Cymro

What makes you so confident of this outcome? Show us a chart or two

I would much prefer that the snow was Yma o hyd rather than "coming home"

In some cases despite anguish in the mod thread, we in Wales are in a slightly better position with winds veering more Nwtly at times and convective roaring easterlies rarely deliver here unless it’s a breakdown scenario anyway. And to those of us to the west of the Beacons, Cambrian Mountains and Snowdonia, in general easterlies aren’t great for snow.

A friendly bit of advice following yesterday evening. Have a nice walk today, enjoy the cold breeze and come back tomorrow night rather than hang on every different run - tis no good for the soul!

I understand nerves but if you can't find positive outcomes with this current almost historical output I'm afraid you simply won't ever be satisfied. I've been a member of these forums for nearly 15 years and this is absolutely one of the most exciting build ups to a cold spell I've ever witnessed and I was here in 2010!!

Looking at some charts for Sunday and Monday a'i wouldn't at all be surprised if the hills if Powys, Eryri and Bannau Brycheiniog Get their first covering widely above about 350m. Could even see snow down to circa 150m in heavier showers, doubt it will settle much just yet, but a nice appetiser! And then mid week onwards we've got this to look forward to

Haha what’s new? the bigger picture rather than run to run over analysis is looking fantastic, the best it has in 12 years….

Mae'r peiriant eira ar fin tanio The snow machine is about to get started

This isn't true at all certainly if the wind becomes more northerly atm rather than easterly it will bring much lower temperatures as the Metoffice explained in the 10 day trends. Northerlies are brilliant if you live in Eastern and Western coastal areas or within say 25 miles or so of the windward coasts.

To be fair he does caveat his research with the fact this takes - NAO days singularly and not the effects of lengthier colder periods of weather associated with - NAO and as such there are only a few true episodes of - NAO collerating with deep lenghty cold spells such as 2010 in this research. It's a great benchmark but I do not see how it can be used during exceptional spells of - NAO and HLB as seen currently.

'All evidence points to the upcoming cold spell as totally meh' I'm sorry but how can you make another sweeping statement like this, just as last night but with no said evidence in your post to support it? What do you expect? Ice breakers on the Thames?

I've always been a strong believer in atmospheric balance and am not surprised in one bit to see the potential for large negative temperature anomalies for December after such an unbroken stint of above average months. I think the first major snows will reach us in Cymru a week Wednesday Before then let's enjoy a gradual cool down

And another one from James Peacock

After scrolling through Twitter last night I'm glad to see this thread resurrected

Today feels like a small milestone in the output with short term upgrades and larger long term upgrades with relation to the potential longevity of colder than average temperatures across large swathes of NH, NW Europe in particular. The biggest tell tale sign that something notable is on its way is the flurry if not Pembrokeshire dangler of tweets from level headed meteorologists across Twitter following today's latest output.

'The solid synoptics of a couple of days ago seemed to have collapsed.' In what way can synoptics collapse? Sorry if this is a silly question but I fail to understand your statement here Regardless of the final outcome on the ground.

1.4, 78mm

a Chymru hefyd ???????

This is one of my biggest frustrations with the warning system, but rightly described. I question the MO rationale with this however, as impacts shouldn’t be measured in the number of people alone. I.e danger to life is danger to 1 life just as it is to 1000 lives and no state funded warning system should place precedence on large populated centres alone. A tree could come down on a yellow warning in the mumbles (that would certainly be an amber in SE England) and kill a family yet by the ‘population rationale’ the weather event may have only impacted a few people. However, they weren’t sufficiently warned due to lack of media coverage and sense of urgency posed by higher level warnings. Numerous times Wales has faced severe flooding and only been issued a red warning as the weather event is well underway… simply irresponsible and not good enough!

Boris is far more likely to head off out to fly a highly expensive kite and insist this is nothing more than a gentle breeze!

I fail to understand what it is you’re seeking?

This sounds great how do you block them?

No it’s by the Irish sea ???????

Wales exists to the West of England just incase any posters seem to forget this. It is of much frustration that people often refer to geographical areas of the UK that are very obviously relevant to Wales i.e Central England or the West/South West but refrain from actually mentioning Wales! Please could I kindly ask posters to be mindful of the geography of the Isles of Great Britain and Ireland?

Is it too early to start shouting ‘Eira, Eira, Eira’? This has the classic build up, I’ve a feeling things will upgrade for Christmas eve onwards as well just based on historic climatic norms with southern corrections! Nadolig Llawen pawb bring on the Eira ️