Dangerous55019

Today is the spring equilux... Apparently

I remember it well, it was really quite impressive

Just been pottering about in the garden (being as I'm on holiday for the week), and i looked up and saw this stunning cloudscape bubbling up the otherside of the mountains. If only it was summer *sigh*

WOW!! What a day!! Eleven trees down here!! Still plenty of fresh firewood, so in that sense, thank you Doris

According XC Weather, looks like winds could be starting to pick up over the SW and Western parts of Wales already. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Oh please, not another half baked, dull grey easterly

Well, I've just been having a quick look at how the CFS see's Spring 2017 panning out... March does look like it could be a month of many weathers. April looks fairly high pressure doninated. And by the time we get to May, the high pressure seems to have slipped further south, although still covering the southern half of the UK. So based upon this, I'd say that with the exception of March, we could be looking at quite a dry and warmish spring!! But will it pan out like this? ... Time will tell

Morning snowsummer A repeat of the summer of 76 you say? Well, Just remember that the summer of 76 stated in the summer of 75 (ok, the dry spell started in the winter 74/75 to be fully pedantic), but since last summer (which was dryer than average IMBY), we've also had a dryer than average autumn, and a dryer than average winter, so a lot does hang on what Spring 17 can do. And swerving swiftly, and fully back on topic........ I must have a look at what the Cansips and CFS are currently forecast for this coming spring.

Morning MP-R I like your thinking, Although sadly February is turning into just another gloomfest, there is still hope for March, April and May

... Encouraging signs now starting to appear over towards the west

Well, this is about as exciting as it stands here in North East Wales... Hardly a supercell is it? ... Still the day is young, and there is some heat in the sun (for February anyway), and being as the other Saturday's convective cloudscape fest didn't kick off until mid afternoon, I am still hopeful of seeing some convective cloudscapes before the day is out.

Evening everyone Whilst washing the car this afternoon I noticed some great anvils just the other side of the Clwydian Range... They just need to get that little bit more energy in them. Still not complaining, as its made a nice change from the recent grey gloom

I see that Gavs Weather Vids has done a Spring 2017 Analogues video... Well, I'll let you folks watch it, and draw your own conclusions. http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

The first spring like day of 2017 from a totally IMBY perspective was a couple of weeks ago on Sunday the 8th of January... There was some real noticeable warmth in the sun that day. But recently I've noticed the other song birds starting to sing (as well as the robin), and the Bluebells and daffodils are slowly starting to sprout out of the ground as well. Nature is slowly but surely awakening from its winter slumber.

Morning everyone, I've just been having a look at the 'weeks 1 to week 4 anomalies charts' from the CFS, and after this week of anti cyclonic gloom, it does look as though the zonal train is going to be much more of an influence to our weather. ... Yes I know, its the CFS, and yes I know it can change at the drop of a hat, but I can only comment on what I'm seeing... And I'm also sorry if this isn't what people want to see or hear.

A day of gusty and convective heavy hail showers here... And by the looks of it another one is incoming

At the risk of being torn limb from limb by fetching the CFS into the 'Easterly Debate', it does appear to be highlighting some form of easterly flow next week. Now I know that many will criticise the CFS, but I find it a very useful tool when looking for trends

Evening @ukpaul Just remember that an SSW normally take a few weeks to have any impact.

Hello, looks like the Weather Gods might be answering me

After a day of heavy, cold raw wet rain, it finally started snowing here in Flintshire at about 15.30!! It only lasted for about half an hour or so, but enough to turn the grass pale green But once it had cleared, the skies over towards the Liverpool/ North area looked very convective... Would it be greedy if I now asked the weather gods for some thunder snow?

Morning everyone, just grey, raw and wet here in North East Wales. Mind you, I did see at least a couple of blobs of sleet earlier when out with the dog, and the main snow event (if its gonna happen here) is forecast from this evening onwards.

Here in North Wales its been a blustery ole day, but over the past hour or so the wind has dropped considerably. Definitely not cold enough for snow as yet... But according to the BBC its tomorrow evening that the fun really begins for my part of the world. But as @mpkio2 has said, things are complex, and changing very rapidly... I also think that this will come down to a Now Casting event.

