Cymro

That’s a sure sign this cold is entrenched when the tropical metropolis of Bae Abertawe nearly squeezes an ice day!

After getting down to -9.5 last night and a high of -2.3 the temperature is back on the way down again. This is the lowest over night min I’ve ever recorded without snow-cover! I hate to think how cold it would have been had Wales experienced more widespread deep snow-cover before today! I think the cold is going to dig in further between now and Friday and wouldn’t at all be surprised we see a snow to rain event on the weekend that might even stay as snow with a bit of luck before a shorter less cold blip and back down again middle of next week. Even with the lack of snow so far, what a great start to winter!

There are two things that strike me with the inevitable relaxation of this cold spell. 1) talk of mild is fraught with subjectivity because generally less cold seems to be the form horse (away from Scotland) rather than extensively mild conditions. 2) It could become generally mild temporarily, it could stay rather cold (stroke of luck) but looking at the bigger picture across the NH, HLB is especially prevalent and as such we are absolutely primed for further cold weather into the new year.

Snizzle at best that would probably evaporate before reaching us anyway.

If the GFs is correct regarding Tues/Wednesday snow I’ll eat my hat! Nonchance tgat front will reach here IMO

With this s being on it's own from the gfs, unfortunately I think we can safely say it's one for the bin!

Can we all just sit back and appreciate Nick's continously insightful commentary on the models? I must say I absolutely enjoy reading your summary on what's needed rather than what's shown it's invaluable when trying to learn how to read the charts. Thanks Nick

Eira mân fan hyn, siwgr eisin dros bopeth Light snow here with a sugar coating an all surfaces

Mae mor yr Iwerydd yn tanio a’r cawodydd yn cynyddu! The Irish sea is working it’s magic as recent radar shows and latest MO fax shows a trough veering across Wales that should help the showers reach further inland from coastal area

A lot are saying we're only 2 days into the cold spell but personally I'd say we're almost a week into below average temperatures with it turning distinctly colder from Wednesday so it's a pretty lengthy spell. I agree though, patience is a virtue and distribution of disturbances will chop and change during this next week with many seeing snow at some point. Lluniau hyfryd o Eryri (lovely pics of Eryri in North Wales)

Waw oer!! Generally when placing thermometer we should place them above the ground/surface for an actual air temp reading! But even then it's probably still between - 5 and - 8 brrrrrrrr

-7 here this morning. Balmy weather

So far so good with my 1.4 I think we may just do it

This is all very subjective of course because to the Western side of the UK we need North Westerlies for convection, easterlies rarely deliver here.

Hahaha!!! If it didn't fall in the South of England it didn't happen mind!

Yn hollol! We need the winds to veer slightly more W/NW as they are progged to do later today and overnight it will also be less marginal with the sub 528 dam covering all of Wales from this afternoon (this is key for snow below 100m in this setup)

Snow flurries here on and off since I got up at 6. More shower activity to the Irish sea and the NW which may bring more continuous snow showers later

You’ve got the Carneddau, Cambrians and Beacons to munch all that up mind

Low here of -4.1 and a max of 2.4 back down below freezing now brrr

I'm in West Wales, Eastern Carmarthenshire about 5 miles west of the Brecon Beacons,

Based on the ECM alone? Sit tight, this low will absolutely correct south 100%

This is good news and involves the old adage that when you get the cold in first precipitation often follows. How’s god’s country also known as Wales looking on the fine mesh snow predictions?

Gobeithio’n wir daw eira i greu blanced i warchod byd natur rhag y rhew caled sydd ar y ffordd. I really hope we see a covering of snow to help insulate nature from the worst of the sharp frosts!

To my untrained eye a deviation between -1 and +1 of the norm is average?

Snow makers and block reinvigoraters coming to a cinema near you