Cymro

Looking forward to dry days!

I would probably get a life ban and a prison sentence for snow treason or stealing their ice days

12z Oh look it’s a beast, Gonna hit the south east, It’s a stonker, quite a feast If it hits the South east! 18z Ok look a Kent clipper It will be brutal, a real stonker Oh hey, a Thames streamer, Get the army in, fetch the digger! 00z Oh no, it’s Pete Tong The Models must be wrong But winter is over, If it doesn’t snow in Dover 06z Meanwhile in Wales, the land of only sheep The snowdrifts pile up, nearly 20ft deep! The Scots have froze solid and the Irish start skiing, But winter is still over, for Kent only had a dusting! 12z Its never ‘nailed on’ or ‘snowmaggedon’ for long If it doesn’t snow IMBY, then the models must be wrong. You can call it a sausage, and talk about your wedge! But please when it does come, bugger off out on your sledge!

It will be a notable cold spell no doubt. Would be great if we could sneak snow cover here out West before it get’s going because there isn’t much more frustrating here than a fortnight of snow cover sustaining temperatures but absolutely bone dry. Sorry for the imbyism but the white persistent lack of precipitation Swansea Westwards illustrades why Easterlies do nothing for my excitement. Get a good Nwstly for a day or two before and I will crack open the champagne and join in the party. For context, yesterday produced more snow here than the famous Beast.

0.4, 73mm

Harmonie did good today fairplay...for all my harmonie bashing itks performed well this weekend. If only it were a tad colder we would be looking at 4/5inches just like last weekend. Still snowing moderate to heavy here and a covering on most surfaces bar roads and pavements

Constant moderate to heavy snow here, sticking readily ond most surfaces bar road and some hard surfaces, dew points a bit too high I expect but more snow than I expected. Could be with us for a while yet as well

evaporation of the precipitation because of the dry easterly wind drifting of the high mountains of Eryri.

Bwrw eira ysgafn fan hyn Light snow here

The harmonie is a poor model as far as I am concerned! Completely wrong with last week's event. Also this is a different set up to last week. Last week was a shortwave dropping South, this is an LP moving in from the West with winds SE veering E/Ne! That's the key, no offshore winds. Expect a lot of snow across most of Wales. Seen this kind of setup all too many times before. Warning matrix will increase tomorrow and be extended south.

I’m expecting a repeat performance of last week here but on Saturday and with wind included = drifts Then more sunday ??????? Don’t worry it will correct south!

Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. Let’s see if a warning is issued later!

Are you reading the same thread as me this morning? This is one of the most positive mornings witnessed on the model thread following the 00z. But the easterly does look relatively dry at this stage (will chop certainly change)

A word of caution guys, don’t stay glued to the automated forecasts, more UTurns than a Tory government! Interestingly I have noticed nearly all models/snow accumulation forecasts show no snow for pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire on a regular basis but are nearly always wrong. The only time they proved correct, broadly speaking was the Beast From the East. They often show snow in coastal Ceredigion and Gwynedd for example which doesn’t materialise yet last weekend I think roughly speaking we had deeper snow here than most of South Wales (12cm) but the forecast all showed a lack of snow. Likewise North pembs as well, they did really well! How refined are these models to local topography for example?

Not covering Wales are they?

-8.7 here absolutely wonderful What's the chances the front tomorrow doesn't make inroads and produces snow for Wales? Cold air is pretty entrenched?? Today has gone from being 5/6 degrees to 1/2 degrees widely. Tomorrow from being 7/8 to being 3/4. The mild spell is at best close to seasonal norm mid week.

Snowing heavy here and the showers are very slow moving as well. Already topped up 1cm on existing snowcover!

Measured 12cm on the grass and 10cm on hard surfaces. Really pleased Currently snowing again now although more of the wet kind.

I told you it would snow 20210124_041937.mp4 20210124_041921.mp4

We have about 4cm here already and coming down thick and fast

We weren’t spoilt here, the Beast from the east was the biggest let down that I have witnessed on this forum IMBY of course. This event now will produce more snow here than the beast did. ( Again IMBY) But I am confident although the track may seem further NE it isn’t that far out, cold, dense air over Wales compared to ROI will slow it right down. I said earlier that I don’t expect it to make much inroads past Wales’ border, and I still stand by that! It’s currently -4.9 here after a minimum of -5.8 it’s definitely going to snow folks, absolutely no doubt at all!

Stop the nerves people, it’s definitely on

Join in the snow chant folks, It's going to 'BWRW EIRA' no doubt

Quite simply put, most models show a vast swathe of Wales having accumulating snow overnight into tomorrow morning. When was the last time that we could honestly say that? I am still not convinced that the front will move as quickly as it currently is, it will certainly slow down, and hopefully pep up over the Irish sea as well. I am confident most of us will wake up to a few centimetres tomorrow, no it's not deep and crisp and even, but it's neither a dusting, it's a covering over the majority of Wales' landmass, which is great. North East Wales has done great today with showers, could do well tomorrow as well. THe only place to me that seems sure of missing a good covering is Ynys Môn, but showers could change that as well. Let's enjoy the ride, expect surprises tomorrow. I am surprised how we have managed to retain our dusting today in most places. I.e we had at best 0.5cm last night, and it hasn't thawed in a lot of areas, temperatures much colder than forecast as well, and before the front arrives this evening, some places are looking at -4/-5. It's going to 'BWRW EIRA' folks mark my words

It has been very cold today, and our dusting is surviving in the shade, and considering it wasn't much I am quite impressed, all standing water in fields and pond iced over, shows what can happen when the ground has cooled over a long period of time. I think settling snow won't be a problem for anywhere above about 100m tomorrow. 2"- 4" Valleys, Carmarthenshire inland and North Pembrokeshire. 1" perhaps immediate coasts Llanelli, Swansea, South Pembrokeshire, Barry, Cardiff, Port Talbot. The best thing is the temperature will be even colder than today so most lying snow should last comfortably throughout Sunday and most of Monday as well, after that a thaw but more to come in February hopefully Also, North Wales has had quite a lot of snow from showers today. I'm sure NE Wales has done best so far this winter for snow. I also expect showers to follow the main band as well, topping up accumulations across Wales. I don't think the front will make it much passed the Welsh border to be honest and just fizzle out.