Well, we've passed the point of mid winter, and day light is slowly increasing... So the long range freak in me is naturally starting to think ahead to spring, and what will it bring? Will we get a March like 2012, and an April like 2007 (or 2015), followed by a hot and thundery May? Or will we get that taste of winter like March 2013, and April 2016? Or will it be a season of many weathers? What would you like Spring 2017 to bring to us here in the UK? Personally I'd like to see traditional month of March, a month of many weathers, ranging from snow, with strong squally winds, to that first nice seasonal burst of spring warmth, but with cool nights, and an occasional foggy start. As for April, I'm all in favour of some squally showers, before slowly giving way to pleasant sunny days. And finally, the month of May, this is the time when I like to see the first true burst of summer heat, so I can get the barbecue out accompanied by a good old thundery breakdown So what are everyone else's thoughts, hopes and wishes for spring 2017? PS. Mods, if I've put this in the wrong place, or I'm too early, then feel free to move or delete as required.

Right... From totally IMBY, and memeory perspective, 2016. It did have a few better points, as well as many low ones... One of the high points being a very seasonal, gentle mellow and foggy autumn January: Started off on the wet note that had begun back in November 2015, but it did give us a week of winter(!!) with snow and thunder! February: By the middle of February we had actually achieved a run of sunny days which gave me hope that the gloomfest of winter 2015/16 was finally over. March: Came in like a lion, and out like a lamb... On the whole a reasonable month, a bit of all sorts, but not a total wash out, with pleasant of pleasant sunny days, but towards the end of the month, we had some spectacular convective cloudscapes, with even the odd rumble of thunder and hail April: A coldish cooler month, with snow on the hills. Many sunny days, and a few wet(ish) ones as well. Again towards the end of the month, a good convective spell giving some spectacular cloudscapes. May: Started off pleasant enough, but the first weekend gave us our first Spanish Plume of the season, with a half reasonable thunderstorm, plus hill fog, also a month of many weathers, but on the whole, not too bad, and generally sunny June: The middle of the month sticks out in my mind for going 'BANG'!! Thunderstorms a plenty, day after day, but once the storms had gone, then sadly summer 2016 started to turn into a gloomfest. *sigh* July: Most days started off sunny and promising, but by 10.00 to 11.00 each day seemed to turn into a total gloomfest... It was like a re-run of the winter beforehand, only with less rain. Then there was the 19th of July, a freak hot/very hot day! A day in which I remember seeing over 2500 j/kg of CAPE and a lifted index of -5 (off the top of my head) and all we managed was one poxy clap of thunder the next day August: Early on, had some early morning fog that were very autumnal feeling, followed by a few sunny days (the 6th of August being a very pleasant summers day) before the daily gloomfest started once more. Dry but gloomy. But we had another warm spell around the middle of the month. Although around the end of the month the was another quite impressive little thunderstorm... A night time rattler if my memory serves me correctly. September: A warm month that gave us at last a taste of summer, and it turned out to be our last taste of summer. Also the first autumn storm (rain wise), and another thunderstorm on the 13 of the month. October: A generally calm and foggy month, but with plenty of sunshine, but feeling much, much cooler, and a windy day around the 27th of the month ... Can we have more Octobers like this please? November: A notable chill in the air had set in by now, but still reasonably sunny, with foggy starts and ends to the days, and a frost end to the month, although there was a very wet spell around mid month. December: Started off chilly but warmed up, but apart from a couple 'winter storms' around Christmas nothing spectacular, although the year has ended on a rather pleasant and frosty note. So there you have it, not the most exciting year on record, some good bits, and other bits that I hope aren't repeated in a hurry... Namely the gloomfest parts.

At the risk of being ripped limb from limb for fetching the CFS into whats going to happen in two weeks time, lets have a look at it... (And before anyone says it, I know that the CFS can be about as reliable as trying to hit 180 on a rotating dart board, but I actually do find it a very good model when looking for 'trends'). ... The first image shows the week encompassing Christmas day, and you can see high pressure centred to the north of the UK. This would give us easterly or south easterly winds, but there is a low pressure area just off the coast of Ireland The second image is from the CFS daily run, and we can see high pressure over to the North east of the UK with quite a vigorous area of low pressure just off the coast of Ireland... This would give us South easterly to southerly winds on the day itself. And finally lets have a look at the GFS (06z) for the big day itself... This is actually very similar to what the long range CFS is showing, but with a really impressive dartboard low off the coast of Ireland. My take on the situation is that I think Christmas day itself will see high pressure domination over much of the UK, with winter sunshine; there might be some overnight frost, but no easterly, and no snow unless you're in the highlands of Scotland. Sorry if that's not what you want to hear (or see), but that's what I'm seeing. And my gut instinct is that this will be quite close to the mark.