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Everything posted by Cymro
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Cymro replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are there no other countries in the Uk bar England? -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Cymro replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Of course because only a handful of people live in Wales(South East Wales is home to over 60% of the population of Wales, over 1.4 million people……give me strength! There’s nothing worse than London centric arrogance! -
Coldest minima 2021-2022 predictions and recordings
Cymro replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
-27 Braemar -24 Sennybridge -
Are you sure you haven’t had frosts? Remember the air is dry so might not be visible but that doesn’t mean it’s not below freezing. My garden has been frozen solid and hasn’t once thawed since Sunday. A noteable cold spell but not for snow but constant low temperatures. This is pretty standard affair for easterlies in Wales IMO. But much better than rain and mild mush!
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Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season
Cymro replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Is it at all possible that the all time Scottish record minima could be in danger tonight? -
Judging by the Metoffice recent antics with amber warnings for dustings in England I wouldn't be surprised that we have no warning and a foot level snow. They just don't get Wales topography and population centres one bit within their warning system, it's one of the worst warning systems I have come across.
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It's a lot colder today than forecast, we have had heavy wet snow all morning with a temp of 1.9 degrees. Today was forecast to reach 6 degrees. I hope tonight's snow pushes further West because i firmly believe it will fall as snow to low levels once the cold air get's dragged with it and over takes it. It's cold already with showers off an Irish Sea (jst shows wat knocking two degrees of the Irish Sea (thanks to a cold Jan) has done. Works wonders.
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We have heavy Wet snow falling this morning which was a nice surprise. Hopefully the precipitation tonight is further West than forecast, will keep me happy then, otherwise it will be quite a boring cold spell. Having snow cover could really help us hit record breaking cold minima, without it, it's impossible.
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The talk of breakdown Thursday/Friday - which is great for prolonging the cold as it was Tuesday/Wednesday for disruptive snow moving in from the South West - but what that also mean is any meaningful snow cover (more than 10cm) isn't really evident in Wales for a good 7 days + and as I said yesterday this will be pushed back continuously. What we need is a slight northerly feed to the air stream even for a window of around 24 hours, enough to get showers across Wales. Happy to have an easterly then until the cows come home, it's long lasting snow cover I crave not depth of snow. It's really frustrating knowing that we will miss out on the opportunity of long lasting snow cover if it pans out like this, because once we have snow, the milder air will slowly dislodge the colder air and we will not have that lovely snowy spell. I know I'm being very IMBY because I really dislike easterlies (Apart from the Sunny weather element).
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This is exactly the point I have been trying to hammer home. There's so much hype with easterlies and they do bring some of the coldest air but they almost always keep Wales dry. It's frustrating because if we were to get snow coverage this weekend it would have almost certainly lasted on the ground a week and brought notable cold nights. This is exactly why easterlies bore me!
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A word of caution, snow charts far out re my point yesterday don't get hung up on them but as I also indicated LPs will get pushed further south as the cold air becomes entrenched leaving us mostly dry. Don't expect much snow in Wales (by much I mean 10cm+) for at least the next 5/7 days after that your guess is as good as mine. I'm just looking forward to blue skies and crisp dry weather with the odd fluttering flurry anything more is a bonus. Don't get sucked into the London centric media hype over this cold spell or disappointment will soon kick in.
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As in a week this Sunday? I've seen the ECM charts they look tasty but will absolutely change before then so try to manage expectations. It seems to me that there will be snow but perhaps not the battleground frontal snow we want due to the colder air being further south. I wouldn't bank on them even reaching Wales in the next 10 days. But I'm happy with dry and cold for now and hope I'm wrong about the snow but past experience has taught me not to get on the smowmaggedon express those in the East of England are currently riding, Wales rarely does well on a whole from a convective easterly,