mountain shadow

Advisory out now for more heavy rain in the Provence. I notice they are not mentioning expected rain totals yet. From The Met.... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=2

Local forecast preparing us for up to another 60mm of rain over the weekend. Fields flooded everywhere as it is. Shocking stuff.

It was ever thus. Anything outside the South East isn't worth reporting. There has been serious flooding over here but nothing on National TV. The local news is much better. This from the BBC NI site.....http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/foyle_and_west/7546339.stm

I think it would be fair to say that storms form near NF every autumn due to the interaction between cold polar air and a warmer ocean. Whether those storms run into the Uk is a different matter. With an earlier post alluding to a Polar Vortex towards Alaska and a Greenland High, this would indicate a southerly jet with the Uk and Ireland in the firing line for storms.

Below average, dismal depresssing and wet......15.7oC

A depressingly below average 15.9oC for me.

I never post my guess until Mr Data has given us a run down. I would be particularly interested in hot July's following below average/average June's?

14.5oC for me

Chucking it down again on the Costa Del Rainstorm. Weather has been pretty poor by Spanish standards this last weel and a half. Current Temp in Salou, Catalomia 16oC, lashing down.

On holiday in Salou, Catalonia. Torrential Rain all day which has just stopped. Temperature around 14C. Not good. The fact I am on here says it all.

Interesting that, my wife's cousin reckons he had 24C in Enniskillen. Somewhere well to the West of NI might well get there before the cloud moves in.

Excellent post GP, however I'm in a quandry as to whether a predicted -NAO would support warmer than average conditions in the UK. With a ridge centered north of the Uk, an Easterly may not necessarily be warm depending on actual positioning, Eastern coasts would be particularly cool I would think, with western areas warmer.

Not much on the radar, maybe stay up for another hour or two.

Nought happening in the emerald isle at present. Have me eye on he precip. currently over western scotland, hopefully will arrive here in he early hours.

Below average first half of the month, followed by an above average second half............... 8.2 for me

If ever there was a chart showing the fine margins between rain/sleet & snow, that it is. I wonder as we get closer to the time if it will become occluded.

Would I be right in saying no one is really expecting an accumalation of snow at low levels. I.e the best to be hoped for is overnight snow which will melt quickly during the day? With snow during the day not sticking or melting quickly?

How long will it take you to drive to Svalbard?

Down to T+204 and this is one of the best charts yet.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2042.png

Still looking good at T+216

Now down to T+228 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.png Whether this be rain or snow I do not know.

Into the T+252 range and still looking good, tomorrow is much more interesting as it will come within T+240. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

Happy Easter, widespread blizzard (except for the south east) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3242.png I'm not sure it will be that bad, but it will be colder than average for sure.

It's the two weeks after that where it will take a tumble. 4 degree maxes and sub zero lows. My 4.4 bid could be looking good. Is there a prize for the best guess?

I for one have been pretty scathing about GFS this winter, but really has been very consistent in picking up this pattern change to something much colder. The ECM appears to be on board and the furthest out UKMO stalls the trigger low in mid atlantic. Given the El Nina forecast I would hypothesis that IF the Greenland block does materialise then it will last at least 14 days if not longer. Cannot argue with your thoughts John, I wish I understood the mechanisms whish cause the low to stall mid-atlantic with subsequent pressure rises as well as yourself.