mountain shadow

I'm not from Dundee originally but I will say that Dundee has more of a large town feel rather than a city feel. A lot of my friends from university in Dundee felt the same. It should probably be classified as a town.

I feel a bit sorry for Ian. After all if we do get a severe cold spell his credibility goes out the window, its know wonder he is crying out for any sort of less cold weather to save his 'even larger teapot' hypothesis. Who will possibly listen to him again if we get an 80's event over the next fortnight.

Bonnie Dundee?

Because the northerly isn't guaranteed yet. If the models continue to show the retrogression by this time tomorrow and by then it should have moved in to T+144 then i expect this to change. The Meto always play it safe, because it they were to suddenly go for a snowfest at T+240 and it didn't materialise they would be shot down in flames.

I think some are being harsh here, the weather over the weekend was defintely stormy in nature.

Me to, but then it tried to be all things to all men and i lost interest. Netweather and TWO are far better.

Heavy Snow in Carryduff, County Down, not sticking though.

Right, no sign of the PV around Greenland, no major cooling of the polar stratosphere, month after month of around average to below average temps, 2 major snowfall events and it ain't even Winter yet, Hale winter, more snow to come next week somewhere, we just don't know where yet, reliable timeframe shows below average temps for next week, persistance of mid atlantic high, zonality has done a bunk, my first ice day in five years yesterday. December has to be well below average doesn;t it? Put me down for 3.5oC.

Great pictures ! Do you call the day after Sunday a BarraMonday?

My summary of this Hurricane Season, is that unless it is strong Cat3+ in the 1st world, stop over ramping, they can cope.

This satellite picture on The Weather Channel site shows the sheer size of Ike. You can almost visualise the storm surge funnelling into the NW GOM as the storm moves that way. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satell...lite_large.html

Has anyone else noticed that NOAA rarely project a Cat 4 Or 5 at landfall until around 24 hours before hand? Is it a case of stopping panic or just that they don't have the ability at the moment? It does seem Ike will be Cat4 at landfall with very warm water and little shear to contend with.

Agreed. Lets not right this storm off yet. If its reduced intencity has surprised forecasters, i'm sure it could go the other way just as quickly.

Good news regarding the expected storm surge then. The Levees should just about hold.

What height storm surge did Katrina produce?

Excellent stuff GP, pity we don't get this much information from the Met on there longer term forecasts. I notice you disagree with there forecast in terms of rainfall...........good luck.

Latest update from the Associated Press. NO very much within the cone of probability. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVWjsPE...xGi8owD92SL2V80

Steve, I notice three of the models bend Gustav back into the Gulf withough hitting land, any reason for this?

Take care WeatherChick. Over the pond we might complain about the weather but we never experience the extremes that you do. What is the general feeling in NO at the moment? If Gustav is as bad as Katrina will citizens return to rebuild? Do you feel it would be worth it?

But would high pressure not imply frost at night there by lowering the average temperature? Also, if the jet was roaring, any low pressure system might zip through quickly there by lowering the rainfall amounts. You can see how the lack of detail can lead to increased speculation and indeed shows how the MET can arrive at a 'correct' forecast from different weather patterns.

Cheers chaps, from my readings, Gustavs landfall will not coincide with a particularly high tide, one positive to be taken I suppose. Has anyone else been particularly impressed with the model output/forecasting on this? Seems very much improved or am i just imagining things? Our very own members have been on the money as well.

SE Texas = SW Louisiana. From my understanding of Katrina the wind strength is not the major player but storm surge plus heavy rainfall. Can anyone get some info on when the high tide is in NO? Does it coincide with Gustavs projected landfall?

Amazing situation occuring. If it hits NO and the levees breach again, surely the city would have to be abandoned?

Doesn't actually say much does it? It would be nice if they could at least comment on whether it would stormier or not than average as well.