Cymro

I'm sorry I really don't see your rationale here. I don't watch the weather's developments to feel anything? It's quite evident since the beginning of this winter that Kasim has been more than downbeat in his posts regarding winter weather prospects. Much analysis is brilliant I don't doubt that but this is a forum for the whole of the UK and it is incorrect to refer to Scandinavia in his commentary earlier when Scotland tomorrow and Sunday will see heavy snowfall and any PM NWly as modelled in the 6/7 day range will likely bring snow to Wales, Northern England, Scotland and Ireland and at times other areas of England. If you set your bar so high (even with being 450m abs) you will never be satisfied and I think at times a little perspective and context of the UK's position in the Northern Hemisphere wouldn't go a miss for most of us.

Oh Kasim can you not refrain from sucking any positivity away from each run?

That’s a difficult question to answer. Northerlies are the best for widespread sunshine in Winter. Easterlies cloudy for Eastern Wales, Scotland and England yet sunny to the lee of mountain ranges in the West. Westerlies tend to bring cloud to the West of high ground. SW winds depend on where the jet is tracking, if deep south can be clear but mostly cloudy and SE / Southerly winds can bring sunshine especially in summer but in winter tend to be very dull due to a cool continental element to the flow. So that’s about as clear as the sky today

I’d sooner a NWtly toppler than a boring, dry easterly at this point in time! -6 uppers is fine if we can find an elongated lp system moving from NW to SE which can give us widespread heavy snow!

4.9 and 100mm

Great Post but I always despair at how often Wales is overlooked . How can you mention Ireland and Western England and forget the country between both that has heaps of altitude and some of the wettest weather in these kind of situations?

Here's an interesting contribution from James Peacock

Monday 26 Dec - Wednesday 4 Jan Frequent wintry showers affecting northern areas on Monday, these becoming confined to the Northern Isles, where very windy too. Elsewhere, some sunshine, but an area of cloud and rain, with a small chance of snow on its northern edge may return from the south for a time. For the following few days, probably a fairly windy and changeable period of weather, with rain, and some snow at times, interspersed with colder, brighter spells. Around the turn of the year, uncertainties in the forecast increase, but a ridge of high pressure may bring a quieter interlude for many with more widely colder conditions, overnight frost and crisp, sunny days. Some wintry showers are also possible, especially in coastal areas. Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 21 Dec 2022 Nothing conclusive here and that's not surprising given the complexity of the forecast.

I would never pin much hope on the mid/long range forecast from the Metoffice. Its notorious for being very vague, fence sitting and about as useful as a soggy custard cream at the bottom of a cup of tea

In a very interesting way

T'was 4 days before Christmas and all through this thread Were complaints of zonality and pure winter dread. The ensembles were flapping, flopping and flipping With hopes of corrections and northerlies encroaching The thickness and dew points echoed potential While visions of sugar-coated dustings became somewhat fanatical And the Met with their updates and us with our charts Soon realised and accepted that sooner we'd start To open our windows at a Dickens delight And realise all along that the good old GFS was right Merry Christmas one and all or as we say in Wales, Nadolig Llawen

I'm talking about January 2021 not last year at 2022

There's a lot of talk of poor Januarys for the past decade yet Jan 2021 was a fantastic month for snowfall here in Wales, where it snowed and lay 3 weekends out of 4. No deep freeze but plenty of winter weather

You are a brave man! 100% at your peril!

Here’s my post from yesterday…the GFS didn’t make a complete flip but this morning’s output with such volatility in the finer details of the forecast the next few day’s are absolutely inevitable. Take a break and come back with some port, sherry and mince pies on Friday

And according to Judah Cohen we have been going into the armagedon winter of doom since time began

¡Exactamente! Why is it perceived this chart for Madrid is correct vs other runs? Respuestas postales por favor

Watch the GFS 12 upgrade further and then do a complete flip on the 00hrs only for the UKMO and ECM to come onboard. Almost certainly going head to head this week for a dramatic somewhat turbulent ride! Here’s my personal favourite for 850 hPa temps

I’m still quietly optimistic that my guess of 1.4 will be pretty close to the mark

An improvement this morning albeit not quite enough yet to bring most of Wales in the game for some festive weather but a few adjustments here and there and both Wales and Ireland should tap in on the action. Here's hoping for an upbeat positive day of modelling

Hallelujah for some decorum and sense! The polar vortex of doom posts are really tedious as are pinning hopes on SSW for any major cold outcomes. I much preferred observing the models before February 2018. Now we seem constantly fixed on MJO cycles and polar vortices post day 10!

“We had a few cold days” is just simply not accurate when we’ve had 8 CET means below 0! This hasn’t happened since 2010 and the beginning of December has been in the top 4 coldest starts to Winter in 300 years! I haven’t seen much snow but can still appreciate that this is a noteworthy spell of below average temperatures in an exceptional year for quite the contrary!

Although unlikely at this range, most snow here is in fact on the High ground of Mid and North Wales. It's frustrating seeing commentary that always forgets Wales exists to the west of England!

And that beautiful landmass to it's West, Wales not that this is likely to verify this far out. Interesting all the same!

Almost definitely now a Squirrel and not a Hare!