th hour. Ah for fudge sake!
This is just as bad as that legendary failed easterly from 2005, only you'd think with the advancements of technology and software, they'd be 'better' at forecasting things, but they seem a lot worse than they were back when I started netweather in 2004, it's getting stupid now.
And what of the Met office hinting at colder weather after Christmas, but nothing showing up in any of the models, only Spanish winter plumes.
Something has got to give
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This is getting a bit silly now. I mean. you expect FI to flop around like a fish out of water, but it doesn't do U-turns nearer into the 'reliable' like it is at the minute??
So, where are we all thinking FI is now....24hrs? I can't get my head a round the total s**tshow the models are recently, could it be they have less staff due to covid..or working from home or something. This situation is not normal, and I've been watching the models for 18 years now
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Can’t say I recall that? I try to be more level headed these days than when I first joined these forums years ago. Too many model flips and sagas over the years
I agree with you. I have an almost masochistic desire for it to all go pear shaped at the last minute, just so I can tell myself "I told you so....seee! it's all gone wrong again!"
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Well, at least the States are almost entirely covered in warm anomalies, and we all know that very cold weather in the States causes raging zonality over this side of the pond, so that's a good side going forward.
We may just lose out on Christmas day, but thereafter I think a good cold spell is still in the offing
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Just now, tight isobar said:
Now we know this run won't come off. those hurricane-like storms are even more rare than cold spells in the southern UK.
I'll hang my hat up on Wednesday morning, but not until. Plenty of time for change, and as we've all seen, there's been a LOT of change in the outputs run to run
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The only thing which worries me about the whole thing, is the total lack of anything beasterly showing up on the long range Meto forecasts.
I know they are afraid of getting it wrong and therefore tend to only say it's going to snow around an hour beforehand, but all they've said it that it will be 'a bit below average' nothing about easterly elements?
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I'd imagine the surface temperatures would be very cold under that bloomin' great high, regardless of the uppers.
Who knows even an inversion and sub zero day, with freezing fog rime frost.....it would be amazing!!
People need to stop worrying about over 10+ days time, and just look forward to what we are about to get too
Mind you, what's the bet it'll just be anticyclonic gloom lol?
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Just goes to show that all the wrist slitting in the MOD thread is just blinkered as to what might actually happen
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awoke to a nice dusting of snow again this morning..... beautiful!
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Minus 4.4'c last night here. Would have been more due to the lying snow, but the cloud never broke, so it stayed 'milder'.
Looking forward to going hollying in the snow to make holly wreaths for work today
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Heavy snow here still, must be around 2" so far
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Knocking on for an inch here now
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Heavy snow in Bedworth, settling on all surfaces
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It looks great for the next few days folks, we don't really need to worry about that.
as for next month, it looks a bit more zonal, but we aren't even in winter yet and are about to get the best weather action in months.
chins up!
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This is probably the usual 'pre cold spell wobble' we're all used to. i'll wait until wednesday next week before writing anything off. fingers crossed all!
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27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
Nothing to see here, just rather ordinary, average, unsettled westerly but maybe on the drier side of average for the first half of November
can it really be an unsettled but drier than average?
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Big eruption at Mount Etna right now!! :-0
Etna volcano (Italy): violent eruptive episode, parts of SE crater collapse into dangerous pyroclastic flows
WWW.VOLCANODISCOVERY.COMNews and eruption updates about Etna volcano, Italy
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Looking more promising this morning.
More cold in the runs from the GFS and ECM and meto, I've noticed in the past that protracted spells of gloomy nothingness are followed by good cold spells, the sun has not shone here for at least a week....good sign!