Dangerous55019

Morning all I hear what people are saying about lack of rain causing a false autumn, and leaves turning etc, but on Wednesday I popped over to the Ffestiniog Railway, in the top left hand corner of Wales, and just outside of Tanygrisiau station I noticed these trees!! Now being just a mile outside of Blaenau Ffestiniog I know that lack of rain certainly isn't a problem. False autumn, or genuinely on the turn? ... I'll let you folks decide

Whatever the outcome Iapennell I think you should be applauded for the hard work you've put into this forecast

Just been having a look and cherry picked this chart for next Tuesday afternoon I know its a long way off and that the chances of this happening are pretty remote, but hey... Its a nice chart to look at ... Memo to self: Please remember that I'm still receiving counselling after the last Spanish plume event failed to deliver anything more than one poxy clap of thunder for my area

I see that Gavs Weather Vids have done part two of the Autumn 2016 Analogues... This looks at autumns where we have gone from El Nino to Enso neutral... And the one trend that sticks out, id the fact that there isn't really a trend!! http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

I think that the remains of most of them are currently splattered across my cars windscreen

Nick, shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!! Don't speak too soon!! Lol Afternoon all, not much I can add to whats already been said, but what a beautiful summers day it is today

Evening Good Doing Weather I also like that term 'Soft Air'. Soft autumnal air... I like it Evening SPP You're right, November 2005 is largely forgotten about, but now you've mentioned it it was a good month... And later on really quite chilly around these parts. Who knows, hopefully November 2016 could deliver something similar? ... So if any of the Weather Gods out there are listening (or reading this forum), it would be nice if Autumn 2016 could go out with a November like this

Speaking as someone who's been out and about since 05.00 this morning, but something has changed in the night... When I went to bed its was summer (albeit a tad blustery), but today is full on autumn!! Don't believe me? Just step outside for five minutes and you'll see and feel what I mean Personally I've every confidence that summer will make some form of comeback, but autumn has just gained a much stronger foot hold, as the seasons begin to change again ... But please don't ask me whats changed... I've no idea... But something has

Fingers crossed that it'll be a good weekend for you Pete

Evening Pete Like you, I've found today to be a pretty half decent sort of day, granted its been 'blustery' but at least it got rid of that horrendous grey gloom and the sun was out for pretty decent periods In all fairness, if the whole of the summer had have been like this (with possibly a few more Spanish Plume events) the I probably wouldn't have moaned

Evening all I noticed that the Canadian long range Cansips model has been updated again this week, so here is the latest of what its showing... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016080100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=216 September does look as though low pressure could have more of an influence than normal. October on the other hand does look to be high pressure dominated!! Not only that (now this is assuming that I'm reading the chart correctly) but the high pressure looks to be centered over us would could 'hopefully' give us the cool (dare I say frosty at this stage??), but hopefully sunny conditions, and possibly the odd bout of misty and fog. November... Now I've had a look at this closely, and if you do look closely its not quite the Atlantic driven horror story that it first appears... If you zoom in on the image, it shows low pressure to the north and west (sorry Scotland and Northern Ireland) but there does appear to be a very shallow ridge of high pressure over England and Wales!! Now I'm no expert, and maybe I'm reading these charts wrongly, likewise, I know long range forecasts are just for fun, and looking for trends, but, but, but, but, I'd say that there is still all to play for at this stage, and hopefully a pleasantly calm, benign, sunny, frosty, foggy autumn could still yet happen... With the odd storm thrown in of course? I'll take that with pleasure

Hopefully a taster of the coming season this morning A misty/foggy start to the day here in North East Wales... Once again this lifted my autumnal spirits no end As the old weather folk lore says "Observe on what day the first heavy fog occurs, and expect a hard frost on the same day in October."... Time will tell

I see that Gavs Weather Vids have just issued the Second Autumn 2016 model update http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ It does rather say that an Atlantic driven autumn is on the cards... But I do wonder if these computer models are picking up on the fact that the hurricane season could be about to start getting going?

The other day I commented that I'd noticed a few trees starting to gain their autumn plumage... So today I managed to grab a few photos Ok... There're not the best photos I know But I'd say that they're on the turn

Evening Mapantz I've just found the clip on the Radio 4 web page that explains about the autumn song of the robin. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b038qhyz The robins are here all year round, but they change their song in the autumn/winter when compared to the spring and summer.

Looking at the Saturday 6th of August chart in particular as I have a barbecue that evening. Its worth remembering that by then a big chunk of the UK will have left the world of the lingering twilight, so with the jet steam stepping up a gear at about the same time, could this be one of the first autumnal storms of the season is this chart comes off??

Just the odd 'lite passing shower' virtually every day TONA. Lol Which (as you can see) managed to softened the ground up a little. Lol I'll try and get some pics for you so you can see what I mean

Another sign that autumn is fast approaching, I've just heard the autumn song of the robin, from the woodland behind the horses stables. They normally change their song after they've finished moulting. The robin's autumn song is one of the soundtracks to shortening days, gathering mists and ripening fruit (as I heard it put on the radio 4 one morning) (Not my photo by the way... It was just one I found after a quick Googling session)

Well, although yesterday started off on a dull, grey and wet note, yesterday afternoon and evening turned very pleasant and summer like But sadly it couldn't last... As now we are once again back to dull grey cloudy skies. *sigh*

Evening Lauren I know exactly where you're coming from. No heatwave for me... Just the sunny days that do the trick

That's the stuff that most chemists sell... trust me it does work

Evening MP-R Yes... 12th September 2011 as a very windy day indeed! We did have October and November frosts back in 2013... I need to check my records, but I'm sure that we even managed a frost day back in November 2013 as well. But for the record, my last recorded frost in September was back in 2012... I think we dropped down to -2'C on the 22nd of September... But I'd have to check. ... And I should point out that the -2 was recorded by me and not at an official weather station

I have to say that today whilst sorting the horses out I noticed that a few of the trees are just starting to gain their autumn plumage!! Just felt I'd share that with you all

Hopefully you'll start to notice the benefits very soon then

Seconded, thirded and fourthed B87