Cymro

I have a really strong suggestion for everyone, come back on Sunday and revaluate what's happening going forward, clinging from run to run does nothing for the sanity levels, it will be narnia and Snowmageddon in 4 hours time and chop and change until the shortwaves debacle between the two strongest regimes i/e the Russian High and Atlantic Blocking anchor down and sort out. We have a saying in Welsh 'ara deg a phob yn dipyn' which translated as 'slowly, slowly, each and every little bit' I think that's what's in store for the next few days until things settle and are resolved. It has been quite frustrating here in western Wales with the sea surface temperatures of the Irish sea hampering our chances in terms of snowfall, but as each day passes the sst's lower and become more favourable, I suspect that's what will happen in the North sea as well.

0.4 and 97mm

That's a huge Shame Steve, we have posters in the forum from Glyn Ceiriog, North East Powys and Wrexham area also Mold. I actually think it's a fair reflection of Wales. It's only as representative as those who post there really. I'm sure the Weather in Mold is far more relevant to you than say Manchester.

Very interesting how about the rest of the UK any observations on likely impacts for Wales, Northern England, Scotland and Ireland?

I would rather high pressure came in now to be honest for a few days to really cool us down and allow sharp harsh frosts, get those sea surface temperatures down as well. I'm sure they will have dropped a degree or two following this 'Coldish' spell but if we can shave another degree or two off, we would be looking at better chances. Easterly doesn't excite me one bit and if you live anywhere to the west of Snowdonia, Cambrian Mountains or the Brecon Beacons don't get your hopes up unless we have a breakdown situation where LP comes up against the cold air. (excluding the Gower and Pembrokeshire as easterlies can do ok here with sea around you rather then mountains, but breakdowns not so much). I think I am going to come back and see how things look Sunday/Monday as this weather is rather frustrating.

Icy out there this morning. Definitely is getting colder now! It’s weird as the temps here haven’t passed 4 degrees since Sunday Morning but the showers have kept low minima at bay, not this morning though, hopefully things will improve from now on.

Lovely, beautiful, heavy...Sleet for the third night in a row...ahhh! Sigh!

RHYBUDD / WARNING Cadwch bant o'r 'Model Thread' Keep away from the 'Model Thread' Mae'n llwm iawn yno ar hyn o bryd! It's very bleak in there at the moment!

I stand corrected still does nothing for the Swansea Bay Snow Dessert.

I don't disagree with you regarding the uppers debate and how lucky some of our friends over the border have been. I have seen many a low pressure system with -1 uppers dump 8inches + in Wales. I do take issue with the 'harmonie' though as to me, it always substantially over eggs how much snow we get and only causes disappointment. Also note, we are relying on a showery stream of precipitation in Wales rather than strong organised bands, which sadly doesn't cut it in terms of snow as the dewpoints rise with the modification from the sea. -7 uppers may be all it takes to change this from tomorrow night onwards, but annoyingly, when the uppers finally are more supportive for convective snow showers of the Irish sea, as if by magic the convection abates

The harmonie hasn't been great for us though has it Andy, always over estimating snowfall and raising hopes, if Wales receives anything as widespread as indicated there on Thursday I will pledge allegiance to the Queen (and there's a fat chance of that happening :P)

My motto for tomorrow is simply, expect very little if nothing and then if the band does develop more to the north of the low, a nice surprise - helps avoid disappointment.

P.s Am I one of the only members who actually doesn't look forward one bit to easterlies? We didn't even manage a covering with the Beast from the East, the beacons sucked it all up. Was one of the most difficult weather moments to watch to date.

Out of curiosity Andy how high above sea level are we in this photo? 450m? One annoying feature of this cold spell to date is the missed opportunities of precipitation being rain rather than snow, but because of this as well, temperatures are struggling to fall back at night, like they did Christmas morning. I would rather a week of frosts to start down to a good -4/-5 of an evening then marginality would become far less of an issue.

Certainly agree, this week the warm sea surface temperatures have really proven a bitter pill to swallow across not only lowland Wales. This kind of setup with colder sea temps could have seen many areas buried. Take last night for example we are not far off 200m above sea level here, the hills around us are between 250 - 520m and yet there is no snow cover. Temps of around 2 degrees and a matching dewpoint, has meant we have had continuous sleet. The streamer last night had we have been a degree or two colder or, had better upper air temps + dewpoints would have dumped cm's of the white stuff across a huge swathe of Western Wales. Tomorrow, sadly will be a blink and you will miss it affair away from perhaps the Vale of Glamorgan inland or higher hills of Monmouth - unless a stark correction northwards (highly unlikely in this kind of setup) happens. Not to sound all doom and gloom but with this prolonged period of below average temperatures (At least) things can, and certainly will only get colder as the days progress, if we can sneak snowcover from an LP that helps us create a homegrown cold pool, we could be on the money...not so much yet though.

Warning revised substantially south, we are just out of it here by a bout a mile but I suspect it will miss Wales all together at this rate!

If ever there was a more perfectly Pembs Danglerr for us, tonight is the night. It’s a shame the dewpoint is too high. We have had 7mm of sleet so far, would have left a lovely covering.

Its great to see this thread so lively! and a ‘Hot topic’ as well

I am liking that double dangler! Dere draw mwy at y Dwyrain! Dewpoints far better from now on as well!

Edrych yn hyfryd looks lovely!

Very disapointing really, my predictions were way out!

Although Marginal, we in Wales couldn't have hoped for better timing really for the precipitation from the low to hit us over night, sometimes that's all that it can take between rain and snow

I can confirm that the showers moving over West to East at the moment are certainly wintry, sleet at the moment but a lot of Wet Snowflakes mixed in so early as well, before the wind veers NWSTly and more organised precipitation later. I have a strong feeling about snow in Wales overnight/tomorrow. Moving from there, looks like things will get colder and colder as the week progresses as well

Going to properly go all IMBY now But i WOULD MUCH RATHER A NWSTLY over an easterly any day! The fohn affect here on the Western Side of the Beacons means we have little snow. Beast from the East was case in point for the whole Swansea Bay area. Give me northerlies and north westerlies every day of the week over an easterly!

From the mod thread, look at that line of showers following the main LP tomorrow, it’s these conditions that can be real snow makers for Wales in a NWly flow. Perhaps a touch marginal on the coast and below 100m but above that, tomorrow could be an exciting day and more to come Tuesday and Wednesday with marginality gradually becoming a less of an issue in the slacker flow . It’s no Snowmaggedon, but a tidy covering possible (5cm> ) almost anywhere in Wales. 85EED43B-CD39-4C63-8447-245921646E9F.webp