Cymro

That’s pure Imbysm!

I am going to be harpooned and ridiculed for this comment but it seems to me that it is the same repeat posters who create havoc in here and post such dross at times, could there not be a point system whereby people are restricted from posting knee jerk reactions and throwing toys out of prams when they continuously derail this thread? I know my comment by default is doing that now and I apologise but I don't know where else to direct my comment. This for me has been the worst winter I have witnessed so far on this wonderful forum for IMBYsm of a particular area of the UK in this thread as well as nasty snipping and sniggering. How much more of this does it take for this thread to be no longer feasible? It is being ruined in front of our eyes and it’s a huge shame!

How can you state northwesterly winds as a downgrade?

Has anyone got a small pin to push into the back of our 'Winter hopes' router and press reset? Model volatility is huge and post 120 hours very uncertain, I think for many of our own sanities we'd be best freezing this forum until Monday, let's see what we have to contend with then, all this bickering and downbeat sniggering, does nobody any good.

That’s not strictly true Tim, large parts of Northern and Western Wales were snowcovered last week for 5 days+. I think the pending ssw affects have raised our expectations a little too high.

I have been a member of these forums since 2006 and not once can I recall such a prolonged and fascinating period of model watching. Truly fantastic! Every year there are new buzzwords, concerns and themes that absorb strongly into the discussion. This year I think all fingers can firmly be pointed at the words ‘West based Negative NAO’ Never has a phrase been so prominent! I think the concerns of a west based negative NAO will be reassured over the coming days! Bon voyage!

Is this strictly true? I have seen the UKMO flip within T48 our climate is so finely balanced here in the UK small changes make for massive differences in surface conditions.

This cold spell will go down as a prolonged period of below average temperatures where the ground froze solid (Still defrosting as we speak) and I had a solid ice sheet on our large garden wildlife pond for 16 days in total (Still slowly melting, I suspect it will be gone in the morning, temp is up to 8 degrees now). We have had 7 days of falling snow, 3 dustings and one moderate covering (more than 2cm) Not noteworthy for it's snow or minima here (Although we did squeeze a -7.8 which is pretty low without snow cover, but generally minima were around -4 to -1. It's the maxima that was noteworthy here, not once between the 27th and the 09th did the temperature breach 4 degrees, most days around 1.5/2 degrees max. We also had 4 ice days. Despite a lot of drama surrounding this spell, I am positively chuffed with how it panned out, just for the length of below average temperatures.

Correction actually November 2006 oh good god!

I must confess this is one of the most bizzare and long winded weather model watches I have witnessed on this forum and I've been here since 2008!

My understanding was that La Niña was projected to go into a weak rather than strong state so took from that that it's influence would gradually weaken???

More than likely the topography of Wales sucking all energy out of the front and pressure high to the south west.

That's not strictly true of the Met Office to be fair they haven't made much of this snow at all in forecast and the warning for most of Wales away from high ground was for ice, so I think the metoffice were pretty close to the mark. Agree with the BBC still indicating snow moving south. It's currently snizzling here but nothing more than that.

I think today is case in point that the 'Harmonie Snow Predictions' for Wales are at best Cachu Tarw! We woke up to a dusting and have had some light flurries, but if you would believe the harmonie, we were actually least favoured in West Wales to have anything, yet it looks to me that West Wales did far better than most of South Wales for precipitation. The harmonie model has burnt my hopes far too many times for me to even consider taking it seriously any more. Ymlaen at Narnia Wythnos nesaf - falch o weld y Gogledd yn cael tipyn o eira cofiwch!

Wow surly a -18/-19 could be in order tonight then?

We have a dusting and plenty more to come love it!

Perhaps someone with deeper knowledge than myself can contribute here but correct me if I'm wrong, but December 2010 saw large snowstorms or North Easters in the USA at the same time as our record breaking cold weather. It is therefor incorrect to state that we are in the Cooker when the USA goes into the freezer. Likewise the USA is a large landmass and the British Isles are not so you could have frigid cold weather in the North Eastern States and mild in the central and western states. It's true that a cold USA can fire up the Jetstream keeping us milder than average, but it can also be, as is often the case here, due to strong northern blocking and heights in Greenland. So you can't simply state that American Cold = Western European Warmth.

Was it really though? It showed snow right down to the South Wales coast if my memory serves me well and sadly that didn't materialise. We have had snow here quite a few times now, and some flurries today to which was a nice surprise. But I really don't rate the harmonie one bit it only builds up hopes and leaves disappointment. I find EURO ti be very good.

I don't mean to burst anybody's snow bubble, but time and time again these harmonie outputs have proven incorrect and over generous in terms of snow distribution. As always, don't expect much, everything is a bonus then!

Western England and Wales perhaps or has the SSW removed us from the British Isles?

It's certainly cold enough now, so I would expect a dusting of snow quite widely personally, ice will definitely be a hazzard. Ice day here today

Isn't it just typical though that we manage to only be around average to slighly below in the Western part of the uk. It wouldn't take much for that to change for the better mind.

Had another dusting here this morning with some moderate snow. Temp increased around 10:45ish currently back tonsleet now unfortunately. But a nice surprise nonetheless. More organised heavy precipitation overnight would almost certainly give us a few centimeters now. There’s enough surface cold about now to tip things the right side of marginal for us. Garden pond and ditches here have remained frozen solid since last Sunday

Lovely morning here cold and crisp, dusting of snow and moderate to light snow showers on and off since about 1am last night. This is what lower uppers does and a slightly cooler Irish sea. Has anyone got the charts that show sea surface temperatures? Guaranteed they have dropped since Sunday.

Well at last I can report we have frozen snowfkakes on cars here and more showers on the way, so much for see you on Sunday colder air making the difference tonight here but we are on high ground.